Precious metals news

The dollar remained steady on Monday as markets grappled with the potential implications of the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump on his 2024 election chances and subsequent market impacts. While initial reactions narrowed the odds of a Trump victory, traditionally seen as dollar-positive due to expectations of looser fiscal policy and increased trade tariffs, the currency's gains were short-lived. Investors are balancing this political development against the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, with markets now fully pricing in a September rate cut following recent inflation data. Cryptocurrencies saw significant gains, with Bitcoin and Ether both rising. The complex interplay between potential political shifts, monetary policy expectations, and global economic factors is creating a nuanced environment for currency and crypto markets.

Oil prices remained relatively stable on Monday as conflicting factors influenced the market. Concerns about demand in China, the world's largest oil importer, exerted downward pressure following slower economic growth and reduced crude imports. However, this was offset by strong demand elsewhere, OPEC+ supply restraints, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market also reacted to the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar. Despite these various influences, oil prices saw only minor changes, with Brent crude and WTI experiencing slight declines. Analysts note that while Chinese data is not supportive, demand growth in other regions remains healthy, and geopolitical factors continue to provide a premium for oil prices.

The recent CPI report showed that inflation is, according to official data, cooling down — so why are consumers more worried for the future than they’ve been in months? If prices are coming down, shouldn’t that fuel higher confidence and a greater collective sense of economic well-being? One simple answer is that the official data is cooked, using “updated” methodologies that make the picture look as positive as possible regardless of how much Americans are actually struggling.

After an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a rally, investors are turning to traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and gold. Bitcoin has also surged past $60,000. The attack is expected to increase market volatility and boost Trump's chances in the 2024 presidential election, especially given President Biden's poor performance in a recent debate. This could lead to a rise in "Trump trades," favoring assets like energy firms, private prisons, and credit card companies. Analysts predict an initial spike in the US dollar and bond yields, while tech and renewable energy stocks might suffer. Markets are on high alert for potential copycat attacks, and experts advise caution in reaction to immediate market movements.

We're about to face the aftermath of a Fed-induced housing crisis. U.S. pending home sales have dropped to historic lows not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, with a shocking 2.1% drop in May and a jaw-dropping 6.6% annual decline. With mortgage rates so high, banks and other investors are in massive trouble, facing severe cash shortages.

After the failed Trump attempted assassination yesterday, times are crazier than ever.  Unfortunately, the country will become even more divided as hatred begets more hatred.  This is a short video post on the current political crisis and metals update...

Across America’s cities, the inherent flaws in public transportation are becoming all too apparent. There are few urban residents who have no qualms with their public transit system. From aging infrastructure, budgets that struggle to cover costs, and a noticeable decline in ridership, there's a growing argument for the privatization of transit infrastructure. This move will make better use of taxpayer dollars and will help ensure the efficiency of urban transportation which our financial markets rely on.

While the primary catalyst for the original English pilgrims to venture to America was religious freedom, a strong desire for independence followed closely behind. They desired to be independent of two things: poverty and government meddling. This spirit carried into the American Revolution and informed domestic policy for many years. The Homestead Act of (FIND YEAR) was enacted to allow citizens a type of independence those who first fled Britain could only dream of. Remote settlers earned their own homes by proving their merit to Mother Nature. It was fairly easy to live as one wished without violating rules and regulations. The law was a fairly small framework that attempted to allow lives free from violence and evil. The two curses they fled were now powerfully refuted. The poverty caused by government oppression of the past was replaced by success or failure based upon individual action. 

Gold prices remained steady above $2,400 per ounce on Friday, poised for a third consecutive weekly gain. This stability comes as investors grow increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, following unexpected declines in U.S. consumer prices. Despite a hotter-than-expected producer price index report causing some profit-taking, the overall sentiment remains bullish. Markets are now pricing in a 96% chance of a rate cut in September, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. While gold and silver have shown strength, platinum and palladium are set for weekly declines, with long-term bearish outlooks due to declining autocatalyst demand.

U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped to an eight-month low in early July, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary reading. Despite expectations for easing inflation, consumers remain frustrated with persistently high prices, which are eroding living standards. The sentiment index fell to 66 from 68.2 in June, contrary to economists' predictions of a slight increase. While consumers' inflation expectations for the next year and the long term decreased slightly, nearly half of the respondents spontaneously expressed concerns about high prices impacting their quality of life. This decline in sentiment comes despite recent data showing cooling inflation, highlighting the ongoing impact of price pressures on consumer perceptions of the economy.

Following softer-than-expected inflation data, bond traders are increasingly betting on the possibility of a larger-than-usual 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This shift is evident in the federal funds futures market, particularly in October contracts, which have seen record trading volumes. While these contracts already fully price in a standard quarter-point cut for the September 18 meeting, the increased buying at higher price levels suggests growing expectations for a more aggressive move. Swap contracts now indicate a full quarter-point cut in September and a total of 60 basis points of easing by year-end, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment regarding the Fed's monetary policy trajectory.

In this eye-opening video, Mike Maloney explores the troubling signs pointing towards an impending financial crisis that could surpass the devastation

The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and World Gold Council (WGC) are advocating for gold to be reclassified as a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) under Basel III regulations. In a recent meeting with the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), they presented data and research supporting this change, which could enhance market stability, improve liquidity, and boost confidence in the financial system. The BIS representatives provided positive feedback and guidance on additional information needed to progress the reclassification. This move could significantly benefit financial institutions and the broader economy by strengthening gold's role in the global financial system.

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck expresses strong bullish sentiment towards both Bitcoin and gold, citing various market dynamics and global economic factors. Despite short-term pressures on Bitcoin, including government selling and liquidations, he maintains a positive long-term outlook, noting continued retail investor interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs. For gold, van Eck points to record highs driven by geopolitical tensions and increased central bank purchases. He highlights the declining appeal of traditional safe-haven currencies, making both gold and Bitcoin attractive alternatives. Looking ahead, van Eck anticipates potential fiscal challenges in 2025, particularly regarding U.S. Social Security, and expects continued Federal Reserve easing policies to support both assets.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly has indicated that recent cooler inflation readings are encouraging, and she anticipates further easing in both price pressures and the labor market to justify interest rate cuts. While Daly sees it as likely that policy adjustments will be warranted, she remains uncertain about the exact timing. She suggests that one or two interest rate cuts this year, as projected in the June Fed policymaker forecasts, could be appropriate if inflation continues to cool, though progress may be uneven. Daly's comments reflect a cautious optimism about the economic outlook and a willingness to consider rate cuts in response to improving economic conditions.

The June 2024 inflation report, showing a decrease to 3% year-over-year, has significantly increased market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. This data has led to a surge in rate cut bets, with the probability of a September cut rising to 91%. As a result, investors are flocking to interest-rate-sensitive assets, including Treasury bonds, low-yield currencies like the Japanese yen, and gold. The market reaction includes falling Treasury yields, a weakening U.S. dollar, and gold prices approaching all-time highs. This shift in sentiment suggests that investors are increasingly confident that the Fed's inflation target is within reach, potentially leading to multiple rate cuts by the end of the year.

Silver prices have surged over 2%, breaking through key resistance levels and confirming a 'double bottom' chart pattern. This bullish momentum, fueled by weaker-than-expected US inflation data, has pushed the XAG/USD to $31.40, a six-week high. The breakout above the $30.73 neckline has opened the door for further gains, with potential targets at $31.75, $32.00, and the year-to-date high of $32.51. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this upward trend. However, key support levels at $31.00, $30.73, and $29.82/79 remain crucial for potential pullbacks. This price action has reignited discussions about potential Federal Reserve monetary policy easing.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has declared that the U.S. labor market has achieved balance, marking a significant shift from the past three years when a tight job market was cited as a reason for maintaining high interest rates. This change in stance suggests that the Fed no longer views the labor market as a primary source of inflationary pressure. The cooling job market, evidenced by more concentrated hiring in specific sectors like healthcare and government, may now support the case for potential interest rate cuts in the near future. This development indicates that the Fed is reassessing its policy approach, considering both inflation risks and the potential negative impacts of prolonged high rates on the economy.

The yen steadied on Friday, a day after the Bank of Japan likely intervened to prop up the currency, on the coat-tails of an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer prices that fuelled the largest drop in the dollar since May. Daily operations data from the BOJ on Friday suggested the central bank had spent between 3.37-3.57 trillion yen ($21.18-22 billion) on buying the yen on Thursday, less than three months after its last foray into the market. Tokyo's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, said on Friday authorities will take action as needed in the foreign exchange market, but declined to comment on if authorities had intervened.

The potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, potentially making future international travel more expensive for Americans. This is because interest rates and currency strength are closely linked, with higher rates typically supporting a stronger dollar. As the Fed signals possible rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, experts anticipate downward pressure on the dollar's value. However, some financial analysts believe the dollar's strength may persist. The current strong dollar has made overseas travel more affordable for Americans, particularly in countries like Japan, where the exchange rate has been highly favorable. This situation could change if the dollar weakens, affecting the purchasing power of U.S. travelers abroad.