Precious metals news

Despite a period of dovish signals, the Federal Reserve is expected to revert to a hawkish stance due to rising inflation figures. This shift, anticipated by economists, comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell previously indicated at a 2022 Jackson Hole meeting that tough measures might be necessary to manage inflation. Experts like Ellen Meade and Marc Giannoni suggest that recent easing in financial conditions will likely prompt a more stringent approach to monetary policy.

Beneath the sweet surface of our favorite treats lies a bitter reality: inflation has sent cocoa prices soaring to unprecedented heights. Once deemed the food of the gods and now a daily indulgence for millions, chocolate is facing a dramatic upheaval as wholesale cocoa prices have rocketed past $11,000 per ton. Our guest commentator explains why this startling surge is a result of meddling from the Fed, leaving chocolate lovers and manufacturers in a squeeze.
(For our favorite gold chocolate bar, see our Gold Valcambi Combibar)

The Comex report last month showed a lot of strength in gold which directly preceded a massive up move for the price of gold. The data is looking similar in silver this month!

The close movement between gold and the dollar, typically seen as defensive assets, is currently signaling a potential deep correction in the S&P 500. Historically, when these two assets converge in behavior, it often precedes significant downturns in the stock market, suggesting that investors should brace for possible declines.

Whenever an election year rolls around, domestic manufacturing becomes a more central theme of discussion. Candidates from both sides, who seem to disagree on almost everything else, never waver in their commitment to auto manufacturers in Detroit and the steel industry. Republicans and Democrats never forget to remind the American public that they will try to keep these specific jobs on American soil. These very tangible and traditional markers of American industry seem to hold an outsize role in the American mind, especially considering that the steel industry, one of the most frequently mentioned industries, only employs 143,000 citizens.

U.S. inflation edged up in March, meeting expectations and reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve will likely hold off on interest rate cuts until September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% last month, the same as in February, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. This steady increase, in line with market forecasts, suggests that the central bank will maintain its current rate policy for the time being.

The wizards at the Fed and US Treasury have been forced to acknowledge that their “transitory,” inflation is, in fact, quite “sticky.” And with the inflation elephant now acknowledged by the circus of high finance, Treasury yields keep inching up, recently reaching 4.7% — the highest since November. The Fed is stuck: It needs to raise interest rates to tame inflation and make Treasuries more attractive. But the Fed can’t afford higher rates, with an already-untenable cost to service the existing debt and loan-dependent industries teetering on the brink.

Not all gold is created equal. Here's what you need to know about gold and silver jewelry.

Traders are increasingly betting on the U.S. Federal Reserve initiating its first interest rate cut of the year in September, following a recent government inflation report. This report, which indicated that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% from February to March, has influenced interest rate futures prices. These now suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut during the Fed's mid-September meeting, a noticeable increase from the previous likelihood of less than 60%.

Inflation persisted in March, as revealed by the Federal Reserve's closely monitored personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated 2.7%, according to the Commerce Department. Including these volatile categories, the overall PCE index also exceeded expectations, climbing 2.7% compared to a forecasted 2.6%. Despite these figures indicating sustained inflationary pressure, market response was muted, with Treasury yields dipping slightly and Wall Street poised for a positive open.

Gold is on track for a weekly loss as U.S. inflation worries dampen demand, despite a modest increase ahead of critical inflation data due this Friday. The anticipated personal consumption expenditures index is expected to confirm that March continued to see high price pressures. Heightened inflation has raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to lower borrowing costs, which has boosted Treasury yields—a negative for gold, which yields no interest. Compounding concerns, a recent report showing U.S. GDP growth falling short of expectations has reignited fears of stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation.

JD and Joel unpack Peter's latest podcast and the economy's current path toward stagflation. We look at this week's price action, macroeconomic data, and a quote from Jordan Peterson.

The U.S. economy experienced its slowest growth in nearly two years last quarter, accompanied by a notable increase in inflation, which dampened hopes for a soft landing. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.6%, falling below all economists' forecasts. The primary driver of economic growth, personal spending, increased at a modest 2.5% rate, which was less than expected. Additionally, a widening trade deficit contributed to the slowdown, marking the largest subtraction from growth since 2022. Inflation also showed signs of acceleration, with a key indicator rising at a 3.7% annualized rate. This was the first quarterly increase in a year, indicating that price pressures are resurfacing.

Discover the latest trends in residential and commercial real estate that could reshape the entire banking sector!

Gold's remarkable rise this year had analysts scratching their heads until a new force was identified: Chinese retail investors swarming the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). Despite headwinds like increasing Treasury yields and a robust dollar, trading volumes on the SHFE tripled, propelling gold prices upward. China's long-standing connection to gold, coupled with recent market uncertainty, has contributed to this surge, indicating a major shift in gold trading patterns. However, as gold prices fluctuate, questions persist about the SHFE's broader impact on the global gold market.

Zimbabwe's new gold-backed currency, the ZiG, experienced its first decline since its introduction this April, slipping nearly 1% to trade at 13.38 against the dollar on Thursday. This weakening aligns with recent drops in gold prices, which have seen a downturn over the past three days. The ZiG, an acronym for Zimbabwe Gold, is supported by a mix of precious metals, including approximately 2.5 tons of gold, and $100 million in foreign currency reserves maintained by the central bank. The currency debuted at 13.56 per dollar, replacing the significantly devalued Zimbabwean dollar, which had plummeted about 80% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year. During a business conference in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s Vice President Constantino Chiwenga emphasized the ZiG's role in transitioning away from the US dollar, which is used in roughly 80% of transactions. The government plans to phase out the US dollar as legal tender by 2030.

In a month marked by remarkable surges in both Bitcoin and gold prices, speculation is growing about the sustainability of high interest rates in heavily indebted Western economies. These assets, usually favored by distinctly different investor groups, have seen simultaneous rallies, driven by soaring inflation and market volatility. Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at XTB, points out the significance of these parallel trends: "When gold and Bitcoin rise together, it prompts a deeper analysis of investor behavior. Both are capitalizing on the current market sentiment, as evidenced by record highs in major U.S., Japanese, and European stock indices." This alignment raises questions about the broader economic implications, including the feasibility of returning to a gold standard in a world moving away from dollar dominance.

The U.S. economy started the year on a weaker note than anticipated, with the GDP growth rate decelerating to 1.6% in the first quarter, as reported by the Commerce Department. This figure significantly undershot the 2.4% growth economists had projected based on surveys by Dow Jones. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which gauges the total output of goods and services, showed a marked slowdown from the 3.4% increase in the final quarter of 2023 and the 4.9% rise in the quarter before that. While consumer spending did grow by 2.5%, it was less robust compared to the 3.3% increase in the previous quarter and also fell short of the 3% expected by Wall Street analysts.

As 2024 unfolds, the anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates has waned. Initially, the consensus was that a rate cut was imminent; however, four months into the year, the Fed's updated stance suggests no rush to lower rates, supported by a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and persistent inflation. This cautious approach by the Fed is not just a concern for analysts and investors. Central bankers globally, particularly in Southeast Asia, are scrutinizing the Fed's moves closely. Their decisions on whether to adjust interest rates hinge significantly on the Fed's actions to avoid adverse impacts on their own currencies.

Gold prices experienced a notable increase on Thursday, primarily driven by a declining U.S. dollar. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, which could provide significant insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. As of midday in London, spot gold climbed 0.6% to reach $2,328.61 per ounce. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures saw a modest rise of 0.1%, settling at $2,341.00 per ounce.