Precious metals news

Economists are sounding alarms that the Federal Reserve might be on the brink of repeating past mistakes, this time by delaying interest rate cuts, potentially ushering in a recession. After admitting to being tardy in raising rates amidst the inflation surge of 2021 and 2022, the Fed now faces criticism for possibly acting too sluggishly as inflation begins to subside. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, warns of the increasing danger the longer the Fed hesitates to lower rates. With inflation gradually approaching the Fed's 2% target and economic risks mounting, Zandi advocates for a reduction in rates as early as March or, at the very latest, May.

The commercial real estate sector is facing a crisis, made worse by the pandemic's effect on office occupancy. Triggered partly by the 2008 Great Recession's low-interest rates, which fueled investments in real estate, the sector is now under strain as loans become problematic due to vacant buildings. This situation not only affects landlords and banks but could have broader economic implications.

The gold price has been surging, with unprecedented central bank demand gobbling up supply. It has been a force to behold — especially as US monetary policy has been relatively tight since 2022, and 10-year Treasury yields have rocketed up, which generally puts firm downward pressure on gold against USD. 

ESG, or “Environment, Social, and Governance,” is the new feel-good buzzword in the halls of global corporations and megabanks. It’s a PR push to cloak morally disastrous firms in a veneer of social and environmental responsibility — lip service — but at the end of the day, I believe the market will speak. 

In President Javier Milei's first full month in office, Argentina saw a monthly slowdown in consumer price inflation to 20.6%, slightly below the anticipated 21%. Annually, inflation surged to 254.2%, marking the highest rate since the early 1990s post-hyperinflation period. Milei's economic measures, including a 54% devaluation of the peso and lifting price freezes, contributed to this trend. Despite these efforts, challenges remain, with expected continued annual price increases due to subsidy cuts and tax hikes.

The consumer price index continued to draw relatively weak response rates in 2023, calling into question the accuracy of the widely watched US inflation data.The share of completed surveys that were used in the CPI estimation stood at 71% in 2023, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. While that’s been ticking up in recent years, it’s still well below the pre-pandemic trend of near 80%.

Mortgage rates have risen above 7%, reaching a two-month peak and sustaining this level for over a week, indicating a potential shift in home affordability trends. This escalation reflects the highest rates since late November, with the average for a 30-year fixed loan now at 7.16%. The increase is making it even more difficult for many American's already struggling to afford housing.

Most people think prices just always go up. But that depends on how you measure the price. One asset shows that that’s not always the case.

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more details on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

Central banks globally have been on a notable gold-buying spree, significantly ramping up their acquisitions of the precious metal. This trend raises the question: why is gold so appealing to these monetary powerhouses, and does its allure extend to American investors? In the latest episode of U.S. Money Reserve's exclusive video series, "In Conversation," a panel including former U.S. Mint Directors delves into the reasons behind central banks' unprecedented interest in physical gold.

Analysts at UBS say silver is posed to "dramatically" outperform gold this year...

Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% increase in gold prices over the next 12 months, driven by robust central bank acquisitions and vigorous retail demand in emerging economies. This anticipated rise would elevate gold to $2,175 a troy ounce, according to Nicholas Snowdon and Lavinia Forcellese from the bank's Commodities Research team. While the near-term outlook suggests gold prices may fluctuate due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions, the appeal of gold, a non-yielding asset, diminishes as interest rates climb.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, a predictor of future economic conditions, has decreased by 0.4% to a score of 102.7 in January, reaching its lowest point since the initial COVID-19 lockdowns in April 2020. Despite this being the 23rd consecutive month of decline, the rate of decrease has notably slowed, and the majority of the index's ten components are now indicating positive signs. Now, for the first time since summer 2022, the Conference Board says the United States is not on the verge of a recession. This shift in outlook, amidst a long period of downward trends, suggests a potentially more stable economic future than previously anticipated.

Gold prices saw a modest increase on Thursday, influenced by a combination of a dipping dollar and rising tensions in the Middle East. This uptick comes as investors are on the lookout for upcoming U.S. economic data, which is expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. The spot gold price rose by 0.1% to $2,026.7 per ounce early in the morning, reaching its highest level since February 9. Similarly, U.S. gold futures also experienced a slight rise of 0.1%, marking a price of $2,036.9 per ounce.

In rare form today, TFMetals decided to throw Newmont under the bus on "X" or Twitter.  This was likely due to Newmont's dismal Q4 2023 results, reporting a $3.1 billion net income loss for the period.  Turd used several expletives to describe the performance of the world's largest gold mining company...

Amid the financial community's growing optimism about interest rate cuts and economic recovery, PIMCO, the U.S. bond behemoth, throws in a word of caution, suggesting that both equity and fixed income markets might be underestimating the looming threats. Despite expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower rates within the year, PIMCO warns that the pace of these changes might not be as swift as markets hope. Dan Ivascyn, PIMCO’s group chief investment officer, highlights a strategic shift from lower-rated credit to higher-quality, securitized assets over the past year, aiming for resilience and value in uncertain economic waters. This move underscores a broader concern: the risk of an economic downturn or inflation re-accelerating remains a significant threat, contrary to the market's current pricing.

The global foreign exchange market, with an estimated value of $752.7 billion in 2023, is on a trajectory to reach $1023.91 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 6.5%. This expansion is attributed to the dynamic roles of reporting dealers who ensure liquidity by continually offering buy and sell prices for foreign currencies, thus significantly influencing daily forex market capacities. This article analyzes the 15 weakest currencies in the world in 2024.

President Joe Biden's administration has made another significant move by cancelling $1.2 billion in federal student loans, benefiting over 150,000 borrowers. This action is part of the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan, introduced in January, aimed at providing relief to Americans who have been repaying their student loans for at least ten years. Specifically targeting individuals who borrowed under $12,000 for their education, this initiative marks a step towards alleviating the financial burden of higher education. This latest cancellation brings the total student loan relief under the Biden administration to nearly $138 billion, affecting nearly 3.9 million borrowers. With 6.9 million people enrolled in the SAVE program, the number of beneficiaries is expected to rise, although the exact figure remains undetermined.

In their latest meeting, Federal Reserve officials struck a cautious tone on the prospect of lowering interest rates, emphasizing a balanced approach towards inflation control. Despite acknowledging a significant reduction in inflation from its peak in mid-2022, the highest in over four decades, officials underscored the necessity of more evidence before considering policy easing. The minutes revealed a consensus that, although the period of rate hikes might have concluded, any reduction in the federal funds rate would be premature without solid assurance that inflation is on a steady decline towards the Fed's 2% goal.

South Africa's inflation rate edged up for the first time in three months this January, primarily driven by escalating fuel and food costs, marking a modest uptick to 5.3% year-over-year from December's 5.1%. This increase, though slight, has inflation continuing to exceed the central bank's preferred midpoint target of 4.5% for nearly three years, suggesting that the current key interest rate of 8.25%—a peak not seen in almost 15 years—may remain unchanged for some time. Central Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago emphasizes the ongoing challenge of curbing inflation, indicating that rate cuts are off the table until inflation not only approaches but also consistently meets the 4.5% goal.