Precious metals news

US Treasury bonds are experiencing their longest losing streak in history, dating back to 1787, according to Bank of America. The 10-year Treasury's third consecutive annual decline is underway, with losses of 3.9% in 2021, a staggering 17% in 2022 – its worst performance since 1788 – and a 0.3% dip this year. "10-year Treasury on course for third consecutive loss... never occurred in 250-year history of US republic. Reflects staggering 40% jump in US nominal GDP (growth + inflation) since 2020 COVID lows," said BofA's Michael Hartnett. The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes are behind the bond market's pain. With 11 rate hikes since March 2022, the fed funds rate surged from nearly 0% to over 5%, causing bond prices to fall.

The US dollar is losing ground due to signs of easing growth in the labor markets, reducing the likelihood of a Fed interest rate increase. Although August payrolls grew more than expected at 187,000, the rise in unemployment to 3.8% and a slowdown in wage growth counterbalanced the expansion. As a result, the WSJ Dollar Index and DXY both drop by 0.3%, causing the dollar to weaken by 0.6% against the yen and 0.2% against the pound and euro.

In the last few days, gold and silver have paused their earlier rises. In the case of silver, these have been substantial, as shown in our headline chart. In gold, less so; but it does appear that silver is leading both metals higher. In European trade this morning, gold was $1944, up $39 on the week, and silver $24.60, up 40 cents. Silver is up 10% from its mid-August low, leading gold which is up only 3%.

Consumer spending is in jeopardy as excess pandemic savings dwindle and credit card debt mounts. The strain is compounded by high borrowing costs and tightened lending standards. "Credit card borrowing costs are the highest since records began in 1972 so there is going to be a lot of pain out there," ING's James Knightley said. He predicts a decline in early 2024, highlighting the exhaustion of savings, student loan payments restarting in October, and limited credit card capacity. The US has seen total credit card debt reach a record high of over $1 trillion.

US manufacturing woes persist as the ISM Manufacturing index for July falls to 47.9 (down from June's 49.0). The Manufacturing PMI also rises only slightly to 47.6, remaining below 50 for four months. Chris Williamson from S&P Global warns of declining orders, weak pricing power, and fading business confidence. The report hints at potential stagflation, with rising prices but dampened demand. Hope rests on future policy initiatives, but immediate outlook remains uncertain.

The Three Strikes Law imposes harsh sentences on individuals for multiple felonies, but major banks like JPMorgan Chase receive leniency. Despite facing felony counts, JPMorgan's penalties remain mild. For instance, it was fined just $4 million for deleting 47 million emails under subpoena. The bank's alleged involvement in sex trafficking with Epstein and rigging the Treasury market resulted in deferred-prosecution agreements. This unequal treatment highlights a troubling disparity in the justice system.

The growing US national debt, now exceeding $30 trillion, raises concerns about when a tipping point might be reached and what the consequences could be. The government funds its activities through taxation (T), debt financing (D), and money printing (M). Rising debt and deficits point to potential trouble ahead. While raising taxes seems like a solution, there's a limit to how much revenue it can generate before discouraging work. Debt financing also has limits, as high interest rates deter lenders. Ultimately, excessive debt leads to inflationary monetary policy, which can devastate the economy.

The US labor market disappoints once again as August's payrolls report reveals a grim reality. Despite a nominal beat with 187K jobs added, the trend of downward revisions continues, indicating potential data manipulation. The unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.8%, and wage growth remains lackluster, rising by only 0.2% month-on-month and 4.3% annually. The labor market's instability persists, painting a bleak outlook.

China's central bank slashes foreign currency deposit requirements, a desperate move to combat a floundering economy. Feeble attempts at stimulus for the property sector and tax breaks prove feeble in the face of a deepening housing crisis and dwindling global demand. Economic woes continue to mount, with rising unemployment adding to the gloom. Skepticism abounds, as experts question whether these measures can truly reverse the downward spiral. Despite some uptick in economic data, China's currency remains in a downward spiral, sliding towards its weakest level in over a decade.

We're kicking off Labor Day weekend. That means you're going to hear a lot of rhetoric about how the government needs to do more for workers. But as Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey explains, we don't really need better government policies for workers. We need better money for everybody. He also talks about tanking consumer confidence in this bubble economy.

I was simply "Stunned" to find out that the top Gold Miners' total cost of production is now over $1,700.  It's no wonder the gold mining stocks have underperformed even with much higher gold prices.  Unfortunately, I believe costs will only increase in the future...

Gold market steady around $1,950/ounce, poised to reignite bullish trend. George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors anticipates increased activity as India's festivals and weddings boost consumer demand. Chinese stimulus could further boost Asian demand. Milling-Stanley sees potential for gold to reach $2,000/ounce by year-end, fueled by rebounding jewelry and consumer demand. Not concerned about 10-year bond yields or Fed rate hikes, he suggests rates could work against the dollar and move the economy closer to recession. Ongoing market risks and anxiety favor gold's strength, and Milling-Stanley believes the market is well positioned for a rally in the coming months.

The global currency plot aims to create a single world fiat currency controlled by a world central bank and privileged elites. Central banks like the Federal Reserve play a key role in this agenda. The US dollar's dominance propels the push for a single global currency, possibly led by a basket of national fiat currencies or a gold-backed unit. However, market-based money, including gold and cryptocurrencies, is advocated as a better alternative for sound money, offering voluntary cooperation and economic freedom. The alternative, if not pursued, is to face the prospects of tyrannical government money and the unsettling possibility of a tyrannical fiat world currency.

Community banks are grappling with a deposit crisis driven by technology and changing demographics. Customer loyalty has eroded, and money now moves swiftly due to lack of trust and the pursuit of higher interest rates. Over half of US banks are trading below book value, signifying widespread distrust in their financial stability. This unsettling trend may lead to further bank failures and consolidations, painting a bleak picture for the banking system's future.

The US is facing a grave debt problem with its gross national debt nearing $33 trillion, equivalent to 122% of its GDP. The speed at which the debt is accumulating is alarming, resulting in soaring interest payments. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that interest costs could reach around $71 trillion over the next 30 years, consuming 35% of federal revenues by 2053. The CBO projects interest costs to become the largest "program" in the coming decades, a bleak scenario exacerbated by potential higher inflation and interest rate hikes.

Tucker Carlson predicts that the US proxy war against Russia could escalate to an open conflict within a year due to political motivations. He suggests that Democrats seek the war to retain power, and some Republicans support this trajectory. Carlson believes a hot war with Russia is likely, with potential triggers like fabricated incidents. He asserts that the US could prevent conflict by cutting funding to Ukraine, but warns that a war with Russia could have catastrophic consequences, affecting global stability and the US economy. He emphasizes the impact on the American empire and the potential loss of the US dollar's value.

The world may be on the brink of World War III, with escalating conflicts involving major powers such as the U.S., China, and Russia. Ukraine's war against Russia is intensifying, while economic sanctions are damaging the West. France's need for uranium from Niger could lead to military intervention, possibly involving Russia. Other hot zones like Taiwan, the South China Sea, Syria, and Pakistan are also concerning. The current state of global conflicts, combined with the potential for escalation, bears resemblance to the lead-up to World Wars I and II, raising fears of a potential global conflagration with nuclear war looming. The genii may already be out of the bottle.

Argentina battles triple-digit inflation, possibly reaching 200% by year-end, evoking memories of past economic crises. Rising prices, exacerbated by a 20% peso devaluation, harm consumers, increase poverty, and fuel voter anger before October elections. Efforts like interest rate hikes and price freezes struggle to contain inflation. High inflation, predicted by J.P. Morgan to hit 190%, propels outsider candidate Javier Milei, who leads August's primary. He vows to dollarize the economy and blames the political elite for the crisis.

Despite slight relief in inflation, 61% of adults are still living paycheck to paycheck as of July, an increase from last year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern over persistent high inflation and hinted at more interest rate hikes. Central bank officials have already raised rates 11 times, impacting consumers' spending habits. Lower-income workers, hit hardest by rising prices, are struggling to make ends meet. Around 70% of Americans are stressed about finances due to inflation, rising interest rates, and lack of savings. Only 45% have an emergency fund, with 26% having less than $5,000 saved.

US jobless claims fell to 228k, near 6-month lows (from 232k). New York had the largest rise, Ohio remained low due to fraud removal. Continuing claims rose to 1.725mm. Challenger, Gray reported a 217% MoM increase in job cuts in August, with warehousing hit hardest. Job openings are falling, workers reluctant to change jobs post-pandemic. ADP, JOLTS, and Challenger-Gray indicators are weak, but initial claims are strong.