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Mortgage Rates Re-Spike to 7% Range as it Sinks in that the Fed Won’t Cut Rates “Anytime Soon”Jun 1, 2023 - 06:04:29 PDT
Spring selling season was a dud. But what comes next may be worse, that’s what mortgage applications and investors tell us.
Worsening conditions in the US mortgage-backed securities market are doing little to ease fears over financial contagion as a recession looms.
Elon Musk On a Meltdown in Home Prices and Commercial Real Estate This Week: A Property DisasterJun 1, 2023 - 05:52:27 PDT
Elon Musk sounded the alarm on US house prices and commercial-property values this week. The billionaire's warning reflects his fear that the Federal Reserve is strangling the economy and threatening to cause a needless recession.
"Commercial real estate is melting down fast," the Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter CEO tweeted on Monday. "Home values next."
Continuing claims remain below the 1.8mm Maginot Line (1.795mm). With the farce in MA now over, there are no major outliers in state level data with North Carolina and Arkansas seeing the biggest drops in claims while Ohio and New York saw the biggest jumps...
Job growth is strong while pay growth continues to slow. But gains in private employment were fragmented last month, with leisure and hospitality, natural resources, and construction taking the lead. Manufacturing and finance lost jobs.
So much for Biden’s “miracle economy.” Challenger jobs cuts report is out for May and job cuts soared 286.7% year-over-year (YoY). As M2 Money growth crashes.
Large U.S. companies have been on a bond issuance binge but this rapid pace in supply may be hard to sustain ahead of expected volatility related to extending the U.S. debt ceiling and another possible move higher in interest rates.
The U.S. Senate on Thursday was set to take up a bill to lift the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, with just four days left to pass the measure and send it to Democratic President Joe Biden to sign, averting a catastrophic default.
Underlying inflation in the euro zone dipped by more than expected, though European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said there’s “no clear evidence” that it’s peaked and pledged to lift interest rates further.
(Bloomberg) -- A rare European Central Bank warning about the bond market risk of a Bank of Japan policy change comes at a time when Japanese outflows from the region are already at record levels.
Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker suggested Wednesday that the central bank could pause rate hikes at its next policy meeting. Jefferson, President Biden's nominee to be vice chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, noted that such a decision wouldn't necessarily mean the Fed was done hiking rates.
Global shares rose on Thursday as traders pared back expectations of a U.S. rate hike this month and were relieved by the passage through the U.S. House of Representatives of a bill to suspend the federal debt ceiling. A divided House passed a bill to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling - and avert a catastrophic default - with majority support from both Democrats and Republicans, stoking optimism that it can move through the Senate before the weekend.
“The task of the BRICS is to unite, not to divide. Therefore, when the BRICS countries decided to create the NDB, we pursued one simple goal: to create a financial institution for developing countries, so that we all have an additional tool to support our joint development agenda,” Siluanov said.
President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy are each loudly proclaiming victory in the deal they finally struck this weekend to raise the debt ceiling. MARCUS: Let's be honest: this 11th-hour compromise was as inevitable as it is depressing, with no real winner, and just one big loser - the American people.
He sees a mild economic slowdown – more-so than a severe recession – due to his belief that central banks will pivot quickly if economic activity slows sharply. For that reason, he sees inflation remaining above 2% for a longer time as growth slows but doesn’t fully dip into recession, i.e. stagflation.
More, more, more. According to the New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, total household debt climbed to $17.05 trillion in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of $2.9 trillion since Q4 2019, shortly before the pandemic hit.
Most market participants are viewing a debt ceiling deal as bullish. While there may very well be a positive initial reaction, we expect a significant tightening of liquidity conditions in the coming months.
Let us hope that at least we Americans soon recover from our infatuation with government power.
Still an Astonishing Labor Market: Very Tight or Getting Even Tighter in Some Sectors...May 31, 2023 - 12:28:08 PDT
Powell is going to mention this with some frustration in his voice.
The Fed's latest beige book released this afternoon was a boring affair, one signaling the US economy remained sluggish at best, and describing economic activity as "little changed overall in April and early May." Four Fed districts reported small increases in activity, six no change, and two slight to moderate declines. Expectations for future growth deteriorated a little...