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The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is plunging and just fell below 90. The index was above 100 before the Wuhan virus outbreak in 2020, but has only been at 100 or above for only two months under Biden. And the trend is definitely looking bleak as The Federal Reserve fights inflation with M2 Money growth having collapsed to 0% YoY growth.
The 2-year to 10-year inversion is one of the most widely followed recession indicators. It has been inverted continually since July 6, 2022. The 3-month to 10-year inversion is even more extreme. It has been continually inverted since October 18, 2022.
Update: And in a very anticlimatic twist, we just learned that while talking about climate change (and the Fed's role in it), Powell will not discuss monetary policy, so all that excitement was for nothing.
The central bank leader noted that stabilizing prices requires making tough decisions that can be unpopular politically.
Gold prices were little-changed early Tuesday after the yellow metal settled at its highest level in eight months as investors waited to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The rise has puzzled analysts, who note that there aren’t any obvious macro narratives to drive gold’s move. Have inflation fears picked up over the last two months? No, and if anything it’s the opposite case. Movement in gold is often associated with geopolitics. Yet nothing particularly novel has happened on that front of late.
More Americans carry credit card debt from month to month as living expenses stay high, according to a new report by Bankrate.
    China Deflation Pressure Worsens as Economy Slumps
Jan 10, 2023 - 05:35:25 PST
Deflationary pressure in China worsened in the fourth quarter as the economy slumped, with price-growth likely to be subdued even when the economy rebounds later this year, according to China Beige Book International.
Coinbase Global (COIN) said in an SEC filing Tuesday that it would lay off approximately 20% of its employees, or around 950 employees, as part of larger cost-cutting measures amid continued turbulence in the cryptocurrency industry.
On Monday evening, the House GOP voted on its first policy bill since taking control.
Core consumer prices in Japan's capital, a leading indicator of nationwide trends, rose a faster-than-expected 4.0% in December from a year earlier, exceeding the central bank's 2% target for a seventh straight month in a sign of broadening inflationary pressure. The increase, which was the fastest pace in four decades, will likely underpin market expectations the Bank of Japan...
Saudi Arabia has pulled in more than $20 billion of investor orders for a triple-tranche dollar bond that marks its first Eurobond sale this year.
Goldman Sachs believes oil prices could trade at $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year as global demand grows.
The job cuts have been concentrated in the tech industry and have included Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc., Twitter Inc., and Microsoft The slowdown in the tech industry has also started to reverberate on Wall Street where revenue for tech-related deals has fallen off. Employers added 223,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.
\Jamie Dimon said the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes might need to go beyond what’s currently expected, but he’s in favor of a pause to see the full impact of last year’s increases.
U.S. banking giants are forecast to report lower fourth quarter profits this week as lenders stockpile rainy-day funds to prepare for an economic slowdown that is battering investment banking. Along with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, they are the six largest lenders expected to amass a combined $5.7 billion in reserves to prepare for soured loans, according...
Investors looking at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at a conference at Sweden’s Riksbank Tuesday will be tempted to carefully parse his words for any hint as to when the interest-rate increases will stop.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said borrowing costs must be lifted much further, with inflation only just having dipped back into single digits.
\Some of the world’s largest asset managers such as BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Carmignac are warning markets are underestimating both inflation and the ultimate peak of US rates, just like a year ago.
    Stock Futures Fall Ahead of Powell Remarks
Jan 10, 2023 - 05:14:48 PST
U.S. stock futures pulled back early Tuesday as Wall Street processed hawkish rate talk from Federal Reserve officials and awaited comments from Chair Jerome Powell.