Precious metals news

The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is poised to significantly influence the markets for gold, silver, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), copper, and crude oil. Regardless of whether the current political balance of power remains or shifts, the anticipated policy debates and adjustments in response to public opinion are expected to shape market dynamics. Notably, a potential change in administration could lead to reduced environmental spending impacting copper and silver negatively, while possibly benefiting PGMs and fossil fuels. The election's outcome will also affect America's foreign policy stance, particularly towards China and Iran, further influencing gold and oil prices.

In the midst of escalating geopolitical tensions, gold and copper have become key commodities, not just weathering market volatility but flourishing. Gold, a long-established safe-haven asset, has seen prices soar to near record highs due to its appeal in uncertain times, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, significantly boosting their reserves—290 tons in the first quarter of 2024 alone, a record according to the World Gold Council. This trend underscores a strategic pivot towards gold as a reserve currency, moving away from the U.S. dollar, and suggests that both gold and copper may be at the start of a prolonged bull market that investors should closely watch.

On Friday, Peter participated in an exhilarating debate over the merits of gold and Bitcoin. Professor of economics Nouriel Rabini joined Peter to debate Erik Voorhees and Anthony Scaramucci, two proponents of Bitcoin. They cover a lot of ground in their 2+ hour debate, so be sure to watch the full video on Peter’s youtube channel.

With the eventual introduction of central bank digital currency (CBDCs) now seemingly inevitable, there are a lot of directions central banks could take with their digital currency projects that would have dramatic implications for the price of gold.

Inflation is reshaping the American middle-class dream. Once believing that a six-figure income would ensure a comfortable lifestyle with regular vacations and the ability to buy a home, many people today with "good jobs" find achieving these goals is nearly impossible. The reality of saving for a house or planning for future financial security feels out of reach for many, reflecting a broader trend where many in the middle class feel financially strained despite growing earnings and stable employment.

China's aggressive gold purchasing has significantly influenced the market, driving prices to over $2,400 per ounce amid global instability from conflicts like Ukraine's invasion and the Gaza war. This trend persists due to diminished confidence in traditional Chinese investments such as real estate and stocks, combined with the nation's central bank increasing its gold reserves and reducing U.S. debt holdings. Additionally, Chinese speculators anticipate further price gains, enhancing China's already substantial impact on the global gold market. This surge continues despite typical deterrents like rising interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar, marking a nearly 50% price increase since late 2022.

The U.S. debt is escalating to unprecedented levels, and according to a former White House economist, Generation Z will bear the financial brunt of this burden, which has been exacerbated by previous generations and worsened by the Treasury Department's missed opportunities to mitigate the impact.

Crude oil's geopolitical risk premium, a surge in price due to fears of a broader Middle East conflict, has disappeared as tensions between Israel and Iran have eased. With the diminished threat of conflict, market volatility has returned to multiyear lows, and the options market now leans towards puts, indicating reduced expectations of price spikes. Factors like interest rates, OPEC+ supply adjustments, and global demand now dominate pricing considerations. According to Tanvir Sandhu from Bloomberg Intelligence, the likelihood of Brent crude reaching $100 by the year's end has dropped significantly, from 17% to just 9%, reflecting a stabilization in the market and creating new trading opportunities.

U.S. Treasuries are generating substantial income for investors, marking a significant turnaround from nearly two decades of low returns due to zero-rate policies. As benchmark rates climbed from nearly 0% to over 5% within just two years, investors now see a reliable source of income in these government bonds. Last year, investors earned nearly $900 billion from U.S. government debt, a figure that's double the average of the previous decade. Moreover, over 90% of Treasuries now offer coupons of at least 4%, providing a strong buffer against potential rate hikes. This resurgence highlights Treasuries’ renewed role as a dependable economic staple, capable of delivering consistent annual returns.

Are you ready to witness the potential explosion in silver prices?

Gold prices are up as mixed economic signals emerged from the U.S., prompting optimism about a potential "soft landing" for the economy amid ongoing Federal Reserve efforts to combat inflation. The metal saw a 1% rise on Monday, recovering after two consecutive weeks of losses—the first since February. This rebound reflects investor reactions to a recent U.S. jobs report, which suggested a slowing economy and alleviated fears of a recession coupled with high inflation. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that such data trends could support a case for easing monetary policy this year. Despite these challenges, gold has surged approximately 12% this year, bolstered by central bank purchases, demand from Asian markets, and safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions.

Gold prices rose on Monday due to a weakening U.S. dollar, following a disappointing U.S. jobs report that raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Spot gold increased by 0.8% to $2,320.33 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose by 0.9% to $2,329.10. The underwhelming job growth and slowing wage increases suggest room for potential rate reductions by the Fed in 2024, according to Ricardo Evangelista, a senior analyst at ActivTrades.

After the Silver price broke out above the Daily Falling Wedge today, what's next? That's a good question.  That's why I wanted to provide a quick update on what the technical charts show for Silver in the short term.  Interestingly, the charts show both a Bullish & Bearish short-term setup...

If you are a Central bank, you are buying Gold, not Bitcoin.  Central banks have purchased a record amount of Gold over the past two years, and this trend continues in 2024.  Central banks rely upon the stable, less volatile 2,500-year history of the king monetary metal over the highly speculative Bitcoin...

In April, the U.S. economy added a disappointing 175,000 jobs, falling short of expectations and nudging unemployment up to 3.9% (see current trends here). This signals a slowing economy that might force the Federal Reserve to put the guard rails back on. Our guest commentator gives a deeper look at a worrisome trajectory: while part-time jobs are on the rise, full-time employment has plummeted, hinting at a coming recession.

Cocoa prices have dumped since rocketing to a dramatic peak last month as an El Nino cycle winds down and traders rush out of the illiquid market. For now, depreciating fiat currencies are still keeping the cocoa price still far above its 2023 levels. Coffee has had a similar rise and subsequent correction — but now, inflation and other factors are conspiring to brew a pot of strong fuel for more upward price action in markets for the world’s other favorite bean.

Last week Scott Melker interviewed Peter on The Wolf of All Streets podcast. They have a friendly discussion about Bitcoin’s future, the differences between gold and crypto, and the overlap in the crypto and precious metals movements.

Over the last decade, many economists have promoted the use of debt to finance government spending, dismissing concerns about potential debt overhangs as advanced economies enjoyed low interest rates. However, the past two years have seen a significant shift in this perspective due to rising inflation and a return to normal long-term real interest rates. A recent reassessment by senior IMF economists highlights that with average debt-to-income ratios in advanced economies projected to rise to 120% of GDP by 2028 and higher borrowing costs becoming the norm, there is a pressing need for these nations to rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure the sustainability of their debt.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates, emphasizing the need for "greater confidence" that inflation will consistently approach the 2% target. Despite earlier hopes, inflation in early 2024 has exceeded expectations, leading to predictions that even if the Fed were to cut rates later this year, high interest rates on credit cards and mortgages are likely to persist through the end of 2024. Given the declining APYs on longer-term CDs and some high-yield savings accounts, now is an opportune moment to secure higher savings rates.

With inflation remaining high and interest rates elevated, reviewing your investment portfolio this May is more crucial than ever. Gold, which reached its highest investment level in over a decade last year and has been breaking price records recently, presents a unique opportunity. Unlike traditional assets like stocks and bonds, gold operates differently and offers distinct benefits. Considering the current economic conditions, there are several compelling reasons to consider adding gold to your portfolio this month.