Precious metals news

UBS predicts a rally in commodities based on strong fundamentals. They raised their gold demand forecast due to record central bank purchases and sustained Chinese buying, expecting prices to reach USD 2,600/oz by year-end. Copper is also expected to see price gains, driven by supply challenges and China's housing policies, with prices forecasted to hit USD 11,500/mt by year-end. UBS projects a 10% return for broad commodity indexes over the next 6-12 months and recommends an active investment approach in commodities like oil.

The U.S. economy's unexpected resilience, driven by a strong job market and consumer spending, has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay or cancel planned rate cuts to combat persistent inflation. Minutes from the Fed's May meeting indicate a readiness to tighten policy if inflation risks persist. As the Fed prepares to release updated growth and inflation forecasts, market expectations for rate cuts are diminishing, influenced by robust economic performance and the upcoming presidential election.

Gold prices have surged due to strong demand from Asia, with futures rising from $2,052 to $2,360 over three months. Julius Baer attributes this increase not to overall demand growth, but to regional shifts and a greater willingness to pay, especially in China. The Chinese central bank has significantly contributed to this demand, driven by economic and geopolitical motives, including reducing reliance on the US dollar. Julius Baer also holds a positive outlook on silver.

Zimbabwe has shifted from extreme inflation to deflation with the introduction of its new currency, the ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold), which replaced the unstable Zimbabwean dollar. In May, consumer prices fell by 2.4% from the previous month, marking a significant change from the previous currency's volatility. This is Zimbabwe's sixth attempt in 15 years to establish a stable currency, following the Zimbabwean dollar's repeated crashes and 80% devaluation against the US dollar earlier this year.

The inverted yield curve, a reliable recession indicator where short-term Treasury yields exceed long-term ones, is showing signs of losing its predictive power. Despite being inverted for a record duration, no major economic slowdown has occurred. U.S. employment remains strong, and economic growth is expected to improve. If a recession doesn't happen soon, the yield curve's credibility as a recession predictor could be damaged, highlighting how the Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted traditional market assumptions.

The Nasdaq closed above 17,000 for the first time on Tuesday, driven by Nvidia's 7% surge and gains in semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 saw slight gains, while the Dow dropped as rising Treasury yields impacted the market. The tech sector led gains, while healthcare and industrials declined. Afternoon trading saw stocks lose ground due to weak debt auctions pushing Treasury yields to multi-week highs, raising concerns about economic impact and the Federal Reserve's plans.

A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals that Americans increasingly expect more federal student debt forgiveness, with the perceived likelihood rising to 39% in April from 28.7% in December. Expectations are particularly high among older Americans. Despite some debt relief measures under President Biden, including partial forgiveness for over 10% of borrowers, student loan repayments resumed last fall after a pandemic pause. Many borrowers are struggling, with one in six behind on payments. Rising interest rates on new student loans are likely to increase pressure on the Biden administration for further relief.

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields increased and investors awaited a key inflation report expected to influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Spot gold dropped 0.82% to $2,341.53 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $2,342.30. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar have made gold less appealing. The market's reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts have also impacted gold prices. The upcoming U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data could further affect gold if it signals prolonged higher interest rates.

The price of gold has risen 16% since February 2024, but this surge doesn't guarantee future increases or a solid long-term investment strategy. Gold's historical performance shows significant fluctuations, with long periods of decline followed by recovery, making it an unpredictable and often volatile investment. While gold has offered some gains over centuries, its average annual return, after adjusting for inflation, is relatively low compared to the stock market.

The silver percentage chart shows three key silver breakouts.  The most recent Breakout resulted from a decade of backfilling and Retests.  With the silver price up nearly $10 since February, what are the current important technical levels...

Dive deep into the latest trends in gold and other markets with Alan Hibbard in this insightful video.

Despite a recent dip due to cooling demand from China and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, Wall Street experts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of silver and gold. Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG believes the "Great Reflation trade" still has potential, highlighting silver's strong performance relative to gold as a sign of a robust precious metals bull market. He asserts that gold has not yet reached its peak, suggesting further upside potential.

Gold prices rose nearly 1% to $2,354 on Monday after bouncing off a two-week low of $2,325, amid thin trading due to holidays in the UK and US. Strong US economic data and Federal Reserve signals of a longer timeline to achieve a 2% inflation target have dampened hopes for monetary easing, putting pressure on gold last week. The upcoming US PCE Price Index is expected to show core inflation rising 2.8% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.

Major retailers like Target and Walmart are offering summer discounts to attract inflation-weary shoppers. These price cuts, primarily on groceries, aim to provide relief as inflation begins to ease slightly. Despite continued consumer spending, reports from Walmart, Macy’s, and Ralph Lauren indicate a shift towards more price-conscious shopping habits, with customers favoring store brands and delaying non-essential purchases.

In a Yahoo Finance interview, Keith Bliss, founder and CEO of BloxCross, discussed the performance of gold, silver, and copper as they hit record highs. Bliss argued that copper, known as "doctor copper" for its economic indicators, is the best investment choice. He explained his preference to hosts Jared Blikre and Sydnee Fried, emphasizing copper's unique advantages over gold and silver.

Oil prices rose amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading above $83 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate above $79. The increase follows reports of an attack on a Greek-managed vessel in the Red Sea and Israeli tanks entering Rafah in Gaza. Despite OPEC+ maintaining output cuts, oil prices have dipped since April due to weakening Asian demand. Analysts highlight ongoing geopolitical risks, inventory drawdowns, and OPEC's stance on curbs as factors supporting oil prices.

Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya claims the US economy is experiencing a "quasi-synthetic recession," despite a 1.6% GDP rise last quarter. On the All-In Podcast, he suggested that over half of Americans perceive a recession due to potentially misleading GDP components, which include consumer spending, corporate and government expenditures, and exports.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed should see significant progress on inflation before considering interest rate cuts. In a CNBC interview, he emphasized the need for several months of positive inflation data and mentioned the possibility of further rate hikes if inflation does not decrease. Although Kashkari initially anticipated two rate cuts this year, continued inflation may prevent any cuts by year-end. Recent data showed a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. consumer prices in April.

Gold, silver, and copper have recently pulled back from their record highs but remain close to those levels, with analysts predicting further price increases over the next year. Gold prices, currently at $2,351.3 per ounce, have been supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, lower Treasury yields, and strong Chinese demand, which drove a significant price rally. UBS strategists forecast gold prices to reach $2,500 by September and $2,600 by year-end due to continued robust demand from China and soft U.S. economic data affecting rate cut expectations.

Credit card debt is becoming a growing concern for the economy, with severe delinquencies rising to 10.7% in the first quarter, the highest in 14 years, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Younger borrowers are particularly struggling as interest rates hit a 23-year high. Total credit card debt increased to $1.12 trillion from just under $1 trillion a year ago, signaling potential risks to consumer spending.