Precious metals news

The story of America's job growth is more complex and nuanced than the government wants us to believe. In a world where job numbers wield significant influence over perceptions of economic health, it's crucial to scrutinize the data—and the methods behind their presentation—closely.
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff delves into the murky waters of government economic reporting.

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, expressed skepticism towards the optimism of a "Goldilocks" economy—a scenario where conditions are just right for growth without triggering inflation. Speaking on CNBC's "Closing Bell," Gundlach voiced his concerns that such a perfect balance is unrealistic, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks, which Gundlach interprets as dampening the hopes for this ideal economic state. Gundlach remains steadfast in his prediction of a looming recession, countering the more optimistic view that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes over the past year haven't severely impacted economic expansion.

Gold demand reached an all-time high last year and is poised for further growth in 2024, fueled by anticipation of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, as reported by the World Gold Council (WGC). In 2023, overall gold consumption surged by approximately 3% to 4,899 tons, marking the highest level recorded since 2010. This increase was driven by robust demand in the less transparent over-the-counter market and continued strong purchasing by central banks. The WGC's annual report highlights the significant role of gold in the current economic climate, suggesting a bullish outlook for the metal's future.

Iran has positioned itself at the forefront of a significant move within the BRICS economic alliance, advocating for the creation of a BRICS digital currency in 2024 as a strategic step towards reducing global reliance on the US dollar. Throughout 2023, the BRICS nations have collectively focused on de-dollarization, alongside efforts to develop a native trading currency. These endeavors are expected to culminate in the launch of a new digital asset this year, marking a pivotal shift in international trade dynamics and currency utilization within the alliance.

Take a look at the analysts' individual forecasts and commentary, revealing their insights behind their forecasts for highs, lows, and average prices for gold, silver, platinum and palladium.

In Sprott Money's upcoming Monthly Wrap-Up video, Craig Hemke and Andrew Maguire will provide a comprehensive analysis of the economic outlook for February, focusing on three critical areas that could influence the trajectory of precious metal prices. They will discuss the impact of geopolitical events, such as political unrest, conflicts, and trade tensions, on investor behavior and the increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

Mortgage rates in the United States have seen a modest decrease, offering a glimmer of hope to the housing market. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dipped to 6.63%, down from 6.69% the previous week. This slight reduction marks a return to a downward trend in borrowing costs, although significant relief for prospective homebuyers might still be some distance away. The Federal Reserve has maintained a steady approach to interest rates since July, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that while there is openness to rate cuts within the year, more economic data is needed before such actions can be undertaken.

Treasury yields saw a significant drop on Thursday, driven by a continued downturn in U.S. financial stocks, which fueled trader speculation of an accelerated timeline for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The five-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by up to 9 basis points, reaching its lowest point since June at 3.75%. This movement reflects a growing anticipation among traders for a more substantial total reduction in Fed interest rates throughout the year, with swap contracts even hinting at the possibility of rate cuts commencing as early as March. This shift in expectations comes despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks suggesting such moves were unlikely in the near term.

The price of US West Texas Intermediate crude oil experienced a significant drop, falling more than 2% to dip below $75 a barrel. This decline came amid emerging reports of a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, potentially easing recent geopolitical tensions. Bloomberg has indicated that negotiations aimed at halting the conflict and securing the release of civilian hostages held by Hamas are making progress, though these talks are still in the preliminary stages without immediate expectations for a resolution. Concurrently, Al Jazeera reported Qatar's announcement that Israel has consented to a ceasefire proposal, introducing a hopeful outlook for an end to the hostilities. These developments have influenced oil markets, as traders react to the potential for decreased geopolitical risk in the region.

New York Community Bancorp experienced a significant drop in stock value, marking a record plunge as market concerns grew over the bank's exposure to commercial real estate risks. This downturn comes despite the bank previously benefiting from the struggles of other regional lenders. The decline was triggered by investor apprehension that the bank could signal upcoming challenges within the commercial real estate sector. In response to these lending risks, which include problematic loans associated with a co-op complex and office space, New York Community Bancorp has increased its cash reserves and faces heightened regulatory scrutiny due to its size. The bank also reported a substantial rise in its provision for loan losses, totaling $552 million, which took analysts and investors by surprise, indicating a cautious approach to potential future defaults.

Genesis Global Holdco LLC has reached a settlement with U.S. regulators to conclude a lawsuit alleging violations of securities laws via its discontinued Gemini Earn program. As part of the settlement, Genesis, a branch of Barry Silbert's Digital Currency Group, will pay a $21 million fine to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, this payment is contingent upon the company's ability to fully reimburse its customers and other creditors under its Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings. The deal, pending approval from a bankruptcy judge, addresses the SEC's claims that Genesis unlawfully solicited funds from investors through the Gemini Earn program, in collaboration with Gemini Trust Co.

There's been a noticeable uptick in Americans seeking jobless benefits, with applications hitting the highest level in nearly three months. Last week, filings for unemployment benefits jumped to 224,000, marking an increase of 9,000 from the week prior. Despite this rise, the broader context shows that layoffs are still significantly low by historical standards. The less fluctuating four-week average of claims also saw a rise, moving up by 5,250 to reach 207,750. This indicates a slight shift in the job market dynamics, though the overall health of the employment sector remains robust.

Gold prices have been on a tear, with bullion prices ripping upward since the outbreak of war in the Middle East late last year. While mining stocks have gone up as well, physical gold has been leaving them in the dust:

The U.S. commercial real estate sector, already shaken by the pandemic's onset, faces renewed distress as New York Community Bancorp and Aozora Bank report significant financial setbacks. This turbulence sent New York Community Bancorp's shares tumbling and raised alarms across global banking sectors, from New York to Tokyo. The industry struggles with depreciating property values, challenges in loan repayment, and a bleak outlook from investors, signaling potentially widespread defaults and financial strain on lenders.

In January, U.S. job cuts surged to the highest level in 10 months, with a 136% increase from December. This spike was primarily seen in the financial and technology sectors due to restructuring efforts. Despite this monthly jump, the year-on-year figures show a 20% decrease in job cuts from January 2023. The financial industry, in particular, experienced a significant rise in layoffs, announcing 23,238 job cuts, more than double compared to the same period last year.

Join Mike Maloney in an insightful conversation with Russ Gray about the current state of the financial system.

Pakistan is preparing to launch a new series of currency notes, incorporating advanced security features to tackle counterfeiting issues. The State Bank of Pakistan's Governor, Jameel Ahmed, announced that the updated currency will feature distinctive security identifiers and modern designs. This initiative is intended to enhance the credibility and reliability of Pakistan's monetary system, and foster confidence among businesses and citizens. The introduction of these new notes will be gradual, progressively replacing the existing ones in circulation.

Global commodity markets are experiencing a "super squeeze," as noted by HSBC's chief economist Paul Bloxham. This situation, characterized by higher prices due to supply constraints rather than a surge in demand, is poised to intensify due to geopolitical and climate risks. This super squeeze is driven by factors such as political uncertainties, climate change impacts, and insufficient investment in green energy transition.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated on Wednesday that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is unlikely by their March meeting. Powell expressed the committee's need for more confidence in the inflation trajectory before considering a rate reduction. This statement followed the Fed's January meeting, where they kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. However, Powell did mention the possibility of rate cuts later in the year. Following his comments, stock markets reacted negatively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 300 points, as traders' hopes for an early rate cut, potentially pre-empting a recession, were diminished.

New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), known for rescuing assets of the faltering Signature Bank in 2023, is now facing its own challenges. This week, NYCB's stock took a dramatic 46% dive, following an unforeseen net loss report. If this leads to more issues in banking industry, many could look to assets like gold as a safe haven.