Precious metals news

Under Biden's administration, Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate has skyrocketed to a staggering 7.31% - a peak not witnessed since December 2000, marking a 69% surge. Despite the Fed holding a colossal $2.5 TRILLION in agency MBS on its balance sheet, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen sharply to 4.67%.

Moody’s warns of escalating systemic risks in the US financial system due to a "race to the bottom" between banks and private credit funds backing high-risk leveraged buyouts. With worsening economic conditions, there's a surge in banks and private debt sectors financing subpar deals. As private equity picks up pace and hunts bigger deals, banks attempt to reclaim their dominant position in the buyout business. However, this aggressive competition could degrade pricing, terms, and credit quality, magnifying systemic risks, especially in an already fragile economy facing rising interest rates.

Amidst a fragile economy, Japan's government bonds experienced their most severe quarterly selloff in over two decades, plunging 3% in Q3. This downturn underscores the market's heavy dependence on the central bank's actions. With rising speculation of the Bank of Japan terminating its negative-rate policy, Japan's looming debt crisis becomes increasingly worrisome.

The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, Core PCE Deflator, dropped to 3.9% YoY in August. Goods prices surged, while services inflation remained high. Adjusted for inflation, real personal spending rose, but Real Disposable Income declined 0.2% MoM for the third consecutive month. Wage growth slowed across the board. The savings rate fell sharply to a one-year low of 3.9%, underscoring persistent inflation concerns and dwindling savings.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield has surged since Ackman's early August remarks, experiencing its steepest quarterly rise since 1987. With anticipated enduring inflation and the U.S. government's growing budget deficit, Ackman warns of inadequate returns from bonds. He foresees the 10-year Treasury yield potentially exceeding 5% soon due to these deficits and adverse market dynamics. The rising bond yields have adversely impacted stocks, with the S&P 500 heading towards its fourth weekly decline.

US money market funds saw a $6.3BN inflow this week, nearing record highs after a previous outflow. Retail funds increased by $7.8BN, but institutional funds declined by $1.5BN. The Fed's balance sheet shrank by $22BN, its smallest since June 2021. The emergency funding facility use remains at a high of $108BN. Concerns grow as banks might face a $108BN deficit soon, possibly leading to prolonged use of the "emergency" facility in an election year.

The economy is great! Inflation is dead! We're on our way to a soft landing! We keep hearing messages like this over and over again from Fed officials, the Biden administration, academics, and financial news pundits. But doesn't the spin seem a little detached from reality? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey exposes the political class's gaslighting operation. He also talks about the big selloff in gold this week.

Amid the cost-of-living crisis, the Royal Mint reported a surge in gold and silver investments as alternatives to disappointing traditional savings and stock returns. First-time precious metal investors increased by 17% in the first half of 2023, with gold investments up by 10% and silver by 16%. Andrew Dickey, the Royal Mint's director of precious metals, noted that individuals are diversifying portfolios and seeking "safe haven" assets like gold, which has seen its price rise by nearly 65% in the last five years.

In the event of a US recession, Treasury 10-year yields might approach a robust 3%, and the S&P 500 might stabilize around 3,000. This adjustment aligns with the anticipated movement of copper towards a solid $3 a pound. The rise in precious metals compared to industrial metals is consistent with a slowdown in global growth, positioning gold and other precious metals favorably. Bloomberg Economics anticipates this trend to become more evident by year-end.

A noted financial analyst argues that despite the historical advantages of capitalism, the average living standard is now declining because of heightened government interventions, including taxation, regulations, and inflation. He refers to the present economic scenario as the "Silent Depression" and anticipates it will escalate into a "Greater Depression," surpassing the severity of the 1930s. Emphasizing the shrinking middle class and the perils of uniform media perspectives, he suggests delving into economics and stockpiling essential commodities as pragmatic measures against inflation. He cautions about the deepening repercussions of this under-recognized economic slump.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns of a potential U.S. debt crisis, especially as U.S. debt surpassed $33 trillion. The rise in debt, accelerated by a 50% increase in federal spending from 2019-2021, has heightened concerns of a slowing economy and rising interest rates. Dalio predicts economic growth could plummet to near zero. This comes amidst fears of a government shutdown if a spending bill isn't finalized by October 1.

The financial news media, previously optimistic, are now blatantly pessimistic. Past assurances about inflation control and a "soft landing" for the economy have been replaced by stark warnings. Stock markets are faltering, fears of a recession loom, and the U.S. economy shows signs of strain. Today's narrative starkly contrasts past predictions, casting doubt on the media's credibility.

JPMorgan strategist, Marko Kolanovic, warns of looming downturns as the S&P 500 nears his 4,200 target, drawing parallels to the 2008 crisis. He cites challenges like overvalued markets, tech stock gains concentration, and tighter financial conditions, including rising interest rates. With increasing delinquencies in credit and loans, Kolanovic urges caution, noting that current market chatter mirrors pre-2007 crisis.

The tale of the Roman Denarius offers not just a glimpse into the past but also a warning for the future...

The S&P 500 Equal Weight index has plummeted, erasing gains and revealing a bleak broader market concealed by the performance of tech giants like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple in the standard S&P 500. Dominance of these few stocks heightens market vulnerabilities. As the Federal Reserve scales back with a record QT nearing $1 trillion and prolonged higher rates, the markets are strained. QE once boosted markets, but QT is now eroding them.

Pending home sales in August plummeted 7.1% MoM, drastically worse than the forecasted 1% drop, marking the sharpest decline since September 2022. This downturn mirrors the record lows during the COVID lockdown. Every region faced setbacks, with some regions hitting their weakest since 2001. Experts warn of a bleak outlook with rising mortgage rates, raising concerns about the housing market's prolonged instability.

With the Asian hegemons undoubtedly able to introduce gold standards, where does that leave the dollar?
This article describes just how precarious the fiat dollar’s position has become. For now, the dollar appears to be buoyed up by rising bond yields. However, as they rise further portfolio losses for foreign investors are likely to increase, leading to dollar liquidation. It is not generally realised how many dollars and dollar securities are owned by foreigners, the bulk of them being held outside the US banking system. And the quantity of foreign currency owned by Americans to absorb this selling is very small in comparison.
Higher interest rates and bond yields also threaten to destabilise the banking system, a problem equally faced by the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan. But how can the US Government protect itself from this danger?
The only answer is to admit to the end of the fiat era and put the dollar back onto a gold standard. However, the US Government does not h...

The U.S. economic outlook darkens as the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases revised Q2 GDP data. Personal consumption, a pivotal component of GDP, was a significant letdown. Initially expected at 1.7%, it came in at just 0.8%, a dramatic drop from Q1's 3.8%. This marked the worst consumer performance since the COVID-ridden Q2 of 2020. Despite headline GDP figures meeting expectations, the underlying data indicates severe consumer weakness. Factors like the resumption of student loan payments, potential federal government shutdowns, and reduced auto production only magnify concerns for impending economic decline.

Find out how the average taxpayer owes a staggering quarter-million dollars in taxes!

Amid persistent high inflation and interest rates, 60% of U.S. adults live paycheck to paycheck. With the consumer price index up 3.7% from last year, stagnant wages strain households. The Federal Reserve's 11 rate hikes haven't stemmed inflation, severely impacting lower-income individuals. Essential costs continue to rise, and 70% of Americans report financial stress, with less than half having an emergency fund.