Precious metals news

Morgan Stanley strategists have detected a "silent plurality" of investors prepared to short the dollar, contrasting with the more vocal dollar bulls currently dominating market discourse. Their analysis suggests significant bearish pressure could emerge from multiple catalysts, including March inflation data potentially supporting Fed rate cuts, congressional fiscal negotiations, and a more moderate trade policy approach than markets expect. The bank's notably bearish forecast predicts the US Dollar Index falling to 105 by Q1 end and 101 by year-end, significantly lower than median forecasts of 108.7 and 106.9. While the dollar has strengthened against most major currencies recently, particularly those vulnerable to U.S. tariff threats, it has weakened 1.6% this week following Trump's softer stance on China tariffs. Morgan Stanley strategist David Adams recommends shorting the dollar against the euro, yen, and sterling, suggesting that many investors are waiting not for directional conviction but for opt...

President Trump's video address to the World Economic Forum in Davos presented a clear carrot-and-stick approach to global business leaders on his third day in office. He promised among the lowest taxes worldwide for companies manufacturing in America while warning of substantial tariffs for those who don't, suggesting these penalties could generate "trillions of dollars" for the US treasury. The speech drew a packed audience of 850 in Davos's largest hall, with mixed reactions from attendees. Trump's appearance included notable moments such as his claim about Saudi Arabia's planned $600 billion investment, which he suggested could increase to $1 trillion, drawing laughter from the audience. He also addressed the Russia-Ukraine conflict, expressing desire to meet with Putin while criticizing OPEC+ for maintaining high oil prices that he believes sustain the war. The response from attendees ranged from appreciation of his preparedness to criticism of his "America First" approach, with Amnesty International...

President Trump indicated a preference to avoid imposing tariffs on China while maintaining them as a negotiating tool, causing Chinese markets and the yuan to rise. His softer approach since taking office includes giving TikTok a reprieve and hosting Vice President Han Zheng at his inauguration, though he maintains the threat of 10% tariffs starting February 1st over fentanyl concerns.

The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting could challenge the stock market's recent surge as investors assess the timing of future rate cuts. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25-4.5%, market participants are particularly focused on conditions that could trigger resumed rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in roughly two cuts by year-end. The meeting's significance is amplified by Trump's return to office, as his calls for immediate rate cuts and potential tariff policies could influence the Fed's inflation outlook. Additionally, the market faces another test as major tech companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, prepare to release earnings reports, with the "Magnificent Seven" stocks trading at significantly higher valuations than the broader market.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon displayed a notably relaxed attitude toward potential import tariffs under a second Trump administration, telling CNBC viewers to "get over it" if such measures prove "a little inflationary" but benefit national security. His stance comes as JPMorgan announced his 2024 compensation package of $39 million - an 8% increase from 2023's $36 million, substantially outpacing the 2.9% inflation rate. The pay raise reflects JPMorgan's exceptional performance, with record profits of $58.5 billion on $180.6 billion revenue and 22% return on tangible common equity. The compensation structure reveals only $1.5 million in base salary and $5 million cash bonus, with the remainder in performance share units.

Gold prices continued their upward momentum, reaching $2,774.19 per ounce and approaching their October record of $2,790.15, driven by President Trump's demands for immediate interest rate cuts and his softened stance on China trade tariffs. The precious metal's fourth straight weekly gain coincides with the dollar hitting a one-month low, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers. Speaking at the World Economic Forum, Trump's comments on monetary policy and trade have reinforced gold's appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Independent analyst Ross Norman forecasts gold reaching $3,175 in 2025, while the broader precious metals market shows strength with silver, palladium, and platinum all positioned for weekly gains. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and potential new sanctions on Russia could further influence market dynamics, particularly for palladium given Russia's significant role in production.

Gold prices climbed toward historic highs, trading near $2,770 per ounce as President Trump's softened stance on China tariffs triggered a dollar decline. In a Fox News interview, Trump expressed reluctance to impose levies on China, causing the dollar to drop 0.7% and making gold more attractive to international buyers. The precious metal has gained nearly 3% this week, bolstered by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty surrounding the new administration's policies. While Trump's comments on European tariffs and calls for immediate interest rate cuts added complexity to the market outlook, UBS strategist Joni Teves suggests investors will likely maintain gold positions as a safe haven and portfolio diversifier, even during periods of dollar strength. The metal's trajectory has been supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchasing, with traders now monitoring how Trump's domestic agenda might impact inflation and monetary policy.

There are a lot of interesting events taking place in the world, especially since Trump was inaugurated into the White House.  Interestingly, we also now see the first signs of MAJOR CRACKS in the Bitcoin Mining Industry...

The 2024/25 ski season marks a historic moment for the gold/ski pass ratio, with one ounce of gold now buying 35.2 day passes, up 27.5% from last year's 27.6 passes. While ski pass prices continued their above-inflation trend with a 6% increase, gold's 35.6% surge in 2024 has made skiing remarkably affordable for gold investors. This represents the most favorable ratio in over three decades, surpassing the previous record of 29 passes per ounce in 2012/13. The current ratio shows dramatic improvement from 1998/99 when an ounce of gold purchased only 8.5 passes, reflecting gold's average annual appreciation of 6.8% over this period.

Nigerian Central Bank Governor Cardoso is promoting investment opportunities created by recent currency reforms, which led to a 41% naira depreciation in 2023. Since his appointment in September 2023, the central bank has implemented aggressive measures including an 875 basis point rate hike to 27.5%, cleared forex backlogs, and restructured exchange rate policies. These reforms attracted over $6 billion in foreign investment last year, with analysts at Deutsche Bank projecting naira stabilization at 1,500 to the dollar. The bank plans additional reforms in 2024, including new forex codes to ensure market transparency.

Gold prices climbed to four-month highs, reaching $2,757.10 as investors digest President Trump's widening trade threats against China and the EU, following similar measures targeting Canada and Mexico. The precious metal's rally reflects growing safe-haven demand amid concerns that Trump's trade and immigration policies could reignite inflation and complicate the Fed's monetary easing strategy. Gold's momentum builds on last year's record performance, which was driven by Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and central bank purchases.

The Treasury's upcoming $20 billion 10-year TIPS auction is set to yield around 2.25%, reaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Unlike 2008's liquidity-driven yield spike, current levels reflect robust economic conditions and fiscal outlook concerns. The previous TIPS auction in December showed weakening demand, with yields settling seven basis points above expectations. Market dynamics have evolved significantly since 2008, with the TIPS market now three times larger and supported by more long-term investors and proactive Fed intervention policies.

Turkey's central bank delivered another 250 basis point cut to its key interest rate, lowering it to 45% while signaling more reductions ahead. The bank altered its policy framework by removing monthly inflation metrics from its decision-making criteria, focusing instead on expected and realized inflation trends. Despite inflation running at 44.4% in December, markets project a decline to 27% by year-end, though this remains above the central bank's 21% target. The challenge lies in balancing growth support - as Turkey faces technical recession - with managing inflation expectations, which currently exceed official projections.

A significant market sentiment shift is underway as investors move from defensive hedging to bullish positioning, according to Nomura's Charlie McElligott. With the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs, volatility-controlled funds are expected to purchase approximately $40 billion in S&P 500 futures as market volatility has dramatically decreased, with five-day realized volatility dropping from 22.2 to 8.7. This repositioning has driven increased interest in Big Tech, AI, semiconductors, small-caps, and gold. However, McElligott warns that aggressive positioning by these funds could lead to market instability rather than steady gains.

Mexico's annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, beating expectations and continuing its downward trend from December's 3.99%. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices offset rising energy costs. Banxico, having cut rates by 25bps for four consecutive meetings to 10%, now faces a critical decision between maintaining its cautious approach or accelerating cuts. The decision is complicated by potential US tariffs and economic headwinds, with analysts split between expectations of a 25bp or 50bp cut at the February 6 meeting. Citi's survey shows 17 of 30 economists favoring a quarter-point reduction to 9.75%, while 13 predict a half-point cut to 9.5%.

Mexico's annual inflation dropped to 3.69% in early January, below both expectations and December's 3.99% rate, as Banxico weighs accelerating its monetary easing cycle. While core inflation remained stable at 3.72%, a 2.67% decline in produce prices helped counter an 0.82% surge in energy costs. Despite the favorable inflation data, some central bank officials remain cautious about larger rate cuts due to uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs and Fed policy. Market expectations are split, with 17 of 30 economists forecasting a quarter-point cut to 9.75% in February, while 13 predict a half-point reduction to 9.5%.

Gold prices pulled back 0.4% to $2,744.49/oz following a three-month peak, with technical indicators suggesting an overbought position as the RSI reaches 64. Markets are digesting President Trump's proposed tariffs - 25% on Canada and Mexico, 10% on China, and potential levies on European imports starting February 1. The precious metal's trajectory toward $3,000 remains supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions, including Trump's threats of sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. The Fed's upcoming January meeting adds another dimension, though rates are expected to hold steady with 96% probability.

Gold prices pulled back marginally from recent highs but maintain strong momentum, trading at $2,750/oz - just $40 shy of all-time records and on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain. Investors are closely monitoring President Trump's proposed trade tariffs targeting major trading partners, while also awaiting US jobless claims data for insights into the Federal Reserve's rate policy. The precious metal's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been bolstered by geopolitical uncertainties, central bank purchasing, and the Fed's shift to rate cuts. Trump's domestic policies, including tax cuts and immigration restrictions, could further support gold prices by potentially impacting growth and inflation dynamics.

Are we on the brink of a major economic shift? In this insightful interview, Alan Hibbard sits down with macro strategist Laurent Lequeu

Oil markets held steady on Wednesday as traders assess multiple factors affecting global energy markets. President Trump's proposed tariffs - 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports starting February 1 - have shifted market focus from Russian sanctions to potential trade policy impacts. Additionally, Trump's declaration of a national energy emergency and plans to maximize domestic production have yet to significantly influence prices. Meanwhile, operational disruptions from severe winter weather affected Motiva's Port Arthur complex and reduced North Dakota's oil production by 130,000-160,000 barrels per day.