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    Stocks Tumble Following Latest Jobs Report
Apr 4, 2024 - 12:52:33 PDT
In Thursday's late-afternoon trading, the entire S&P 500 index faced declines, notably led by a 1.5% drop in the information technology sector. Other key sectors, including healthcare, financials, communication services, materials, and industrials, also fell sharply by over 1%. Overall, the U.S. stock market saw significant downturns: the S&P 500 dropped by 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.3%, as per the latest FactSet data.
    The Alibaba Conundrum and Gold's Rally
Apr 4, 2024 - 10:48:32 PDT
The connection between shares in Chinese tech giant Alibaba and gold may not be immediately obvious, but an article from Barron's suggests the two could be interlinked. Alibaba, a leading Chinese tech firm, has experienced a sharp decline in its stock value, losing over 75% since late 2020, amid regulatory pressures and China's economic slowdown. This downtrend contrasts starkly with the surge in gold prices, which have reached record highs above $2,300 per troy ounce, marking a 12% increase this year alone. This situation highlights the debate over the potential of Chinese stocks to recover and the role of gold as a safe haven for investors during times of uncertainty.
In 2024, gold prices have been on the rise, driven by increasing investor interest in the commodity amidst a volatile global environment marked by geopolitical tensions and predictions of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve. State Street Global Advisors' Chief Gold Strategist, George Milling-Stanley, highlighted that historical patterns show gold thrives in such turbulent times. He also noted the broadening appeal of gold to investors, suggesting a strong performance outlook for the metal, potentially reaching up to $2,400.
The strong US dollar is challenging economies worldwide, compelling central banks and governments to take measures to protect their currencies. As the US economy's resilience delays anticipated interest rate cuts, the dollar has risen against almost all major currencies in 2024, surprising many analysts. Japan has hinted at possible interventions to support the yen, which is near a 34-year low, while Turkey unexpectedly raised interest rates to strengthen the lira. Other countries like China, Indonesia, Sweden, and India are also taking steps to stabilize their currencies.
    Gold Tops $2,300 -- Silver Reaches $27
Apr 4, 2024 - 06:53:55 PDT
Gold passed $2,300 per ounce briefly earlier today, fueled by anticipation of a U.S. interest rate cut. Meanwhile, silver climbed 4% to close at $27.18 an ounce, the highest since June 2021.
Gold prices soared to a new peak, surpassing $2,300 per ounce, fueled by anticipation of a U.S. interest rate cut. This optimism was kindled by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, indicating that recent positive economic data hasn't altered the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Although spot gold slightly dipped to $2,287.88 after reaching a record $2,304.09, the surge underscores investors' growing confidence in gold as a safe haven amid monetary easing expectations.
    Gold and Bitcoin: Vital Challengers to Fiat Currencies
Apr 4, 2024 - 08:01:33 EDT
Is Bitcoin truly the digital gold of the 21st century, or is it a fleeting mirage in the investment desert?
While demand for silver bullion continues to be very weak, the long-awaited Silver Breakout finally occurred.  So what's next?  It was surprising to see how quickly the Silver price hit $27, but what happens when it reaches the next important level? IMPORTANT UPDATE:  Due to visiting and assisting a very...
JPMorgan suggests that the anticipated U.S. recession might be postponed until 2025, as indicated by stronger-than-expected manufacturing activity in March. The ISM manufacturing index, which measures the health of the manufacturing sector, rose above the pivotal 50-point mark for the first time since September 2022, signaling expansion and ending a 16-month period of decline. This resurgence in factory activity, driven by sustained demand for goods and a rebound in production, is seen by JPMorgan analysts Ellen Wang and Andrew Tyler as further proof of a global manufacturing recovery.
Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman acknowledges that while the U.S. dollar's preeminent position as the primary global reserve currency won't last indefinitely, concerns about its imminent replacement are overstated. Currently, there are no viable alternatives to the dollar, which sustains its dominance in the financial markets. The speculation about rapid de-dollarization, according to Krugman, is largely exaggerated, as the greenback continues to be the preferred currency due to the lack of comparable options.
    Fed Policymakers Suggest Three Cuts This Year
Apr 3, 2024 - 13:28:08 PDT
Federal Reserve officials, typically seen as having different views on monetary policy, agree that three interest rate cuts this year would be reasonable. Despite stronger economic data casting doubt on such moves among investors, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly support the idea, following their votes to maintain rates between 5.25%-5.5% to control inflation. Daly notes that there is no rush to adjust rates given the current state of the economy, with inflation gradually declining, and persistent strength in the labor market and overall growth. Fed projections from March indicate a consensus towards three rate cuts, although nearly half of the officials anticipate two or fewer reductions this year.
This week Peter returned from vacation, and he was just in time for a surge in the price of gold. He discusses the factors contributing to gold’s record prices, the similarities between today and the 1970s, and data pointing to future inflation in America.
Even the mainstream is starting to acknowledge the massive problem of vacant office buildings littering American cities, slowly turning them into post-Covid wastelands. While a few pundits are claiming (in somewhat Orwellian fashion) that the surge in empty commercial real estate is actually a chance for a utopian turnaround in the ashes of Covid weirdness, the potential for an “Urban Doop Loop” triggered by CRE is now being widely acknowledged as a possible trigger for a broader economic meltdown.
    THE SILVER BREAKOUT: Off To $48? Triple Digits?
Apr 3, 2024 - 10:40:29 PDT
Join Mike Maloney and Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital as they delve into the silver market’s explosive breakout and its implications for investors.
Gold prices have surged to a record high, marking their seventh consecutive day of gains and defying the broader market slump. On Wednesday, continuous-contract gold futures rose by 0.5%, reaching an all-time peak of $2,308.80 per troy ounce. This year alone, gold has climbed 10.5%, with a 3.5% increase over just the past five days, contrasting sharply with declines in the stock and bond markets where indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have retreated from their peaks. Analyst Achilleas Georgolopoulos from XM highlights gold's "unprecedented strength," noting its ability to rally under various market conditions, including those that would typically hinder its performance. This phenomenon raises concerns among some analysts, suggesting caution after such an extended period of gains.
Gold prices reached a new zenith on Monday, continuing their upward trajectory fueled by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and the enduring allure of gold as a haven during uncertain times. The spot price of gold climbed 0.6%, reaching $2,245.79 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures surged over 1% to $2,266.39 per ounce. Joseph Cavatoni, a market strategist at the World Gold Council, described this as a thrilling time for gold, attributing the rally to growing investor confidence in the anticipated Federal Reserve cuts. Market observers are keenly anticipating rate reductions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, possibly in May or June, further stoking the bullish sentiment in the gold market.
Peter Spina from Goldseek.com reports an unprecedented surge in the silver futures market, marking the highest daily trading volume in two years. A staggering 650+ million digital ounces of silver exchanged hands, translating to approximately $17 billion in liquidity across 130,000 contracts. This significant uptick in trading activity raises the question: Is silver poised for a major move in the near future?
The Biden administration has decided against proceeding with its plan to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) due to the current high oil prices. This decision was influenced by the desire to prioritize taxpayer interests, particularly in not purchasing up to 3 million barrels of oil for the Louisiana SPR site as previously planned for August and September. This change of course comes as oil prices have surged, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate exceeding $85 a barrel for the first time since October. Despite aiming to buy oil at or below $79 a barrel to refill the reserve, the administration's most recent acquisition cost an average of about $81 per barrel. The Energy Department stated it would delay further purchases, waiting for more favorable market conditions, and continue to monitor the situation closely.
In February, central banks globally continued to increase their gold reserves, adding 19 tonnes (t) to their stockpiles, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth. However, this was a 58% decrease from January's addition of 45t, primarily due to a mix of slower purchases and increased sales. Despite this slowdown, the year-to-date figures show a significant accumulation of 64t in the first two months of the year. While this is 43% less than the same period in 2023, it represents a fourfold increase compared to 2022. Emerging market banks, particularly in China and India, are the main drivers of this demand. The slight dip in February's accumulation pace has not significantly altered the overall upward trend of central banks bolstering their gold reserves.
In March climbed to unprecedented highs over $2,200 per ounce. But this milestone wasn't solely attributed to geopolitical tensions, which historically have spurred such surges. This deviation suggests a unique bull market for gold, indicating broader economic forces at play beyond the usual conflict-driven rallies. This situation hints at a deeper, more structural shift in the gold market, potentially heralding a new era for gold investing that’s driven by factors beyond immediate geopolitical crises.