Precious metals news

Citi analysts project a rebound in physical gold demand for the latter half of 2024, despite a slight softening in the second quarter. They maintain a bullish outlook with a $3,000 price target, expecting spot prices to average between $2,400-$2,600 per ounce in H2 2024. This optimism is fueled by anticipated record Chinese gold imports, stable official sector demand, and potential increases in central bank purchases. The analysts also predict improved gold ETF inflows as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle. These factors combined suggest a strong upward trajectory for gold prices, with Chinese retail imports potentially representing 47% of world gold mine output in 2024.

Recent surveys reveal a concerning trend in American financial health, with a significant majority of the population living paycheck to paycheck. A 2023 Payroll.org study found that 78% of Americans fall into this category, marking a 6% increase from the previous year. This means over three-quarters of Americans struggle to save or invest after covering monthly expenses. Corroborating these findings, a Forbes Advisor survey in the same year showed that 69% of respondents either live paycheck to paycheck (40%) or don't earn enough to cover their basic expenses (29%). These statistics underscore the growing financial strain on Americans across all generations as living costs continue to rise faster than wages.

A Bank of America study reveals that Gen Z adults in the U.S. are struggling financially due to inflation and rising living costs, with nearly half relying on parental support. The survey of 18-27 year-olds shows that 50% are not on track to buy a home within five years, 46% are unprepared for retirement savings, and 40% are not ready to start investing. To cope with increasing expenses, two-thirds of respondents are making lifestyle changes, including budgeting, reducing dining out, and opting for cheaper groceries. Bank of America's president of retail banking emphasizes the importance of budgeting for this generation facing economic challenges.

Global gold ETFs experienced a significant downturn in the first half of 2024, with a net outflow of $6.7 billion, marking the worst first-half performance since 2013. Total holdings decreased by 120 tonnes (-3.9%) to 3,105 tonnes. While Asian funds attracted a record $3 billion, they were overshadowed by $9.8 billion in outflows from North America and Europe. This trend is attributed to high interest rates and a risk-on sentiment driven by the AI boom in Western markets, which outweighed the typical positive correlation between gold prices and investment flows. Conversely, Asian investors were drawn to gold due to weaknesses in non-dollar currencies and gold's strong performance in those currencies.

Many Americans are accumulating debt to finance their summer activities, with a significant portion still paying off last year's summer expenses. This trend is particularly concerning given the current high credit card interest rates, which have risen substantially since the pandemic. Young generations, especially Gen Z and millennials, are more likely to take on debt for summer fun, with some expecting to accrue over $4,000 in debt. While 36% of respondents are willing to use various forms of credit for summer vacations, experts warn of a potential "summer debt hangover." This situation is exacerbated by the fact that credit card debt, though a small portion of overall household debt, carries higher interest rates, making it particularly expensive for consumers.

Japan's wholesale inflation accelerated in June, driven by a weakening yen that increased import costs, rising global commodity prices, and the phasing out of fuel subsidies. The corporate goods price index rose 2.9% year-on-year, reaching a record high for the seventh consecutive month. This data, along with a 9.5% increase in the yen-based import price index, suggests growing inflationary pressures that could influence the Bank of Japan's decision on interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting. Economists anticipate that these trends, particularly the yen's decline, may lead to further inflation acceleration towards autumn, potentially prompting the BOJ to consider rate hikes as it continues to normalize its monetary policy following the end of negative interest rates in March.

China's June economic data reveals persistent weak demand despite government efforts to boost consumption. Consumer inflation rose marginally by 0.2% year-on-year, falling short of expectations, while factory-gate prices continued their 21-month deflation streak, declining by 0.8%. These figures underscore the ongoing challenges in China's economic recovery, particularly in the property sector and domestic consumption. Despite initiatives to stimulate spending, consumers remain cautious, as evidenced by declining car sales. Economists suggest that more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies may be necessary to drive a meaningful recovery, with some speculating that potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts could provide room for China to implement its own monetary easing measures.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that U.S. regulators are nearing agreement on a revised plan for bank capital requirements, potentially easing the initially proposed 19% increase for big banks. This development suggests a significant shift in response to intense lobbying from major financial institutions, who argued the original plan could hinder lending. While specific changes weren't detailed, Powell indicated that the revised proposal would likely be subject to a 60-day public comment period. This move represents a potential victory for Wall Street banks and highlights the ongoing balance regulators are trying to strike between financial stability and economic growth.

The United States faces a growing $35 trillion national debt crisis that neither major presidential candidate is addressing honestly. Budget expert Brian Riedl, in an analysis for the Manhattan Institute, outlines potential solutions to stabilize federal borrowing and prevent a debt crisis. These solutions involve a combination of tax increases, spending cuts, and benefit reductions, which are politically unpopular but necessary. Riedl suggests that the U.S. doesn't need to eliminate its entire debt, but rather maintain it at around 100% of GDP. The analysis highlights that higher taxes on the wealthy will be inevitable, given the concentration of wealth among the top 1% of earners. However, politicians avoid discussing these tough choices due to their potential negative impact on voter support.

The 2024 presidential election is seeing a notable lack of financial support from America's top CEOs, with only two out of the 100 biggest companies' leaders making disclosed donations to either major party candidate. This trend continues a decline in CEO engagement in presidential politics that began with Donald Trump's entry into the political arena. While some business figures are backing Trump or Biden, the vast majority of top executives are keeping their distance financially. This marks a significant shift from previous elections, such as 2012, when CEO involvement was much higher. The total donations from these top executives to presidential candidates amount to only about $88,000, with most of that going to Trump's now-defunct primary rivals.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress signals a potential shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy. While acknowledging progress in combating inflation, Powell highlighted the cooling job market and the risks of maintaining high interest rates for too long. This balanced perspective suggests the Fed is moving closer to considering rate cuts, possibly as early as September. Powell's comments reflect a more nuanced view of economic risks, balancing the need to control inflation with concerns about potentially weakening economic activity and employment. The testimony comes amid mixed economic data, with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target but showing signs of easing.

In this episode, Peter recaps the latest batch of economic data, in which revisions to job numbers and a declining manufacturing sector bode poorly for the economy. He also analyzes gold and silver’s big week last week and offers some thoughts on President Biden’s recent post-debate interview on ABC.

Gold has experienced a remarkable rally in 2024, surging over 15% year-to-date and reaching record highs despite high interest rates and a strong US dollar. This bullish trend is expected to continue through the end of the year, driven by geopolitical tensions, safe-haven demand, and sustained central bank buying. The prospect of US interest rate cuts, particularly as early as September, further supports gold's outlook. While some central banks like China have paused their gold purchases, others such as Poland, Turkey, and India continue to add to their reserves. The World Gold Council's survey indicates that central bank demand for gold is likely to remain strong, with 29% of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months.

Incrementum AG's July 2024 Gold Compass report offers investors a comprehensive analysis of the gold market, featuring over 50 detailed charts and graphs. This extensive research delves into current trends, market dynamics, and economic factors influencing gold prices. The report is an invaluable resource for understanding the complexities of the gold market and making informed investment decisions. Access the full report to gain insights from one of the leading authorities in gold and silver research.

The U.S. economic landscape is at a critical juncture, with recent data potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The unemployment rate's unexpected rise to 4.1% in June has increased the odds of a September rate cut to 72%, up from 47% a month ago. This development brings the economy closer to triggering the Sahm Rule, a respected recession indicator. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares for his semiannual testimony, investors are keenly watching for signals about the Fed's stance on its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. The upcoming Consumer Price Index data and two more employment reports before September could be pivotal in determining the Fed's next move.

Major U.S. banks are expected to report lower second-quarter profits due to decreased interest income and increased provisions for potential loan losses. Analysts anticipate higher risks associated with commercial and industrial (C&I) loans and commercial real estate loans, reflecting a normalization of the credit cycle. The Federal Reserve's stress test indicates C&I loan loss rates could rise to 8.1% from 6.7% last year. However, the outlook isn't entirely gloomy, as Wall Street divisions may see improved performance due to a 20% increase in global merger and acquisition volumes and a 10% rise in equity capital market volumes in the first half of the year.

The gold market is currently experiencing choppy behavior, trading within a large consolidation area. Despite initial gains on Tuesday, the market showed signs of hesitation. Analysts expect continued fluctuations as the market seeks to find value, with potential for further short-term drops. However, long-term bullish factors remain, including central bank purchases, potential global interest rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical concerns. Technical analysis indicates support levels at the 50-day EMA near $2,320 and a major support at $2,300, with further support at the 200-day EMA around $2,200. Given these factors, the overall outlook for gold remains positive, although the market may continue to move sideways in the near term, particularly during the summer months.

Gold prices edged up slightly on Tuesday as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress and the upcoming U.S. June inflation data for insights into future interest rate decisions. The market is particularly sensitive to any unexpected dovish comments from Powell, which could push gold closer to $2,400 per ounce. However, persistent inflation could lead to a reversal of recent gains. Current market expectations, influenced by rising unemployment rates, suggest a high probability of a rate cut in September, with another expected by December. These factors continue to be the primary drivers of gold prices in the short term.

It's truly "Gluttonous" how much energy it takes to produce one Bitcoin compared to Gold and silver.  Worse yet, you don't even get to hold or store a physical Bitcoin like you can with gold and silver.  This is precisely why I favor investing in physical precious metals over Bitcoin...

In today’s video, Alan Hibbard dives deep into the accelerating expansion of BRICS and its significant implications for the US dollar