Precious metals news

Fitch Ratings warns that the U.S. banking industry is nearing the risk of major rating downgrades, potentially affecting top banks like JPMorgan Chase. A further downgrade of the industry's score could force Fitch to reassess the ratings of over 70 U.S. banks. This action could decrease the ratings of the country's leading banks, possibly driving some weaker institutions toward non-investment-grade status. This move follows recent actions by credit rating firms that have disturbed the markets. The potential consequences of widespread downgrades could squeeze banks' profit margins and impact their ability to access debt markets.

Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, moving away from traditional holdings like currencies and bonds. This trend is driven by gold's stability as a hedge against economic instability and the move towards de-dollarization, as countries seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar. The surge in gold acquisition by central banks aims to strengthen economic resilience and increase their global negotiation leverage. This could impact gold's market dynamics, currency values, and global economic stability. Experts are watching this shift, highlighting the importance of preparedness in today's uncertain economic environment.

Goldman Sachs forecasts a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second quarter of 2024, likely by 0.25 percentage points, as the bank seeks to control inflation while addressing concerns over the US economy's stability. Despite the present high interest rate, the highest in over 20 years, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's main concern remains inflation, which was 3.2% in July, above the targeted 2%. Powell has stated that while inflation is decreasing, the future remains uncertain. Investors are concerned that continuous rate hikes might lead to a recession.

Michael Burry, known for anticipating the 2008 crisis, has been rapidly adjusting his portfolio. Three months ago, he offloaded several 2022 holdings and invested in Chinese stocks, energy firms, and distressed banks. However, recent filings reveal he's sold many of these assets, including stakes in JD.com and Alibaba. He's now invested in companies like Expedia and Charter Communications. Significantly, Burry has acquired puts on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, suggesting he's hedging against a market downturn.

U.S. tax receipts are declining, historically a sign of upcoming economic recessions. With rising Washington spending, the focus has shifted from infrastructure to social welfare and debt service. In 2022, the Federal Government funded $1 Trillion of its $6 Trillion expenditure through debt. Current economic indicators, especially dropping tax receipts, point towards a potential recession. This rise in debt and decrease in tax revenue threatens future economic growth and could negatively impact the stock market.

The U.S. has witnessed a significant surge in homelessness, with preliminary data indicating an 11% rise from 2022, marking the largest increase since 2007, according to a Wall Street Journal review. This analysis included data from over 300 entities responsible for counting homeless individuals across various regions. The increase is attributed to mounting pressures such as escalating housing costs, limited affordable rental options, and the ongoing opioid crisis. As pandemic-era support measures, like eviction moratoriums, conclude, housing expenses have become an even more prominent factor.

Interest rates are going up. While some might shrug it off, it's wreaking havoc in the commercial real estate world.

The Federal Reserve's harsh monetary stance seems more detrimental than beneficial. While certain statistics like the Consumer Price Index might indicate reduced inflation, the true picture suggests potential economic disruptions. With interest rates soaring way above the natural rate, the Fed's excessive constriction is evident. The central bank's recent inflation data might be within target, but past high rates taint this achievement. Alarmingly, the predominant influence of the shelter component in the CPI highlights pressing concerns, likely sidelining broader economic health. The Fed's current trajectory threatens its already dwindling credibility. Facing these tactics, the economy's future stability is genuinely uncertain.

The Western Roman Empire's collapse in 476 AD wasn't due to a single cause, but a combination of factors termed a "polycrisis." Key issues included external pressures from migrating tribes, notably the Huns, which pushed other groups into Roman territories. Economically, challenges like the depletion of silver mines in Spain strained Rome's resources. Societal problems also arose, with the overproduction of elites leading to internal conflicts, while escalating wealth inequality undermined social cohesion. Additionally, missteps in integrating Barbarian tribes, once assets to Rome's military, further destabilized the empire. All these internal and external challenges highlight the vulnerability of even the most dominant empires when multiple crises converge.

While recent U.S. inflation data appears positive, history urges caution. The 1970s saw inflation attempts lead to recessions, and post-war booms often followed downturns. Despite current optimism tied to Biden's investments, China's economic decline is worrying. Rising U.S. interest rates and mounting corporate debts hint at potential financial strain. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, especially with China and the Ukraine conflict, may impact the global economy. Relying solely on positive short-term indicators without considering historical patterns and global pressures could be misguided.

In a concerning move, Fitch downgraded America's credit rating, emphasizing the country's growing financial vulnerability due to prolonged Washington dysfunction. The Fed's attempts to combat inflation might be setting the stage for a major fiscal crisis. Historical investment patterns, which favored stocks and bonds over short-term government securities, are now in question. Ray Dalio, a prominent hedge fund figure, now advocates for cash over stocks or bonds. U.S. debt is set to exceed the country's GDP, and even minor deviations in financial projections could lead to trillions in additional federal debt. With constraints on America's financial flexibility, its global standing and economic stability are at risk.

To hear President Joe Biden tell it, the US economy is booming. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is running monthly budget deficits that you would normally see during a deep recession.
With two months left to go, the deficit for fiscal 2023 now stands at $1.61 trillion, after the federal government charted another massive shortfall in July.
And Biden wants to spend even more.

The recent CPI report showed a decline in rent inflation, contradicting previous predictions of a surge based on real-time indicators like Apartment List and Zillow. While year-over-year data indicates decreasing rent prices, actual monthly expenditures are rising. RedFin's data suggests that US rents are nearing record highs again. Despite some economic indicators suggesting a potential drop in rent, the resilient housing market, combined with potential Fed actions, might push rents higher. The focus should be on current rent trends rather than outdated annual data.

Consumers have been recklessly spending and accumulating debt, especially by borrowing heavily for home purchases. Despite the hype, foreclosures in Q2 have surged to 38,840. While this might seem lower than pre-pandemic levels, the rapid 340% increase since early 2021 is alarming. Foreclosure bans during the pandemic artificially suppressed numbers, masking potential issues. The real threat looms for homeowners if home values plummet. Current homeowners, especially recent buyers who minimized down payments, are vulnerable. Furthermore, delinquencies in mortgages and HELOCs are ticking up, hinting at a brewing crisis. Albeit from historical lows, the rise in third-party collections and consumer bankruptcies is concerning.

US Treasury yields and mortgage rates rose recently, despite a tame CPI report. On August 11, 2023, mortgage rates surged to 7.19%, nearing the high of 7.37% from October 2022, the highest in nearly 23 years. The chart patterns suggest potential for further hikes. Current yield inversions are among the steepest in history. Despite the CPI dropping to 3.2% year-over-year, signs indicate another inflation uptick and continued Fed hikes. The housing market is expected to suffer, especially with consistent shelter price increases. The recent rise in Producer Price Index and spikes in crude petroleum further fuel inflation concerns. The Fed's oversight of not including home prices in its inflation model has exacerbated housing market challenges.

CBDCs, introduced under Biden's questionable leadership, pose a dire threat to personal privacy. The government and Federal Reserve could potentially surveil every individual transaction, signaling a dangerous Orwellian shift. As the U.S. Dollar's value diminishes, efforts to undermine cryptocurrency alternatives hint at a larger agenda to trap citizens in a monitored financial ecosystem. Public trust in the government and Federal Reserve has plummeted, yet they continue to overreach.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July came out last week. Even though the headline number ticked up slightly compared to June, most mainstream analysts took it as a sign that the Federal Reserve made more progress in its inflation fight. In fact, most mainstream pundits seem convinced that the Fed is on the verge of winning that fight and pushing CPI back to its 2% target. In his podcast, Peter said they are wrong.

Europe stored a record amount of natural gas yesterday, pushing its total inventories well above the same period during the 2020 Pandemic shutdown.  And, if current trends continue, Europe may reach 100% Capacity a month sooner than usual.  This is undoubtedly very Bearish for the Natgas price...

With global oil production likely to decline after 2025, this is only part of the problem.  Why?  It doesn't consider the "Double Whammy" of falling Net Oil Exports.  As Oil Exporting countries continue to grow, they will consume even more Oil and export less...

Gold prices are anticipated to hit record highs in 2024 due to waning interest rates and looming recession fears. While the U.S. Federal Reserve has been hiking rates, experts like Bart Melek of TD Securities predict gold could surpass $2,100 by early 2024. David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners is even more bullish, seeing it reach $2,500 by the end of 2024. This upward trend is further supported by strong gold demand from China and India. Notably, BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are considering a shift away from the U.S. dollar in favor of a gold-backed currency.