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The famous quote, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” is usually attributed to Albert Einstein. While intended as a parable for quantum insanity, such a quote could equally be a parable for inflation policy.
Money supply growth fell again in November, and this time it turned negative for the first time in 28 years. November's drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years.
In the waning days of 2022, one of the most bearish (and accurate, at least as far as last year was concerned) strategists, SocGen's resident permabear Albert Edwards, laid out what he thinks will be the big surprise of 2023, which will be "a return to deflation fears as headline CPI inflation drops close to, or likely below zero. Investors are already anticipating recession and have an unusually strong preference for bonds."
First, banks are stashing cash with the New York Fed on an “overnight basis” although it is looking pretty permanent to me. Repos (or repuchase agreements) soared to $2.55 TRILLION as of 12/30/22.
If we look at the US Housing Leading Growth index (courtesy of RecessionAlert.com) has slumped to its worst reading since the recessions of 1982 and 2008.
    Is The US Economy Already In A Recession?
Jan 3, 2023 - 08:54:16 PST
A simple measure of IMPENDING recession is the US yield curve which is currently inverted. Typically, a recession occurs within months of the yield curve inverting. But if we look at real GDP growth, the Atlanta Fed GDP tracker is at 3.7%, so no recession there (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is often used as a measure of recession).
There is growing expectations from markets that slowing economic growth and reduced inflation rates could lead to a more dovish approach from the Fed, with only a 25 basis point hike on January 31.
The price of gold notched a six-month high early on Tuesday, and analysts believe the rally has further to go in 2023.
    Gold Will Reflect Inflation
Jan 3, 2023 - 08:08:17 PST
The bottom line is gold will increasingly reflect this latest inflation super-spike in 2023.  Gold investment demand will return with a vengeance as 2022’s illusions are dispelled. 
    Gold is Outperforming Everything
Jan 3, 2023 - 08:07:16 PST
This is Gold against the conventional investment portfolio, which is within 1% of a two-year high. When it breaks above 160, it will explode higher, indicating growing mainstream adoption of Gold.
If my take of late and over the decades is correct (as I believe to be the case), the consequences of an end to what has been a four-decade price manipulation in silver must be necessarily extreme.
    Gold Was the Most Popular Asset of 2022
Jan 3, 2023 - 07:18:08 PST
Any way you slice it, 2022 was a turbulent year, from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to historic inflation and jumbo rate hikes to multiple failures in the digital asset space. These have had wide-ranging implications for the world of finance that are sure to carry over into next year.
    Gold Touches Six-Month High in Positive Start to 2023
Jan 3, 2023 - 06:08:49 PST
Gold prices made a positive start to the new year, with prices touching a more than six-month peak on Tuesday as investors positioned for the Federal Reserve's latest policy minutes. Spot gold, which had ended a volatile 2022 little changed, rose 0.5% to $1,832.59 per ounce by 1205 GMT after touching its highest since June 17 at $1,849.89. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $1,839.40.
    The Truth About Gold and Silver
Jan 3, 2023 - 06:06:49 PST
There were all the usual gold and silver bullion coins from all lands, all worth the price of their metal content. All are vastly up in value from when he bought them. There were also hundreds of silver dimes. And there were plenty of numismatics too and because I don’t know my way around this world, I’ll let the experts determine their value.
    IMF Head Warns Third Of World In Recession This Year
Jan 3, 2023 - 06:05:50 PST
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on CBS's 'Face the Nation' in an interview aired on Jan. 1 that a third of the global economy will be in recession this year and investors must prepare for "a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind."
Samuel Greg, a Distinguished Fellow in Political Economy at the American Institute for Economic Research and author, most recently, of The Next American Economy: Nation, State, and Markets in an Uncertain World, has written a good piece for the Spectator about the WEF on the eve of Davos 2023.
    US Inflation: How Much Have Prices Increased In 2022?
Jan 3, 2023 - 05:59:54 PST
Inflation has been top of mind over the last year, looming over every aspect of the economy. But how has inflation actually impacted the prices of everyday goods like bread and butter or gas and public transportation?
    German CPI Plunges Most Since 2015, But...
Jan 3, 2023 - 05:57:59 PST
Bloomberg reports that the decline to single digits in the main rate masks an increase in food costs across Germany at the end of 2022, aggravating a squeeze on the poorest families and stoking the risk of a wage-price spiral.
Euro zone wages are growing quicker than earlier thought and the European Central Bank must prevent this from adding to already high inflation, ECB President Christine Lagarde told a Croatian newspaper.
    Europe Goes on Blackout Watch as Winter Descends: WSJ
Jan 3, 2023 - 05:51:06 PST
Europe’s energy-squeezed winter has sent power operators and businesses into high alert for blackout risks, heightened by Russia’s war in Ukraine.