Precious metals news

Guggenheim Partners' Chief Investment Officer Anne Walsh has laid out a bold forecast for 2025, predicting quarterly Federal Reserve rate cuts totaling 75-100 basis points, contrasting sharply with market expectations that have recently scaled back to just one or two cuts. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Walsh expressed a more optimistic view on Trump's trade policies, suggesting tariffs will likely average less than 10% and be more targeted than markets fear, particularly while the dollar maintains its reserve currency status. On the investment front, Walsh sees opportunities in both bonds and equities, highlighting that the bond market's recent range-bound trading creates interesting possibilities. She identifies 5% yields on 10-year Treasury bonds as an "extreme" buying opportunity and expects tight yield spreads to benefit U.S. equities. Walsh projects 8-10% returns for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, driven by artificial intelligence, energy sector developments, and manufacturing resho...

Gold prices are advancing toward their highest levels since early November, trading near $2,725 an ounce, as markets react to President Trump's announcement of planned 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While China has been temporarily spared from immediate tariffs, Trump's indication that he's still considering universal import tariffs has kept market tension high. The precious metal's rise reflects both immediate trade war concerns and broader uncertainties about the new administration's policies. The market response has been particularly notable in silver, which briefly spiked 1.2% to $31.525 an ounce, given Mexico's position as the leading global producer. Beyond immediate trade concerns, gold's momentum is being supported by multiple factors, including potential inflation pressures from Trump's domestic agenda of tax cuts and increased spending, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and central bank buying. Analysts like Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva suggest the combination of tariff implementation and re...

Americans and citizens worldwide must be prepared to pay higher power bills as Data Centers' Electricity usage surges over the next four years.  Not only data centers but also the forecasted increase in Bitcoin mining energy use will make the situation worse if it is allowed to continue...

When we look at the long-term declining energy trendlines in many countries and regions, some have already passed the Energy Cliff.  However, debt and money printing have propped up these countries' economies even though their energy consumption is heading into a negative trend...

Rio Tinto and Glencore discuss potential $160B merger that could create a new copper powerhouse to rival industry leader BHP.

Rio Tinto and Glencore have explored what could become mining's largest-ever merger, with preliminary talks held in late 2024 to combine their $104 billion and $56 billion market capitalizations respectively. The potential deal reflects the mining industry's intense focus on copper acquisition, with both companies owning premier assets including the coveted Collahuasi mine in Chile. However, significant obstacles exist: Rio Tinto's complete exit from coal contrasts with Glencore's position as the world's biggest coal shipper, their corporate cultures differ dramatically, and Rio's CEO Jakob Stausholm has expressed skepticism about mega-deals. The talks emerge amid a wave of industry consolidation attempts, including Glencore's recent Teck Resources coal unit acquisition and BHP's unsuccessful $49 billion bid for Anglo American.

The impending Trump presidency has triggered widespread anxiety in the junk debt market, particularly in Europe, where companies are racing to secure financing ahead of potential tariff implementations. The market has seen its busiest start since 2017, with 19 out of 28 loan tranches being repricings as companies seek to lock in favorable terms. Lenders are conducting extensive due diligence, exemplified by Hunter Douglas's two-hour creditor call that focused heavily on tariff impact assessments. Investment managers are already adjusting their portfolios, shifting away from vulnerable sectors like automobiles and chemicals toward domestic industries less exposed to trade tensions. While European high-yield borrowers are expected to face the initial impact, there are broader concerns about potential inflationary pressures and their effect on Federal Reserve policy, which could impact the entire credit market.

Oil futures are poised for their fourth straight week of gains, with WTI crude targeting a 2.6% weekly increase despite a minor 0.2% dip to $78.56 per barrel on Friday. The recent rally has been driven by the Biden administration's broader sanctions against Russia's energy sector, which targeted additional producers, over 180 vessels, and oilfield-service providers. These measures have prompted major buyers like India and China to seek alternative suppliers, while additional sanctions on Iran's shadow fleet could impact up to 500,000 barrels of daily crude supply. Market attention is now shifting to President-elect Trump's upcoming energy policies, with analysts suggesting he might use sanctions as a negotiating tool rather than risk triggering higher oil prices.

The cryptocurrency landscape is undergoing major shifts as Bitcoin's price fluctuates dramatically, moving from $90K to $101K within a week. At the state level, a remarkable push for Bitcoin adoption is underway, with eight states - Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Ohio, Alabama, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota - advancing legislation to establish strategic Bitcoin reserves. This movement coincides with broader national initiatives, including Trump's proposed federal Bitcoin stockpile plan, which has gained substantial industry support. Adding to the dynamics, Senator Cynthia Lummis has launched an investigation into alleged document tampering at the FDIC regarding its digital asset activities, particularly concerning Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank. The industry's optimism is culminating in a lavish Crypto Ball in Washington D.C., sponsored by major players like Coinbase and featuring exclusive access to Trump, highlighting the growing intersection of cryptocurrency and politics.

Wall Street banks are launching an ambitious campaign to reshape capital regulations, emboldened by Trump's pending return to the White House and their recent victory in halving proposed Basel capital requirements. Leading institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are targeting multiple regulatory reforms, including reducing the capital surcharge for global banks and restructuring the Federal Reserve's stress testing framework. Banking executives argue that the current nearly $1 trillion combined capital requirement is excessive, pointing to their stability during the COVID-19 pandemic and their role in stabilizing regional banks during the 2023 crisis as evidence of their financial strength. While banks achieved some regulatory relief during Trump's first term, they view the upcoming administration change, including an earlier-than-expected appointment of a new Federal Reserve regulatory chief, as a unique opportunity for more comprehensive reform.

Key developments in the basic materials sector show varying performance across companies and regions. Orla Mining reported disappointing Q4 gold production of 26,500 ounces, falling 15% below expectations due to 4,100 ounces remaining in refined inventory. Meanwhile, Antofagasta's 2025 capital expenditure guidance of $3.9 billion exceeded analyst expectations by 11%. Rio Tinto delivered strong copper production, particularly at Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi mines, while reporting steady iron-ore output despite an increasing mix of lower-quality SP10 ore. The company notes global economic resilience with moderating inflation, though challenges persist from geopolitical tensions, labor shortages, and China's property market crisis, even as the U.S. economy maintains stable performance.

The incoming Trump administration is developing comprehensive sanctions targeting the oil sectors of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, focusing on three persistent diplomatic challenges facing the United States. The measures aim to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine, address concerns about Iran's nuclear program, and respond to Venezuela's democratic backsliding. However, sanctioning these major oil producers presents significant challenges for global markets, particularly following recent oil price increases triggered by Biden's sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Russia's financial strain is evident, with its National Wellbeing Fund's liquid assets dropping 24% to 3.8 trillion rubles in 2024, largely due to war-related expenditures. The news coincides with BP's announcement of significant job cuts and restructuring efforts under CEO Murray Auchincloss.

Gold futures surged 1.25% to $2,746.40 on Thursday, marking their third consecutive daily gain and the third-highest close in history. The precious metal has rallied in seven of the past eight sessions, climbing 4.46% year-to-date, supported by shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations and standing just 1.51% below its all-time high of $2,788.50.

December's retail sales data painted a picture of resilient U.S. consumer spending, with a 0.4% overall increase and a notable 0.7% jump in core retail sales. The strength was broad-based, with significant gains in auto dealerships (0.7%), furniture stores (2.3%), and sporting goods retailers (2.6%). This robust performance, combined with December's strong employment figures showing a 4.1% unemployment rate, has prompted economists to revise their Q4 GDP growth estimates upward to nearly match Q3's 3.1% pace. The data suggests that wage growth continues to drive consumer spending, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's considerations for interest rate cuts in 2024.

In this eye-opening discussion, Alan Hibbard from GoldSilver.com shares why 2025 could be a game-changing year for precious metals

Federal Reserve officials are signaling a more conservative approach to rate cuts in 2025 compared to 2024's full percentage point reduction. Their cautious stance is influenced by persistent above-target inflation, robust labor market conditions, and uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of Trump's second-term policies, including potential tax cuts and tariffs. The divide between hawks and doves reflects varying concerns about inflation risks versus labor market stability.

Oil prices rallied significantly with WTI crude reaching $80.04 and Brent hitting $82.03 per barrel, driven by winter demand and concerns over U.S. sanctions on Russia. The market is responding to multiple factors: eight consecutive weeks of U.S. crude inventory drawdowns, speculation about the incoming Trump administration's stance on Iran, and the International Energy Agency's forecast of 1.05 million barrels per day demand growth in 2025. Meanwhile, Constellation Energy's acquisition of Calpine for $16.4 billion is reshaping the power sector landscape.

Oil prices declined on Thursday, with Brent crude falling 1.29% to $80.97 and WTI dropping 1.87% to $78.54, primarily due to expectations of reduced Houthi attacks in the Red Sea following a Gaza ceasefire agreement. The market also responded to strong U.S. retail data and Fed Governor Waller's comments suggesting potential earlier rate cuts, while anticipating policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration and monitoring OPEC+'s cautious stance on production increases.

Gold has climbed to its highest level in over a month, trading at $2,719.49 per ounce, as multiple economic indicators point toward potential monetary policy easing. This rally was fueled by a confluence of factors: weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, including higher jobless claims of 217,000 versus the forecast 210,000, and December's core inflation increase of just 0.2% after four consecutive months of 0.3% gains. These developments have significantly influenced market expectations, with traders now anticipating 37 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, up from 31 basis points before the inflation data. The precious metal's appeal is further enhanced by declining Treasury yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Gaza where recent airstrikes have resulted in significant casualties despite ceasefire announcements, reinforcing gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset and hedge against inflation.

The U.S. dollar weakened Thursday despite mixed economic data, with traders focusing on the upcoming Trump inauguration and potential policy shifts. While retail sales showed modest growth and unemployment claims remained at healthy levels, markets are particularly attentive to Treasury nominee Scott Bessent's upcoming hearing and the possibility of new tariffs. The dollar index fell 0.09% to 108.92, while experiencing notable declines against the yen and maintaining pressure on China's yuan.