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Initial claims bottomed at 182,000 on September 24, 2022. Ignoring the pandemic years and recovery, initial claims are the highest since 264,000 on September 23, 2017.
The German multinational bank's top research team believes Washington has sparked a boom-bust cycle that now is nearing its end stage. In its house view, the recession slated to arrive as soon as October is the inevitable consequence of a series of aggressive rate hikes designed to extinguish the very flames of inflation that policymakers ignited through their own actions during the COVID pandemic. “Avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented,”...
The trends in retail sales, Fed regional surveys and claims are recessionary, adding to the case that after a pause the next move from the Fed will be a cut, rather than another hike. Monthly or weekly data are fine if you want some trading volatility, but not helpful when trying to discern the path of the economy.
Fed, SEC Probing Goldman Sachs’ Role in Silicon Valley Bank’s Final Days: WSJJun 16, 2023 - 06:12:10 PDT
The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission are investigating Goldman Sachs Group's role in two deals with Silicon Valley Bank that preceded the latter's collapse, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday citing people familiar with the matter.
Regional Banks Scramble To Unload Commercial Real Estate Loans, Fearing New CrisisJun 16, 2023 - 06:09:28 PDT
The work-from-home trend has been taking its toll on office landlords and is now making its way through to banks’ commercial loan portfolios, leading some analysts to predict that more trauma could be on the way for regional banks this year.
Regional and small banks should fall under more monitoring to prevent future crises undermining financial stability, Ray McGuire, president of Lazard Ltd., said at a Bloomberg New Voices event in Washington.
"Monetary policy must continue to tighten to bring inflation to target in a timely manner," the IMF said in the report, which it presented to euro zone finance ministers and the ECB.
The Bloomberg dollar index reversed earlier gains, while gold prices rose. Oil prices remained flat, and iron ore edged lower. The market's reaction to the $4.2 trillion triple-witching opex, including a significant amount of expiring options, will determine if the rally extends for a seventh day. Adobe shares rose after beating expectations, and Apple approached a record $3 trillion market capitalization.
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said it’s too soon to sound the “all-clear” on inflation even as the German central bank lowered its outlook for inflation through 2025.
The relentless rally in equities faces a fresh threat over the next few weeks with the world’s biggest money managers set to unload as much as $150 billion of stocks.
If you looked at red-hot stock markets without following central banks, you could well assume interest rates are being cut. The U.S. Federal Reserve this week paused its most aggressive interest rate rise cycle in decades, but laced the decision with a warning of more hikes to come.
Investor fears of mounting economic damage are threatening to overshadow the next round of interest-rate hiking all but promised by central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt.
Several major banks have cut their 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for China after May data showed a post-COVID recovery was faltering in the world's second-largest economy.
China's National Statistics Bureau warned Thursday of "mounting pressure ... in domestic structural adjustment" in the world's second-largest economy. A slew of economic data from industrial production and fixed asset investment to retail sales and trade fell short of expectations, with China teetering on the brink of deflation as its post-pandemic economic recovery stalls.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda continued to defy global central bank trends by sticking with stimulus as he waits for signs of more sustainable inflation while his peers signal the need to raise interest rates further to rein in prices.
The European Central Bank will have to keep raising interest rates even after September if core inflation doesn’t slow down sustainably by then, according to Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch.
Global Markets Touch 14-Month Highs as Investor Concern Over Rate Hikes EasesJun 16, 2023 - 05:17:26 PDT
Global shares rose to 14-month highs on Friday as investors took the view that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise rates much more, while the dollar headed for its biggest weekly slide since January.
Mainstream Perception vs. Economic Reality: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast June 16June 16, 2023
There is the mainstream and market perception of what going on in the economy and financial system. And then there's the underlying economic reality. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the growing divergence between the two in the context of the June Federal Reserve meeting and the latest CPI data.
Jun 15, 2023 - 13:06:34 PDT
Gold price is expected to hit $2100 by end of 2023 with central banks continuing to boost gold reserves as dollar sanctions trigger a shift in long-term strategies on currency reserves amid “a colossal volume of $250 trillion unfunded liabilities” in the US, mounting geopolitical risks and inflation.
Gold Could Well Rally on Any Data Showing Inflation Pressures Are Easing: TDSJun 15, 2023 - 13:04:31 PDT
Given the world is looking like the Fed will not actually pull the trigger two more times, as suggested by the ‘meaningless’ median dots, our outlook for the yellow metal is positive.