Precious metals news

Despite a pause in gold purchases in May and June, China is expected to continue its long-term strategy of accumulating gold reserves. This ongoing interest is driven by several factors: China's gold holdings remain low relative to its economic status, geopolitical tensions persist, and there's a desire to diversify away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets. While recent buying has shown some price sensitivity, experts and insiders believe that China's fundamental need to increase its gold reserves, both in absolute terms and as a share of total reserves, will sustain the country's gold demand. The strategy is seen as part of China's broader effort to align its reserves with its position as the world's second-largest economy, although the pace of purchases may fluctuate based on market conditions and geopolitical developments.

Gold prices are maintaining their strength near record highs, driven by increasing expectations of earlier interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This sentiment has led to a weaker dollar and subdued Treasury yields, further boosting gold's appeal. The precious metal's upward momentum is supported by recent dovish comments from Fed officials and signs of a cooling U.S. labor market. Analysts suggest that if these trends continue, particularly with more dovish Fed remarks and further indications of a softening job market, gold could potentially reach new all-time highs. The current market conditions are creating a favorable environment for gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation.

Goldman Sachs reports that global hedge funds have been significantly reducing their exposure to U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, over the past five trading days. This sell-off, the largest since November 2022 and approaching a five-year record, coincides with a broader market pullback in megacap tech-related stocks. The de-risking trend has been most pronounced in information technology, followed by industrial, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and communications services sectors. This shift in hedge fund positioning reflects growing caution in the market, especially towards high-growth tech stocks that have led much of the market's gains in recent years.

Major central banks are cautiously beginning to cut interest rates after a period of aggressive hikes to combat inflation. While the European Central Bank has paused after an initial cut, and the U.S. Federal Reserve may follow suit in September, other central banks like those in Switzerland, Sweden, and Canada have already made multiple cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia remain hesitant, with the latter even considering further hikes. The Bank of Japan stands out as an outlier, having raised rates for the first time in 17 years. The gradual easing reflects varying economic conditions and inflation trends across different regions.

The gold market is experiencing volatility, with initial gains on Wednesday being reversed. Despite this, the overall trend remains bullish, with significant support around $2,400 and potential for reaching $2,500. Factors supporting gold include geopolitical concerns, expectations of global central bank rate cuts, and continued gold purchases by central banks. The market is viewed as a "buy on the dip" opportunity, with pullbacks seen as potential entry points for investors. While short-term fluctuations are expected, the long-term momentum favors an upward trajectory, making gold an attractive investment for those willing to navigate its current volatility.

In Montgomery County, Maryland, a 19-year-old man, Zhenyong Weng, has been charged in a sophisticated gold bar scam that defrauded an 82-year-old woman of over $900,000. This case, the second of its kind in four months, involved complex schemes with coded communications and parking lot exchanges. Police uncovered the fraud and arrested Weng by posing as a victim. While Weng's defense attorney argues his client was only involved in a pickup, not the entire scheme, the judge deemed it a "major crime" targeting a vulnerable senior citizen. The scammers nearly obtained an additional $2.6 million before being caught. There's no apparent connection to a similar case from four months ago.

According to DataTrek, silver appears undervalued compared to gold when examining the historical gold/silver price ratio. While gold has reached new all-time highs, silver remains below its 2011 peak. The current gold/silver ratio stands at 78:1, higher than the historical average. Despite silver's 27% year-to-date gain compared to gold's 19%, silver's significant industrial demand (57% of total demand) contrasts with gold's primary role as a store of value. Historically, the gold/silver ratio has spiked during economic uncertainties. DataTrek's Nicholas Colas suggests that silver's relative undervaluation could lead to further gains this year, although gold remains the preferred long-term investment.

Former President Donald Trump has cautioned Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell against cutting interest rates before the November 2024 presidential election, despite acknowledging the possibility of such a move. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Trump stated he would allow Powell to complete his term if re-elected, provided Powell was "doing the right thing." This statement addresses concerns in financial markets about potential politicization of the Fed under a second Trump presidency. Meanwhile, Powell has recently expressed increased confidence in inflation trending towards the Fed's 2% target, fueling expectations of a rate cut in September, just weeks before the election. Trump's comments highlight the delicate balance between monetary policy and political considerations in the run-up to the election.

The stock market is showing signs of a shift away from the dominance of big technology stocks, particularly the "Magnificent 7." On Tuesday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite made gains, the Russell 2000, which represents smaller-cap stocks, significantly outperformed with a 3.5% increase. Notably, four of the seven major tech stocks, including Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta Platforms, experienced declines. This trend suggests a broadening of market performance beyond the tech giants that have led much of the recent market rally, potentially indicating a more diverse and balanced market environment.

Gold reached a record high, nearing $2,500 per ounce, as traders anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts due to cooling inflation. This surge, driven by large central bank purchases, strong consumer demand in China, and geopolitical tensions, saw gold prices rally 1.9% on Tuesday. Although Chris Weston from Pepperstone Group suggests gold might test $2,500 soon, some indicators hint at an overbought market. Additionally, political uncertainty, including a recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump, is impacting market sentiment, potentially reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal amid escalating trade tensions.

In this video, we explore the upwardly revised gold price targets from major banks like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and UBS, and analyze...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed increased confidence that inflation is moving towards the 2% target, citing recent positive data. While declining to specify a timeline for rate cuts, Powell indicated that the Fed would likely reduce rates before inflation actually reaches 2%. This stance, along with recent favorable inflation reports, has bolstered market expectations for potential rate cuts later in 2024, with September being a widely anticipated timeframe. Powell's comments suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook on inflation trends, potentially signaling a shift in the Fed's monetary policy approach in the coming months.

HSBC has revised its gold price forecast, predicting a short-term rise followed by a significant drop in 2025. Despite gold reaching record highs in May 2024, driven by safe haven demand, hedge fund purchases, and expectations of central bank rate cuts, HSBC analysts anticipate that positive real rates will eventually weigh on gold prices. While the bank has raised its 2024 average price forecast to $2,305/oz due to near-term strength, it has lowered its 2025 projection to $1,980/oz, suggesting a 12% decline from current levels. This forecast comes amid a complex market environment where strong OTC and real money investor purchases are offsetting ETF liquidations, but analysts believe the current bullish sentiment may be overstretched.

Zimbabwe's state-controlled Kuvimba Mining House Ltd. is seeking $150 million in investment to expand its Shamva gold mine, aiming to increase production by 50%. The company, which is 65% owned by the state, has completed a feasibility study for a large-scale mine and processing plant and is now in talks with potential partners. This move is part of Zimbabwe's broader strategy to acquire and develop mining assets within the country. Additionally, Kuvimba has implemented a new gold tracking system to enhance regulatory compliance both domestically and internationally, demonstrating a commitment to transparency and modernization in its operations.

Gold prices are showing modest gains on Monday as the market tests resistance near recent highs. Traders are closely monitoring U.S. Treasury yields and dollar movements while anticipating comments from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data releases. The CME Fedwatch Tool indicates a high 93% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which could potentially boost gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset. Additionally, China's recent economic slowdown in Q2 has fueled expectations for stimulus measures, which could impact gold demand from this major metals consumer. These factors, combined with mixed U.S. Treasury yields reflecting economic uncertainty, are creating a complex environment for gold prices.

China's economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 fell short of expectations, expanding by only 4.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace in five quarters. This disappointing performance is primarily attributed to weak consumer spending, which has failed to respond to government stimulus efforts. While industrial production remained robust, supporting President Xi Jinping's focus on manufacturing and high-tech sectors, the economy faces mounting challenges. These include geopolitical risks, particularly the potential for increased U.S. tariffs if Donald Trump is re-elected. The underwhelming growth figures are likely to put pressure on Chinese policymakers to implement more supportive measures, especially to boost domestic demand, as they gather for a crucial economic meeting this week.

Following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, global financial markets have shown a significant shift towards the "Trump trade" - a series of investment strategies based on the anticipation of Trump's potential return to the White House. These trades, which had already been gaining traction due to Biden's recent debate performance, intensified as Trump's resilience in the face of the attack galvanized supporters. The market reaction includes a steepening yield curve in Treasuries, a strengthening dollar, a weakening Mexican peso, and a surge in Bitcoin. Investors are positioning for potential tax cuts, higher tariffs, and looser regulations under a Trump presidency. However, with four months until the election and concerns about political instability, the situation remains fluid and subject to change.

The dollar remained steady on Monday as markets grappled with the potential implications of the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump on his 2024 election chances and subsequent market impacts. While initial reactions narrowed the odds of a Trump victory, traditionally seen as dollar-positive due to expectations of looser fiscal policy and increased trade tariffs, the currency's gains were short-lived. Investors are balancing this political development against the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, with markets now fully pricing in a September rate cut following recent inflation data. Cryptocurrencies saw significant gains, with Bitcoin and Ether both rising. The complex interplay between potential political shifts, monetary policy expectations, and global economic factors is creating a nuanced environment for currency and crypto markets.

Oil prices remained relatively stable on Monday as conflicting factors influenced the market. Concerns about demand in China, the world's largest oil importer, exerted downward pressure following slower economic growth and reduced crude imports. However, this was offset by strong demand elsewhere, OPEC+ supply restraints, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market also reacted to the attempted assassination of former U.S. President Donald Trump and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar. Despite these various influences, oil prices saw only minor changes, with Brent crude and WTI experiencing slight declines. Analysts note that while Chinese data is not supportive, demand growth in other regions remains healthy, and geopolitical factors continue to provide a premium for oil prices.

The recent CPI report showed that inflation is, according to official data, cooling down — so why are consumers more worried for the future than they’ve been in months? If prices are coming down, shouldn’t that fuel higher confidence and a greater collective sense of economic well-being? One simple answer is that the official data is cooked, using “updated” methodologies that make the picture look as positive as possible regardless of how much Americans are actually struggling.