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The World Bank Warns ‘Perfect Storm’ of Stagflation and Global RecessionSep 30, 2022 - 11:42:19 PDT
Global institutions including the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization have both warned that countries around the world are sliding into a “global recession,” and experts say a combination of low growth and persistent inflation, known as stagflation, is a very real risk—especially for developing economies.
Germany on Thursday announced a €200 billion ($195bn) bailout plan to protect people and businesses from the fallout of Europe's energy crisis.
Rising Interest Rates Are Painful, But The Alternative Would Ultimately Lead To Much Worse.
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says liquidity risk needs more attention and expresses his concerns about central bank interventions...
Sep 30, 2022 - 08:56:39 PDT
The majority of chief financial officers at top companies believe inflation is set to get worse in the United States, with nearly 20 percent stating the country is already in a recession.
Sep 30, 2022 - 08:45:51 PDT
Economist Peter Navarro, erstwhile adviser to former President Donald Trump, told Epoch TV's "Crossroads" program in a recent interview that the current stagflationary downturn stalking the U.S. economy is "just the beginning" of America's economic woes and that Trump is the one who's best poised to pull the country out of a dire slump.
Unrelenting Inflation Is Taking a Toll, Leaving More Americans Living Paycheck to PaycheckSep 30, 2022 - 08:42:12 PDT
With persistent inflation weighing on consumers, even high earners are feeling financially strained.
With many developing countries heading toward debt crises, the immediate priority for the international community is to avert more Sri Lanka-style meltdowns. That will require reforms to an outdated global debt-restructuring framework, as well as better use of existing institutions and policy instruments.
The price of deeper out-of-the-money insurance in equities is falling, implying lower demand for crash insurance. This suggests the market believes the Fed put is getting closer.
Brent Neiman, a counselor to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, urged China to "take part in coordinated debt relief for vulnerable nations to avoid the specter of a systemic sovereign-debt crisis," Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s push to de-dollarize the Russian economy is paving the way for the Chinese yuan to play a larger role in the country.
On September 27, I reported New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August. My comment then was "I highly doubt this number will survive revisions.” One of my reasons was that new home sales are counted at contract signing whereas existing home sales are counted at closing. Cancellations have been huge.
The headline from the UMich Sentiment survey continues to be inflation expectations which fell once again in September's final data to 4.7%.However, that is above expectations of 4.6% and above the flash print of 4.6% from early September.
...another recession red flag...
Sep 30, 2022 - 06:58:23 PDT
Today’s core PCE deflator reading of 4.9% YoY shows that the inflation surge is not over. With a core PCE deflator of 4.9%, the Taylor Rule suggests that The Fed Funds Target Rate should be at 9.65%, far below its current level of 3.25%. So, IFF The Fed is following any sort of rule, rates should continue to soar.…
It's amazing that people think this economy is doing well when it's obvious that it isn't.
Fed’s Preferred Gauge Shows Inflation Accelerated Even More Than Expected in AugustSep 30, 2022 - 05:52:24 PDT
The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July.
More Bad News for House Buyers: Mortgage Rates March Toward 7%, Reaching Highest Since 2007: MWSep 30, 2022 - 05:48:08 PDT
The 30-year mortgage rate is averaging 6.7%, Freddie Mac said in its latest weekly survey on Thursday.
Market Instability Replaces Inflation As the Biggest Risk, Raising Chances of a Fed Pivot: MWSep 30, 2022 - 05:42:14 PDT
Overloaded debt in the financial system can spread like a virus.
Earlier this week in Germany and the Czech Republic, tens of thousands took to the streets to demand an end to Russia sanctions and the start of the NordStream II pipeline. Then someone blew it up. With better EU/Russia commercial ties no longer an option, how much stronger will protests become? Also today, Kamala Harris tries her hand at foreign policy at the Korea DMZ...with predictable result.