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Global institutions including the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization have both warned that countries around the world are sliding into a “global recession,” and experts say a combination of low growth and persistent inflation, known as stagflation, is a very real risk—especially for developing economies.
Germany on Thursday announced a €200 billion ($195bn) bailout plan to protect people and businesses from the fallout of Europe's energy crisis.
    Bank of England "Pivots"? Is The Fed Next?
Sep 30, 2022 - 11:18:38 PDT
Rising Interest Rates Are Painful, But The Alternative Would Ultimately Lead To Much Worse.
    El-Erian on Fed Pivot: 'Be Careful What You Wish For'
Sep 30, 2022 - 09:02:02 PDT
Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says liquidity risk needs more attention and expresses his concerns about central bank interventions...
The majority of chief financial officers at top companies believe inflation is set to get worse in the United States, with nearly 20 percent stating the country is already in a recession.
Economist Peter Navarro, erstwhile adviser to former President Donald Trump, told Epoch TV's "Crossroads" program in a recent interview that the current stagflationary downturn stalking the U.S. economy is "just the beginning" of America's economic woes and that Trump is the one who's best poised to pull the country out of a dire slump.
With persistent inflation weighing on consumers, even high earners are feeling financially strained.
    A World of Dangerous Debt Limbo
Sep 30, 2022 - 08:13:25 PDT
With many developing countries heading toward debt crises, the immediate priority for the international community is to avert more Sri Lanka-style meltdowns. That will require reforms to an outdated global debt-restructuring framework, as well as better use of existing institutions and policy instruments.
    Fed Put Getting Closer, Equity Market Says
Sep 30, 2022 - 08:09:55 PDT
The price of deeper out-of-the-money insurance in equities is falling, implying lower demand for crash insurance. This suggests the market believes the Fed put is getting closer.
Brent Neiman, a counselor to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, urged China to "take part in coordinated debt relief for vulnerable nations to avoid the specter of a systemic sovereign-debt crisis," Bloomberg reported on Wednesday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s push to de-dollarize the Russian economy is paving the way for the Chinese yuan to play a larger role in the country.
On September 27, I reported New Home Sales Jump an Astonishing 28 Percent in August. My comment then was "I highly doubt this number will survive revisions.” One of my reasons was that new home sales are counted at contract signing whereas existing home sales are counted at closing. Cancellations have been huge.
    UMich Inflation Expectations Tumbled In September
Sep 30, 2022 - 07:25:56 PDT
The headline from the UMich Sentiment survey continues to be inflation expectations which fell once again in September's final data to 4.7%.However, that is above expectations of 4.6% and above the flash print of 4.6% from early September.
...another recession red flag...
Today’s core PCE deflator reading of 4.9% YoY shows that the inflation surge is not over. With a core PCE deflator of 4.9%, the Taylor Rule suggests that The Fed Funds Target Rate should be at 9.65%, far below its current level of 3.25%. So, IFF The Fed is following any sort of rule, rates should continue to soar.…
It's amazing that people think this economy is doing well when it's obvious that it isn't.
The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 0.6% for the month after being flat in July.
The 30-year mortgage rate is averaging 6.7%, Freddie Mac said in its latest weekly survey on Thursday.
Overloaded debt in the financial system can spread like a virus.
    Protests Break Out In Europe: Cold Winter Coming
Sep 30, 2022 - 05:36:24 PDT
Earlier this week in Germany and the Czech Republic, tens of thousands took to the streets to demand an end to Russia sanctions and the start of the NordStream II pipeline. Then someone blew it up. With better EU/Russia commercial ties no longer an option, how much stronger will protests become? Also today, Kamala Harris tries her hand at foreign policy at the Korea DMZ...with predictable result.
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