Precious metals news

During the pandemic, Americans saved an impressive $2.1 trillion, fueling sustained consumer spending and economic resilience amidst rising interest rates and persistent inflation. However, recent reports from San Francisco Federal Reserve economists Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Edgard Oliveira indicate that these pandemic-era savings are now depleted, with many Americans having more debt than savings as of March 2024. This shift from savings to debt raises concerns about the future of consumer spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy. With the depletion of excess savings and an increase in consumer debt and delinquencies, there are growing worries about potential economic downturns.

In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, the Federal Reserve introduced the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to stabilize the financial sector, but this program has recently expired. Simultaneously, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has been delayed indefinitely due to ongoing high inflation. This delay means that banks continue to face tough competition from higher-yielding money market funds for depositors. This dual pressure of the expired assistance program and the deferral of rate cuts poses significant challenges for banks, suggesting that now might be an opportune time to bet against them.

The "Flash Crash" wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market value in minutes, leading to significant regulatory reforms.

Three years after the initial economic disruptions of 2021 and 2022, the lingering effects of those events are still significantly influencing inflation rates in 2024. The primary driver of the current inflation, particularly in the shelter sector where rents and homeowners' equivalent rent have increased by 6.1% annually, stems from these past disruptions. According to Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker, this persistent high inflation is more about "lagged catch-up" rather than a new wave of increases, suggesting that once these residual effects dissipate, inflation is expected to stabilize without further severe economic consequences. This pattern is also evident in other sectors, such as motor vehicle insurance, which has seen a 22.2% rise over the last year.

Peter’s back to recap the last week in markets and economic news. This episode starts with April’s dismal stock performance and also discusses Jerome Powell’s most recent appearance. Peter wraps up the episode by recounting the Bitcoin debate he participated in on Friday.

Oil prices dropped to their lowest levels since mid-March, exacerbated by a bearish US stockpile report indicating increased inventory levels. Brent crude approached $82 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate hovered around $77. Industry estimates suggest a significant rise in crude stockpiles at Cushing, along with increased gasoline and distillate inventories nationwide. This uptick in stockpiles is just one component of a broader market softening, evidenced by negative trends in weekly derivatives and timespreads, suggesting an oversupply not seen since March. The ongoing price decline, which has been consistent over the past month, reflects reduced geopolitical risks and a shifting focus towards the weakening market demand.

On Wednesday, the dollar regained some strength, buoyed by diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the yen continued its decline, prompting Japanese officials to intensify warnings about potential interventions to support the currency. As the yen hit a 34-year low, dropping to around 160 yen against the dollar, Japan reportedly spent about $60 billion last week in efforts to stabilize it. Meanwhile, in Europe, the Swedish crown weakened following a rate cut by its central bank, which also anticipates two additional reductions this year, and the British pound remained low as markets awaited the Bank of England’s upcoming meeting.

Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan is raising alarms over “phantom debt,” a growing concern stemming from the popularity of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) platforms like Affirm Holdings, Klarna, and Block Inc.’s Afterpay. These platforms, which let consumers split purchases into installments, do not report these transactions to credit agencies. This lack of transparency is troubling for market analysts and economists as it obscures a complete picture of American financial health—a critical element for predictions and planning by central banks, regional lenders, and businesses. This hidden debt layer emerges alongside increasing delinquencies in auto loans and credit cards, suggesting potential cracks in consumer financial stability amidst persistent inflation.

Gold prices remained stable Wednesday, balancing between geopolitical tensions that boosted its safe-haven appeal and a strengthening U.S. dollar that typically diminishes gold's attractiveness to investors holding other currencies. Despite fluctuating conditions, spot gold was flat at $2,315.98 per ounce by midday GMT, while U.S. gold futures saw a minimal decrease of 0.01% to $2,324.00. The dollar's recovery, influenced by speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, contrasts with the ongoing uncertainty regarding inflation and the Fed's future monetary policy. With traders estimating a 65% likelihood of a rate cut by September, gold's status and pricing reflect a complex interplay of market forces and economic indicators.

Due to the strong U.S. dollar, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes since March 2022, China's central bank, among others, is increasingly investing in gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty. With the Dollar Index up 10% since early 2022, the cost of imports for emerging nations like China has surged, further driving their shift towards gold. This trend has led to a record spike in gold prices, as evidenced by China's central bank adding 60,000 troy ounces to its reserves in April alone, marking the 18th consecutive month of significant gold acquisitions.

In 2009, 140 banks failed, and a recent report from financial consulting firm Klaros Group says that hundreds of banks are at risk of going under this year. It’s being billed mostly as a danger for individuals and communities than for the broader economy, but for stressed lenders across America, a string of small bank failures could quite quickly spread into a larger bloodbath — especially in an economy with hot inflation and a feverish addiction to ultra-low interest rates.

The notion that huge Chinese gold demand is driving the price may have some merit after all.  According to GoldChartsRus.com, there was a massive $1 billion worth of gold moved into one of the Chinese Gold ETFs just yesterday. Here is the most recent Gold Depositories update as of May...

China's central bank added to its gold reserves for the 18th consecutive month in April, though the rate of acquisition has slowed due to soaring gold prices. The People’s Bank of China, a major player in the bullion market, purchased 60,000 troy ounces in April, a significant decrease from the 160,000 ounces bought in March and 390,000 in February. This slowdown occurs as gold prices hit record highs, impacting demand even as first-quarter purchases by central banks globally were the strongest on record, driven in part by these institutions, as noted by the World Gold Council and supported by insights from Goldman Sachs on continued potential in emerging markets.

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar saw a slight decline overall but gained strength against the Japanese yen amidst ongoing expectations of significant interest rate differentials. Despite recent warnings from Japanese officials about potential interventions to support the yen, the U.S. dollar's resilience highlights the anticipation of continued disparity in monetary policies. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, indicated the possibility of taking action against disorderly, speculative foreign exchange movements, following two suspected interventions last week that totaled nearly $60 billion.

Crude oil futures climbed on Tuesday after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed a Hamas-approved cease-fire proposal as "sabotage," committing instead to continue military operations in Rafah, Gaza. Netanyahu critiqued the proposal for falling short of Israel's essential demands. This rejection comes amid ongoing conflict, with Israeli forces taking control of the Rafah border crossing, an action that drew criticism from Egypt, which has been mediating the cease-fire talks. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant asserted that operations in Rafah would persist until their objectives regarding Hamas are met.

Copper prices briefly soared above $10,000 a ton amid investor optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and a warning from Goldman Sachs about escalating supply shortages. The surge was part of a broader rally in risk assets, sparked by weaker-than-expected U.S. job figures, which fueled speculation of imminent Fed rate reductions. Despite a slight retreat in European trading, the outlook for copper remains bullish, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances. Goldman Sachs has responded by lifting its year-end copper price forecast from $10,000 to $12,000 a ton.

In this deep dive, Mike Maloney unpacks the complexities of our current economic landscape with sharp precision.

US Treasuries are generating unprecedented returns, paying out about $2 million per minute in interest, as yields have surged to over 4% from virtually zero just two years ago. This dramatic shift, spurred by rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, has revitalized Treasuries as a stable source of income, reflecting their traditional economic role. Last year alone, interest payments on US government debt nearly doubled the decade's average to $900 billion, with projections from the Congressional Budget Office expecting this figure to continue rising annually.

Gold's price rebound has stalled this week, remaining capped below $2330 as it shows little response to US bond yields, the US dollar, or recent geopolitical developments. The market has entered a phase of consolidation, maintaining a narrow trading range with support near $2286 and resistance at $2330. Despite the general upward momentum, gold has struggled to break above the $2330 mark, largely unaffected by stable US bond yields and the dollar, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions. For now, traders are favoring a range-bound strategy until a clear directional signal emerges.

China's "silver economy," driven by the middle-aged and elderly populations, is sparking a new gold rush. In 2023, retail sales from large-scale jewelry enterprises soared to 331 billion RMB ($45.7 billion), marking a 13.3% year-over-year increase, one of the highest growth rates across consumer goods. This surge in demand, both for personal adornment and investment, has prompted a significant uptick in new business registrations in the jewelry sector. Over 2.6 million new companies were registered from January to October 2023 alone, demonstrating an 89.9% increase from the previous year.