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Subprime Auto Lender And Used Car Retailer Collapses As Distress Cycle Finally ArrivesFeb 27, 2023 - 12:00:00 PST
One month ago, when discussing the "perfect storm" hitting the US auto market, we showed that according to Fitch "More Americans Can't Afford Their Car Payments Than During The Peak Of Financial Crisis"...
Risk of ‘Wrathful Old Testament–Style’ Reaction From Central Banks Is Rising, JPMorgan Says: MWFeb 27, 2023 - 11:39:58 PST
The 'gentle and forgiving path' taken by developed-market central banks to combat inflation in the past year is likely to prove unsuccessful, JP Morgan...
WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates.
"Biden’s industrial flop will disrupt entrepreneurial activity and hobble the American economy. We should learn the lessons of the past and accept, once and for all, that industrial policy doesn’t work, no matter how much we will it." ~ Michael N. Peterson
A Pennsylvania survey suggests that taxes are often a major barrier to economic security, ranking ahead of credit card debt and student loans.
On January 11, the market expected the terminal interest rate to be about 5.0 percent in May. By December, the market expected the Fed to cut rates to a range of 4.25 per cent to 4.50 percent.
There were still more revisions in the Census Bureau's New Home Sales report.
The decay in quality reveals that the collapse of the neoliberal-hyper-financialization-hyper-globalization model has already occurred.
China's projection of self-confidence and accusations against the US has fueled speculation that the two countries are approaching a new Cold War
Feb 27, 2023 - 08:38:14 PST
Now that Russian President Vladimir Putin has “suspended” Moscow’s involvement in the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), US President Joe Biden’s foreign policy priority of keeping the only remaining arms-control agreement between the two nuclear superpowers has been adversely affected. However, though Biden has a legitimate grievance against this Russian...
Russia Has The Most Nuclear Weapons In The World—The Other Countries With Largest Nuclear ArsenalsFeb 27, 2023 - 08:36:34 PST
Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to expand Russia’s nuclear arsenal Thursday, once again hinting at the threat of using nuclear weapons, as Russia’s arsenal already edges out that of the United States, the Federation of American Scientists estimates.
Nomura Warns "Get Back Into Cash"; Higher Volatility Looms After Rate-RepricingFeb 27, 2023 - 08:17:02 PST
Nomura's Charlie McElligott notes that the market has rightfully “trued-up” Fed terminal rate expectations in-line with spectacularly resilient growth data both domestically and internationally, following the FOMC’s multi-month “premature FCI easing” blunder which allowed for a reacceleration of “animal spirits” across inflation-, retail / consumption-, labor- and even survey- / “soft-” (particularly within Services sector) data, pouring gasoline on a still too robust economy, relative to their purported inflation-fighting aspirations.
Some markets are already deep into it, others just started. A sobering trip from the free-money decade in la-la-land, back to normal.
People Got Used to Higher Prices and Are Outspending even Raging Inflation. They Don’t Want this Thing to LandFeb 27, 2023 - 08:10:23 PST
Year-over-year growth in consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, outpaced pre-pandemic average. Month-over-month, growth spiked.
Let's review the recent personal income reports by the BEA in still more detail
OK, there is a lot of support but there is also huge resistance. From the point of view of a weekly trader, this would be a poor point to buy or sell given that it's half way between support and resistance with no good stop out point close by.
Feb 27, 2023 - 08:03:46 PST
The gap between the VIX Put-call volume and CBOE Put-call ratio is the widest since 2006, the precursor of a major volatility spike.
Feb 27, 2023 - 08:01:56 PST
US pending home sales rose 8.1% in January. At the same time, pending home sales declined -22.4% on a year-over-year (YoY) basis.
Longer-term bond yields continue to reflect an environment where inflation eventually comes back to target, and are not adequately pricing the likelihood it remains elevated and unstable.
After a shockingly large upside surprise surge (+5.6% MoM) in December, analysts expected preliminary January durable goods orders to tumble (-4.0% MoM). The actual print came in worse with a 4.5% MoM drop - the biggest drop since April 2020.