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    Velocity and Money Supply- Inflation's Dance Partners
May 24, 2023 - 07:15:32 PDT
Most people think the nation’s money supply is the sole cause of inflation. They fail to realize inflation has two equal dance partners. The money supply and the velocity of the money supply dance hand in hand to determine the rate of inflation.
A team of JPMorgan strategists led by Kolanovic trimmed its allocation to stocks and corporate bonds while boosting its stake in cash by 2%. Within the commodities portfolio, the firm also rotated out of energy and into gold on haven demand and as a debt-ceiling hedge — another move intended to strengthen the JPMorgan’s defensive posture.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk weighed in on the dangers of artificial intelligence (again) today, with a dire warning. Speaking at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Summit, Musk said, “There is a risk that advanced AI either eliminates or constrains humanity's growth.”
Congress is putting US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in a tough spot. The next accounting maneuver that Yellen can take, in early June, is one that will have no real long-term impact if the debt ceiling is raised. The Treasury can postpone investment in a pension fund for retired and disabled federal employees; once the debt ceiling crisis has passed, these investments can resume. It’s a way of buying time to buy more time. I
    Rent Inflation Re-Accelerates to Red-Hot
May 24, 2023 - 05:59:59 PDT
Debacle on the Inflation Front: The Fed’s victory lap about having licked rent inflation was premature.
US mortgage rates rose to a more than two-month high, reducing home purchase and refinance activity.
What could happen on Main Street if Washington's political showdown over the debt ceiling stopped the government from cutting checks that fund a quarter of the economy? Americans could quickly notice painful blows dealt to their retirement accounts as stock markets swooned, and within days the lack of federal payments could weigh heavily on doctors' offices, retirees...
"They may get to the last hour before there's an agreement. Or it's possible they don't reach an agreement. If that doesn't happen, then the market is going to crash." Nouriel Roubini, chairman and CEO at Roubini Macro Associates, discusses the US debt-ceiling impasse in an interview on the sidelines of the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha.
China’s benchmark stock index erased all its gains for the year as a weaker yuan and developers’ debt woes added to persistent worries over growth and geopolitics.
The warnings from credit watchers have been coming for months: A looming wave of corporate defaults is going to shatter the calm in equity markets. And still, US stocks have powered to highs last seen in August.
Even record dividends aren’t tempting investors enough to bet on stocks they see as more vulnerable in a recession.
The U.S. banking crisis, which has claimed a few victims since March, is the direct result of the Fed's fight against high Inflation. Uncertainty about the health of regional banks and rising yields in the money market led to a steady outflow of deposits, bringing banks' balance sheets to their knees.
The latest stalemate is in no small part because of an effort by the most conservative Republicans to preemptively kill any bipartisan deal.
    UK Inflation Unexpectedly Hits 30 Year High
May 24, 2023 - 05:27:57 PDT
Stagflation is taking hold in Britain as inflation printed much hotter than expected this morning with services and core CPI at their highest since 1992.
Minutes from the Fed’s May 2-3 meeting could offer clues as to just how seriously officials considered holding interest rates steady.
Stocks lurched downwards on Wednesday as U.S. debt ceiling negotiations dragged on without resolution, stoking a general malaise in markets that saw safe haven assets like the dollar and gold hold around recent highs. The New Zealand dollar meanwhile tumbled after the central bank caught markets off-guard by flagging that its tightening cycle is over. Europe's benchmark...
We are in the midst of yet another debt ceiling fight.
This is mostly political theater. That being the case, both Democrats and Republicans are using the drama in an effort to score political points and push policy in their preferred direction.
And since politicians are involved, they're telling a lot of lies.
The debt ceiling fight is getting down to the wire. In a letter to Congress on Monday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that without a debt ceiling increase, it was highly likely the government wouldn't be able to meet all of its obligations by "early June, and potentially as early as June 1."
Despite the drama, I still expect Congress to get a deal done. And that's when the real problems begin.
Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in April fell $167B. As the chart below shows, this is now the 9th consecutive monthly drop. This is also the second-largest drop of all time, behind only last month.
Citigroup projects silver could rise to $30 an ounce in the next six months to a year.
With silver currently in the $23.00 range, this represents a possible 30% return.