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Zoltan Interview: “You Basically See a Commodity Supercycle in Embryonic Form”Apr 21, 2023 - 12:58:48 PDT
"You basically see a commodity supercycle in embryonic form, but it's going to grow very fast. [If geopolitics gets more complicated] you set the stage for a big bull run."
The debt-disabled U.S. economy cannot withstand the surge in borrowing costs, and the reduction in money supply growth necessary to combat the record-high inflation suffered over the past few years.
Nonetheless, the ~4% drop in headline CPI since last June has only succeeded in brining CPI down to about 5%. Meanwhile, the case for a further rapid drop in inflation is weakening, something Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor, recently warned about on CNBC:
A lot of emphasis tends to get put on the concept of a wage-price inflation spiral whereby price inflation leads to ‘wage inflation’ which feeds back into price inflation.
Extremes keep getting more extreme, but for those at the top of the heap, it's all fine. For everyone else slipping down the ladder, all that FINE adds up to Fragile, Insecure, Nonsensical, Expensive.
“Without exaggeration, America’s debt is a ticking time bomb that will detonate unless we take serious, responsible action,” he said this week.
Despite growing fearmongering, the odds of a US default are low. Odds of a payout on a default are much lower still.
"Public policy should seek to free up entrepreneurs to invest in improving productivity, and be sure not to create incentives that discourage the accumulation of productivity-enhancing capital." ~ Brian Balfour
Mississippi Becomes the 43rd State to End Sales Taxes on Gold and SilverApr 21, 2023 - 08:37:55 PDT
With the stroke of Gov. Tate Reeves’s pen on Wednesday, Mississippi has become the 43rd state in the country to end sales taxes on the purchase of physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium coins and bullion. Senate Bill 2862, sponsored by Sen. Juan Barnett (D-34), had passed out of the full senate by a vote of 52-0 and sailed through the House of Representatives by a vote of...
One of the most dishonest headlines of the week goes to CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show CNBC absolves themselves by citing that this was said in the Fed minutes, yet it does raise some interesting considerations, the idea that the upcoming recession will be due to a banking crisis. Market contacts observed that the recent developments...
US Manufacturing & Services PMIs Unexpectedly Soared In Flash April Survey, Inflation ResurgentApr 21, 2023 - 08:05:58 PDT
After mixed 'soft' regional survey data (Empire Fed spike, Philly Fed puke) and a general slide in the overall macro surprise index, expectations were for a decline in S&P Global's PMI data in preliminary April data. However, just to baffle everyone with bullshit, both manufacturing and services jumped higher in early April data with the forfmer back into expansion territory (somehow)...
Short End of the Treasury Market Goes Totally Nuts. Doubts Creep in Over Debt Ceiling?Apr 21, 2023 - 08:04:52 PDT
The good folks in Congress are surely too worried about their own wealth, and sheer greed will keep them from pushing the US into default. But…
Housing Market Takes Another Step Back: Home Prices Drop Year-over-Year for Second Month. Already Dismal Sales FellApr 21, 2023 - 08:02:36 PDT
Investors lost interest too: Sales to all-cash buyers plunged 24% year-over-year.
I wrote about new rules on mortgage rates in which the better your credit score, the higher your effective interest rates. This post is an update.
Apr 21, 2023 - 07:58:07 PDT
The result? REAL US housing prices soared while REAL averge hourly wage growth was negative for 24 straight months. THAT is the Fed error induced housing policy blunder. But it did increase the US homeownership rate (blue line).
Most Mayors Say Housing Is the Biggest Challenge in U.S. Cities, Survey FindsApr 21, 2023 - 07:51:41 PDT
After a tumultuous year in the housing market amid inflation and soaring interest rates soaring, local governments of major U.S. cities are facing a slew of economic challenges.
This article looks at the factors behind the growing rejection of the dollar for trade settlement purposes by non-aligned nations around the world. They no longer fear political or economic reprisals from America. The dollar’s monopoly was notably challenged by Saudi Arabia, which removed itself from the US’s sphere of influence to that of China and Russia.
Libertarians have long accused the banking system of engaging in a legalized form of counterfeiting that enriches a privileged few at the expense of millions of ordinary people. Historically, this illegitimate scheme has also caused recurring and significant financial disruptions, but until recently, a complete breakdown involving multiple bank runs was seen...
Argentina’s Economy Teeters on the Edge of Deeper Crisis as Market Anxiety GrowsApr 21, 2023 - 07:37:08 PDT
A customer pays for pork meat in a local market, as Argentina's annual inflation rate tore past 100% in February, the country's statistics agency said on Tuesday, the first time it has hit triple figures since a period of hyperinflation in 1991, over three decades ago, in Buenos Aires, Argentina March 14, 2023.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration was prepared to accept economic costs as it sought to protect US national security interests from threats posed by China, even as she appealed to Beijing to cooperate on shared global concerns.