Precious metals news

The inverted yield curve, historically a harbinger of recessions, is losing its clout as a predictive tool, suggest the insights from a recent Reuters poll of market strategists. Traditionally, a negative spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has been viewed as a strong indicator of impending economic downturns, with a near-perfect track record since 1955, failing only once. However, despite an inversion lasting over 20 months and a current discrepancy of 46 basis points, the conversation among experts has shifted towards a lesser likelihood of a recession or even potential economic growth.

The latest inflation data reveals a mixed bag for American consumers, who have been grappling with rising costs for nearly two years. According to the Labor Department's February update, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—which tracks the prices of a wide array of everyday items such as groceries, gasoline, and rent—rose by 0.4% from January and was 3.2% higher than the same time last year. Although this marks a slight deceleration from December's 3.4% inflation rate, it still exceeds the Federal Reserve's ideal target of 2%.

Gold's recent rally has left some analysts puzzled, as the precious metal soared 7% in just over a week to achieve new record highs, surpassing the $2,195 per troy ounce mark. This surge has defied traditional market explanations, especially since it occurred amidst expectations of US interest rate cuts, which typically enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Analysts like Nicky Shiels of MKS Pamp, describe the rally as "the quietest, most confusing" with the jump from $2,000 to over $2,150 being particularly baffling...

Economists at Commerzbank project that gold prices are expected to stay robust, influenced by consistent buying from the People's Bank of China (PBoC), which has been increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months. In February alone, the PBoC added approximately 390 thousand ounces of gold, equivalent to 12 tons, to its reserves.

On Sunday, Peter recapped a stellar week for gold. He also provided an analysis of President Biden’s State of the Union Address and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s perspective on the economy. 

With President Biden’s Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan set to extend more student loan relief to borrowers this summer, the federal government is pretending it can wave a magic wand to make debts disappear. But the truth of student debt “relief” is that they’re simply shifting the burden to everyone else, robbing Peter to pay Paul and funneling more steam into an inflation pressure cooker that’s already set to burst.

Bitcoin continues to flirt with its highest-ever values, driven by a surge in investment into cryptocurrency markets and anticipation of a decrease in the rate at which new bitcoins are created. On Monday, Bitcoin reached a new zenith, nearing $72,881, and maintained a price around $71,780 by Tuesday morning in New York. This impressive performance is part of a broader trend in which a record $2.7 billion was invested into cryptocurrencies just last week, with Bitcoin receiving the lion's share of this influx, as reported by CoinShares International Ltd.

Gold prices saw a slight decrease in Asian markets on Tuesday, pulling back from their recent record-breaking highs as investors decided to cash in on their gains. The anticipation of interest rate reductions as early as June, combined with a spike in demand for safe-haven assets, had propelled gold to new heights in March, nearly reaching $2,200 an ounce. Gold has dipped slightly, with spot gold dropping to $2,178.43 an ounce and gold futures for April also decreasing by 0.2% to $2,184.65 an ounce, both trading around $15 short of the previous week's peak prices.

In February, the consumer price index (CPI) saw a 0.4% increase from the previous month and has risen 3.2% over the past year, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. These figures were generally expected, though the yearly increase slightly surpassed predictions, indicating a steady but slightly accelerated inflation rate. When looking at core CPI, which excludes the more unpredictable food and energy sectors, there was also a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.8% rise year-over-year, both slightly higher than anticipated.

Something very "Troubling" is taking place in the heart of the Gold Mining Industry.  Unfortunately, most mining analysts don't quite understand what is happening.  Even the CEOs of these top gold mining companies are now being forced to make big changes as "Costs and CAPEX spending" surge higher...

With a stunning trillion dollars added to the national debt in only three months, projected to reach an incomprehensible $54 trillion within 10 years, and America’s interest payments on track to exceed defense spending next year, the question must be asked: How much longer can the debt bubble go?

Oil prices remained relatively stable, with Western Texas Intermediate futures slightly declining to close just below $78 per barrel, after experiencing the lowest intraday price in two weeks. This cautious market movement comes as investors await US inflation data, which, if higher than anticipated, could complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Additionally, key oil market reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the US are expected to be released this week, potentially influencing future oil price trajectories.

The International Jewellery Show and the International Diamond, Gem & Pearl Show, collectively attracted over 80,000 buyers from across the globe, showcasing over 4,000 exhibitors from 44 different countries and regions. Held at two distinct venues, these shows marked the successful resurgence of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council's "two shows, two venues" format, a first since the onset of the pandemic. The Diamond, Gem & Pearl Show welcomed over 31,000 buyers from 125 countries, whereas the Jewellery Show saw more than 49,000 attendees from 132 countries, demonstrating the international appeal and significance of these exhibitions in the jewellery industry.

In light of shifting monetary policy expectations, gold prices have soared, nearly touching the $2,200 per ounce mark. This recent surge, culminating in almost a 5% increase last week alone, has been propelled by a series of record highs over four consecutive sessions. The unexpected rise in the U.S. jobless rate has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may lean towards a more accommodative monetary policy, which in turn has weakened the dollar and reduced 10-year Treasury yields, further elevating gold's allure. This rally has also resulted in the highest level of net speculative bullish bets on gold in two months, indicating a strong investor confidence in the metal as a valuable hedge in times of economic unpredictability.

Despite a strong U.S. economy, soaring stock indexes, and record prices for riskier assets like bitcoin, gold continues to shine, reaching a historic high of $2,195 per ounce. This remarkable ascent, marking a 5% increase year-to-date and a 19% rise over 12 months, aligns unexpectedly with the performance of major American stock indexes, such as the S&P 500. Typically seen as a refuge during economic turmoil, gold's surge defies traditional patterns observed during past crises like the financial meltdown of the late 2000s and the COVID-19 pandemic. This anomaly suggests that investors may be seeking a hedge against potential market volatility or diversifying their portfolios amidst seemingly stable economic conditions.

The Federal Reserve's adherence to a 2% inflation target before considering interest rate cuts is increasingly becoming a point of contention among liberals, adding a layer of political pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, especially during a critical election year. This target, though formalized in policy, has sparked debates among left-leaning circles, with some advocating for a higher inflation target and others suggesting the introduction of a labor market-focused target alongside it. The recent public hearings featuring Powell have seen several Democrats scrutinizing the rationale behind the 2% figure and its significant influence within the central bank, indicating a growing desire for a reevaluation of monetary policy priorities.

The slow pace of inflation decline in the US last month, paired with a rebound in retail sales, suggests the Federal Reserve may maintain its current stance on interest rates without immediate cuts. The core consumer price index (CPI), which provides a clearer view of underlying inflation by excluding volatile items like food and fuel, is expected to have increased by 0.3% in February, following a 0.4% rise at the beginning of the year. This measured retreat in inflation and positive retail activity highlight the reasons behind the Fed's cautious approach to altering interest rates.

While speculations about the U.S. Federal Reserve easing monetary policies have ignited this week's gold market frenzy, the true groundwork for this unparalleled surge traces back to China's growing demand. After a period of stagnation, gold prices have shattered previous records, climbing to new highs each day since last Tuesday. Despite the absence of major geopolitical or economic events typically driving such spikes, the gold rally has puzzled many. Analysts point towards a variety of potential catalysts, including significant interest from investment funds and the influence of algorithmic trading amplifying market movements. This unexpected leap underscores the complex interplay of global financial strategies and the ever-volatile nature of precious metal markets.

The trend of "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) has shifted from a niche financing option for big-ticket items to a commonplace method for managing daily expenses among younger consumers. Originally popular for splurges like concert tickets or vacations, it's increasingly being used by Gen Z and millennials for routine purchases such as groceries, contact lenses, and household essentials. This shift is highlighted by the fact that individuals aged 35 and under make up over half of BNPL users, compared to their smaller representation among traditional credit card holders. The change in spending habits is also reflected in the types of products being financed through BNPL services, with apparel and accessories dropping to fourth place in popularity behind categories like travel, home, and garden, and hardware.

Mike Maloney discusses the current state of the silver market and why it’s time to buckle up for what could be one of the most significant crashes in history.