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Leading into the weekend, where the debt ceiling had not been settled, markets were exhibiting very interesting positioning. To start, US Treasuries across the maturity spectrum were hugely out of favor. Net speculator positioning in options and futures were as short as they have every been. The charts below show the 2-year, 5-year and 10-year...
US large-cap indices are currently diverging from recessionary leading economic data. However, a decisive steepening in the yield curve leaves growth stocks and therefore the overall index facing lower prices.
May 31, 2023 - 08:58:46 PDT
China says it's now signed $582.3 billion worth of global currency settlement agreements that will exclusively utilize the yuan.
This cluster of large bankruptcies happening in less than forty-eight hours is the most since 2008. Libby Cherry writes for Bloomberg (reprinted on Time): “Firms across every sector are struggling with higher interest costs—making it more challenging to refinance loans and bonds—while corporate executives are drawing more scrutiny from investors and creditors.”
May 31, 2023 - 08:52:08 PDT
Under Biden, the US economy is a land of confusion. Under Biden’s Reign of Error, Mortgage Purchase Demand is down -44%, Refi Demand is down -87%, and Mortgage Rates are UP 106%.
As demographics continue to shift in the 21st century, the world’s aging population will continue to be a focal point for many global decision makers.
The Great Student Loan Nonpayment Boondoggle Is Over And Household Spending Is About To CollapseMay 31, 2023 - 08:47:35 PDT
In the small print detailing the end of the debt ceiling melodrama which, as we explained, is a farce as it boosts inflation-adjusted spending contrary to Republican promises, there was some actual news: the great student loan boondoggle is about to come to a screeching halt, after a three year "emergency pause" which redirected tens of billions in dollars away from mandatory student loan repayment to other forms of discretionary spending.
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar Above Highest Estimate Even As Number Of Quits TumbleMay 31, 2023 - 07:42:31 PDT
For those following the recent sharp drop in job openings, or perhaps merely fascinated by the narrative that AI will cause a margin-busting corporate revolution as millions of mid-level employees are replaced by a cheap "bullshitting" AI algorithm, then today's latest bizarro JOLTS report will come as a shock. That's because after three months of sharp declines, the BLS reported that in April the number of job openings soared by 358K from an upward revised 9.7 million to 10.1 million, the biggest increase since Dec 2022...
The net result of these dynamics is official unemployment can soar but employers will still be scrambling to find qualified, willing employees.
Chicago PMI Unexpectedly Plummets, Longest 'Contraction' Streak Since LehmanMay 31, 2023 - 07:14:06 PDT
After the unexpected resurgence in April, Chicago PMI plunged in May from 48.6 to 40.4 (against expectations of 47.3). That is the ninth straight month below 50 (in contraction)...
Global Central Banks Now Expect Gold to Grow as a Reserve Asset While the US Dollar Turns DimmerMay 31, 2023 - 06:34:25 PDT
A clear majority of central banks around the world now see gold becoming a more prominent reserve asset, suggesting the de-dollarization trend will continue in the coming years.
Federal obligations will be "paid" with ever more rapidly devaluing dollars. The nation is on a one-way road to ongoing currency debasement.
The Republicans have capitulated on the US debt ceiling. This averts the risk of abrupt fiscal tightening in a slowing economy that has yet to digest the most aggressive monetary squeeze in over 40 years....
May 31, 2023 - 06:26:25 PDT
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers sees US interest rates headed higher in the short-run and US taxes rising significantly in the longer run as the world’s biggest economy comes to grips with a persistent inflation problem and burgeoning government debt.
Risks Lie Ahead for US Credit Standing After Tentative Debt Ceiling DealMay 31, 2023 - 06:16:03 PDT
News of a debt ceiling agreement still leaves uncertainties on the U.S. credit outlook, analysts said, in addition to the immediate risk that Congress may not pass the proposed deal before the country runs out of cash.
After a 31% surge in the US technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index this year, market strategists are at odds about whether investor positioning is getting crowded and if that could put the rally under pressure.
Short Seller Jim Chanos Rolls His Eyes at AI Hype Over Market ValuationsMay 31, 2023 - 06:11:11 PDT
"Wall Street is quite good at creating supply to meet demand," the famed short seller said in a dig at the ChatGPT-fueled mania around AI stocks.
Just 5 Stocks Including Nvidia Account For 96% Of the S&P 500’s Gains This YearMay 31, 2023 - 06:06:47 PDT
Most likely, their valuations are already stretched beyond the max, and bound to snap back. And the ultimate example of the froth that's overtaken the Trillion-Dollar Club is the rise of Nvidia.
Higher interest rates are “testing the resilience” of eurozone households and companies and raising the risk of “disorder” across markets, the European Central Bank has warned.
Former Bank of England policymaker Michael Saunders said the UK economy is headed for a more painful period after the quickest succession of interest rate rises in four decades takes hold.