Precious metals news

Rising business bankruptcies are sounding alarm bells, especially as they increasingly involve large companies such as SVB Financial, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Yellow. Factors like inflation, supply-chain issues, diminishing government aid, and rising interest rates are cited as key challenges. The trend of big corporations filing for bankruptcy is concerning because it can destabilize financial markets, lead to massive layoffs, and potentially signify an impending economic downturn, as witnessed with Lehman Brothers in 2008.

The 10Y yield spike might lead US banks to incur approximately $140 billion in unrealized debt losses, given their duration exposure of $5.4 trillion at the end of Q2. This would push total cumulative losses to an alarming $700 billion, possibly prompting the Fed to extend its bailout facility. Additionally, the broader fixed income investor community faces significant risk from the rising yields. With these assets often serving as "ultra-safe" collateral in the global repo market, the situation could ignite massive margin calls, threatening financial stability.

The global economy faces a significant threat: the potential onset of a third wave of inflation. As tensions rise in the Middle East, there's a growing concern that energy prices could spike, which would hinder central banks' current efforts to manage inflation. The geopolitical environment has grown notably unstable over recent years, and this makes the outcomes of the current crisis harder to predict. Markets might not be fully prepared for the broad implications of such developments.

American consumers continued to pile up debt on credit cards while borrowing for big-ticket items fell into the basement in August.
This is the behavior of extremely financially stressed people.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the non-farm payroll report for September on Friday. Once again, the headline numbers didn't reflect reality.
Peter Schiff talked about it in his podcast. He said all of the people like President Biden probably shouldn't be bragging about creating jobs people wish they didn't have to have.

Is the gold and silver price sell-off over?  In this update, I share the charts and fundamentals taking place in the precious metals as well as the oil and natgas market.  While many believe the oil price is heading much lower, I think the opposite is the case...

Coin Price Forecast Center: Forecasting accuracy is a key metric for our customers. We are constantly improving it with the continual introduction of newer data science and machine learning techniques. According to the latest long-term forecast, Silver price will hit $25 by the end of 2023 and then $30 by the end of 2024. Silver will rise to $40 within the year of 2025, $50 in 2026, $60 in 2027, $70 in 2029, $75 in 2030, $80 in 2032, $90 in 2033 and $100 in 2034. Thats without a Financial Crises.

Nikko Asset Management finds gold more appealing after its recent price drop, especially amidst the rising interest rates that increase market unpredictability. Robert Samson, with $1.5 billion under management, has allocated 6%-8% of a Japanese portfolio to gold, benefiting from yen's decline. Despite gold's lowered allure due to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the strengthening US dollar, Samson believes gold is now at fair value and offers protection in the current economic environment. He sees gold as a safe asset, especially when interest rates peak and subsequently adjust to potential risks.

Stefan Huth of Junge Welt claims a new global order is emerging, driven by shifts in international politics and economics. The Global South, especially Africa, is reshaping its international role after centuries of colonization. African nations are seeking new partners and trade terms, with Russia and China at the forefront of this change. Huth believes the EU is caught between benefiting from this shift while still clinging to the traditional Western-centric order, resulting in a contradictory stance.

Global economic growth is stalling due to various short-term and long-term challenges, including geopolitical conflicts, high public debt, and aging populations. The Brookings-Financial Times TIGER index reveals a broad weakening in economic activity. Despite earlier positive financial market indicators, global confidence is declining. Developed economies face stagnation or potential recession. Conversely, emerging markets like China and India exhibit more resilience and growth.

Census Bureau data shows median household income has plummeted to $74,580, marking the third consecutive year of decline. Despite this, economist Paul Krugman touts a thriving economy, contradicting the 71% who perceive economic hardships. Rising costs consistently outpace nominal wage growth, with real wages falling 4% since Biden's inauguration. Krugman's inconsistent views on inflation highlight his detachment from the struggles of average Americans. This economic downturn isn't mere chance but a consequence of deliberate policy decisions.

One-third of individuals earning over $150,000 annually report they can't clear their credit card debt this year. The surge in debt among high-income households is attributed to central banking policies and proponents of monetary expansion.

Over 34 million Americans, including nine million children, are grappling with food insecurity. A recent US Census Bureau survey indicated that in a 12-day study period, over 26 million people couldn't afford sufficient food, marking a nearly 50% rise from 2021, partly due to the cessation of pandemic-era aid. A parallel Feeding America report detailed the pandemic's enduring impact on hunger. It highlighted that 80% of those facing hunger attribute it to inflation and soaring food prices, with 93% fearing worsening conditions. Primary causes included high housing costs, unemployment, health issues, and prevalent low-wage jobs.

U.S. businesses faced significant challenges in 2023, with commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies rising by 61% to 4,553. Small business filings increased by 41% to 1,419. Overall, commercial sector bankruptcy filings grew by 17% to 18,680. Consumer filings also saw a 17% hike, reaching 313,458, despite previous declines due to pandemic-era financial aid.

The sell-off in precious metals continued as bond yields continued to rise and a strong dollar persisted. In early trade in Europe this morning, gold was $1822, down another $26, unchanged on the year. Silver traded at $21, down $1.17. Comex volumes in both metals declined from good levels, indicating that selling pressure is declining.
Comex deliveries in both metals increased in volume, reflecting the end of the October contract. Including last Friday, 8,735 gold contracts stood for delivery in the last five business days, representing 27.17 tonnes, and 334 silver contracts representing 52 tonnes. This persistent demand for delivery is becoming a must-have source for those turning paper gold and silver into bullion, with 338.25 tonnes of gold and 3,514 tonnes of silver delivered this year so far.
Driving gold and silver lower have been persistently rising bond yields taking markets by surprise. The chart below of the US Treasury 10 year note yield is remarkably bullish — u...

Despite warnings, pundits like Matt Yglesias in the mid-2010s encouraged excessive government borrowing due to low-interest rates. Under subsequent administrations, this led to the U.S. national debt surging past $33 trillion. Today, as U.S. Treasury bond yields skyrocket, the reckoning is apparent: skyrocketing debt rollovers strain the federal budget, and the economy teeters. Ignored cautionary advice now jeopardizes our financial stability; the past's fiscal irresponsibility is catching up.

Signs of an impending financial downturn are emerging, highlighted by the behavior of the yield curve. While some experts remain unconvinced of a looming recession, rising Treasury yields and falling bond prices suggest economic instability. Recent data shows a decline in job creation and market volatility. The shift towards higher interest rates could trigger financial and economic crises, particularly impacting the housing sector. The era of low interest rates and monetary stimulus appears to be ending

The euro is facing its twelfth consecutive week of decline against the strengthening dollar. This is the longest streak since the euro's introduction in 1999. The dollar's surge is backed by a sell-off in U.S. government bonds and strong economic data, among other factors.

Despite the bond yields negatively impacting the stock market, Bill Gross believes it's insufficient. He suggests the market is overvalued and warns that stocks might underperform in an impending economic downturn. Gross is skeptical about the Fed's capacity to manage inflation, which remains above the target.

The fixed-income market is facing what Bank of America Global Research labels the "greatest bond bear market of all time." Yields on 30-year Treasuries have surged above 5% for the first time since 2007, alarming investors. Despite these unsettling trends, Bank of America strategists remain bearish on risk assets, anticipating a hard landing due to rising, prolonged interest rates, suggesting the bear market's end is not in sight.