Precious metals news

In this eye-opening video, financial expert Mike Maloney discusses the imminent threat of another banking crisis, potentially hitting before...

Oil prices remained stable as OPEC upheld its strong demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025, anticipating steady global economic growth. Despite a recent sell-off due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production later this year, crude oil rebounded, with U.S. crude recording its best day since February 8. Current energy prices show minor changes, with West Texas Intermediate at $77.63 and Brent at $81.54. OPEC projects oil demand to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.8 million bpd in 2025, driven by stable economic growth and increased travel and tourism.

In May, gold posted its third consecutive monthly gain, rising by 2% to $2,348/oz and reaching a record high of $2,427/oz before pulling back due to profit-taking. Despite moderate gains, market activity remained supportive with high net long positions on COMEX and significant inflows into gold ETFs. While no single variable dominated, factors like momentum and a weaker US dollar contributed marginally, with strong over-the-counter buying, including central bank purchases, playing a significant role. Looking ahead, a potential peak in the US dollar could further benefit gold.

The gold market is showing strong support around the $2,300 level as we approach the FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference. Despite a slight pullback, if gold captures the 50-day EMA, it could rally, overcoming last Friday's sell-off. A drop below $2,280 might trigger a correction to $2,200 or $2,150, but the long-term uptrend remains intact. Buyers seem determined to sustain gold's price, driven by potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical concerns, making it risky to short the market now.

This week's U.S. inflation data could influence the Federal Reserve's timeline for potential interest rate cuts. As the Fed meets, the release of new inflation figures on Wednesday will play a crucial role in shaping their policy statement. If the data shows significant progress in reducing inflation towards the 2% target, the Fed might signal an eventual rate cut, which would lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

UBS analysts suggest buying gold during price dips, following a recent 3% decline after positive U.S. employment data. They note potential under-reporting of China's gold reserves and recommend purchasing gold around $2,250-$2,300 per ounce. UBS anticipates near-term pressure on gold prices due to possible CPI surprises but expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2024. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and the US elections approaching, they recommend a 5% gold allocation in USD-balanced portfolios.

The U.S. government’s debt has surpassed $34 trillion, a figure resulting from years of overspending beyond its revenue. This situation isn't new; the U.S. has been in debt since its inception, starting with loans from the American Revolutionary War. Experts like Les Rubin attribute the rising debt to irresponsible fiscal policies, while Eric Mangold points out that unlike individuals, the government can print more money to cover its debts. However, this leads to higher taxes and potential economic consequences if the debt remains unpaid.

The upcoming update to the Federal Reserve's "dot plot" will provide insights into the central bank's commitment to easing monetary policy. While Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed are expected to maintain interest rates for the seventh consecutive meeting, economists are divided on the number of rate cuts that will be indicated in the forecasts. A Bloomberg survey shows that 41% of economists anticipate two cuts, while others expect one or none. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark rate by over five percentage points and has held rates at a two-decade high since July.

Since John Williams became president of the New York Federal Reserve in 2018, concerns have arisen about the institution's declining influence and loss of talent. Numerous senior officials have left since 2022, raising worries about a brain drain. Critics point out that Williams, despite his strong macroeconomic background, lacks the market experience of his predecessors. Meanwhile, other regional Fed presidents with deeper finance backgrounds are perceived as overshadowing New York's traditionally dominant role. This is concerning as the New York Fed has historically been crucial in managing financial crises and will play a key role in future economic challenges.

Oil prices rose after last week's decline, with Brent crude surpassing $80 a barrel as traders anticipate key industry reports and a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates. Prices had fallen following OPEC+ plans to increase output later this year, leading to a significant drop in bullish bets on oil. Upcoming reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency, along with the Fed's rate decision, are expected to provide further market direction. Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast a significant market deficit in Q3, maintaining their Brent oil price range of $75-$90. Meanwhile, Iraq is nearing an agreement to resume disrupted oil exports from Kurdistan.

The upcoming May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show lower headline inflation, primarily due to cooling energy prices, but core inflation is expected to remain elevated. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates in June, waiting for more supportive data before considering cuts later in the year. The May CPI data, scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET on June 15, is projected to show 0.08% headline inflation and 0.3% core inflation. Policymakers will closely monitor trends in shelter costs and services prices, particularly due to their significant impact on inflation.

Concerns about a recession among executives have significantly diminished. A FactSet analysis revealed that mentions of "recession" during S&P 500 earnings calls have dropped to their lowest level since late 2021. Only 29 companies mentioned the term recently, reflecting reduced anxiety compared to the past five and ten years. This decline in recession talk follows the easing of inflation fears that peaked in 2022. Despite earlier worries, the U.S. economy continues to perform well, adding 272,000 new jobs in May, surpassing expectations.

Americans' intense dislike for inflation poses a significant challenge for the Federal Reserve. Despite improvements, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with April's rate at 2.7%. This situation complicates the Fed's decision-making, as policymakers are expected to keep interest rates steady at their highest level in over two decades. Pre-pandemic, some economists argued for a higher inflation target to avoid the "zero lower bound" problem, where the Fed's ability to cut rates in a recession is limited, leading to prolonged economic recovery and joblessness.

Gold prices remained steady on Monday after experiencing the largest drop in three and a half years on Friday due to China's central bank halting its gold purchases and a strong U.S. jobs report diminishing hopes of an imminent interest rate cut. Spot gold was stable at $2,296.17 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures dipped 0.5% to $2,313.30. The significant decline on Friday, a 3.5% drop, followed 18 months of continuous buying by China and unexpectedly strong U.S. employment data. Market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve fell from 70% to 50%. The Fed's upcoming policy meeting and U.S. inflation data will be closely watched.

This institution just became the third-largest holder of the Sprott PSLV ETF, and is why it represents a coming trend-change in global silver investment.  I also believe future institutional Silver ETF investment will likely crowd out retail investors who will move more into physical metal buying...

Not only have Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin been trading in similar patterns, but all three assets have high short positions.   In fact, Bitcoin just registered the highest short position this week.  So, what does this mean for precious metals and Bitcoin going forward...

The real estate market is responsible for anywhere from 20% to over 30% of China’s GDP (depending on who you ask). And with the latest meltdown that began with the implosion of Evergrande, the situation just keeps getting worse, inspiring a slew of government interventions beyond the scope of what would be possible in a country like the US.

Oil prices trimmed gains on Friday due to heightened demand concerns after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data diminished hopes for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Brent crude rose by 12 cents to $79.99 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased by 28 cents to $75.83. The robust jobs report suggests that rate cuts may be delayed until at least September, impacting expectations for economic activity and oil demand. Despite this, OPEC+ support from Saudi Arabia and Russia has helped stabilize prices.

In May, the U.S. added 272,000 jobs, significantly surpassing expectations of 190,000 and the previous month's 165,000. Despite the job growth, the unemployment rate rose to 4%, the highest since January 2022. Job gains were primarily in health care, government, and leisure and hospitality. Average hourly earnings also increased by 0.4% for the month and 4.1% year-over-year.

In May, the global gold market rebounded with gold ETFs ending a 12-month slump, driven by strong demand in Europe and Asia. Global gold ETF holdings rose to 3,088 tonnes, with assets under management reaching $234 billion, a 2% increase. India emerged as the third-largest gold buyer, purchasing $86.5 million worth. European and Asian gold ETFs saw significant inflows, while North America experienced minor outflows. Trading activities declined overall, with the average daily volume down 13% from April.