Precious metals are apparently waking up. And here is where you can find the best deals.
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Jun 14, 2023 - 12:40:52 PDT
The Fed's Summary of Economic projections is far more interesting. I highlighted the median economic forecast in pink. Each dot represents the position of someone at the meeting. Looking ahead to 2025, the Fed is clueless.
Whether the Fed pauses, pivots, or not with respect to their current quest to raise interest rates does not reverse the damage that has been done by intentionally creating inflation for more than a century.
The hawkish pause - signaled by the dot-plot - prompted a kneejerk surge in rate-change expectations with July now pricing in a 70% chance of a hike and September a 95% chance of a hike as December and January have now priced out any rate-cuts... The question is, will Powell reverse all this?
Since the last FOMC statement on May 3rd, where Powell hiked rates 25bps but offered some dovish-speak during the presser, stocks have soared (well to be more accurate, mega-cap tech stocks have exploded higher) while bitcoin has been dumped. The dollar is modestly higher with gold and bonds slightly lower... There are now no Fed members expecting a recession in 2023...
While the central bank will likely skip a rate hike on Wednesday for June, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says commentary from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will remain hawkish.
Jared 'Dethrone King Dollar' Bernstein Confirmed As Top Biden Econ Adviser; Yellen Warns De-Dollarization Efforts Will GrowJun 14, 2023 - 09:47:21 PDT
Bernstein's confirmation came coincidentally the same day as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the U.S. dollar’s international status as the chief reserve currency is slowly diminishing as other countries diversify their assets, warns
North Carolina House Republicans want state savings held as gold bullion. A bill would study establishing a state gold depository.
Jun 14, 2023 - 08:04:00 PDT
Following the dot-com mania of the late 90s, the Nasdaq reached a closing high of 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000. The Nasdaq then proceeded to lose 78 percent of its value over the next 2-1/2 years. It reached a closing low of 1,114.11 on October 9, 2002.
The banks at the center of the recent crisis, like Western Alliance, are engaged in collective soul-searching.
Contrary to the still-enduring myth about Republican budget cutting, there is no correlation whatsoever between Republican control of DC and the trajectory of federal spending. Original Article: "The Republican Debt-Ceiling "Deal" Is Exactly What We Expected"
Lead chart adapted from Wikipedia German Federal Election Polls. Support for Alternative for Germany, AfD, a right-wing political party is on the rise, primarily at the expense of the Green Party.
Jun 14, 2023 - 07:55:32 PDT
The Fed will annouce a pause at today’s FOMC meeting, so don’t look for mortgage rates to do much today. Mortgage applications increased 7.2 percent from one week earlier, according to …
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday on expectations of an interest rate pause at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting concluding later in the day, while a softer dollar also boosted bullion.
The Fed Will Be Making a Big Mistake if It Skips a Rate Hike This Week, Top Economist El-Erian WarnsJun 14, 2023 - 05:48:26 PDT
Skipping a rate hike "could potentially be the least desirable" of three options available to the central bank, the top economist said Monday.
After a mixed picture from CPI data yesterday (headline down big, core still sticky, supercore rising), PPI was expected to continue to decline in data this morning for May, and it did bigly... Headline PPI fell 0.3% MoM in May (way more than the 0.1% drop expected), which dragged the YoY PPI to just 1.1%. That is the lowest since Dec 2020...
The Risk of a US Recession Is Rising. Here’s What That Means for States’ Credit OutlookJun 14, 2023 - 05:46:14 PDT
As economic conditions soften the state’s credit picture is less favorable, said Conning & Co. in its annual report analyzing the credit health of all 50 states released on Tuesday. The investment firm lowered the municipal sector’s outlook to “declining” from stable.
The Stock Rally Will End Soon, Recession Will Hit, and the Fed Won’t Hike Interest Rates AgainJun 14, 2023 - 05:44:29 PDT
The stock-market boom won't last, the economy will suffer a mild recession, and the Fed won't raise interest rates any higher, Jeremy Siegel says.
Prices at grocery stores and restaurants ticked up 0.2 percent last month from April, an increase after prices remained flat the two months before.
China is ramping up policy stimulus to boost its faltering economy, although soaring debt levels and concerns about financial stability mean the measures are likely to be limited compared with support packages in previous downturns.
With UK economic data this week suggesting that the Bank of England has a lot more to do to get inflation under control, the yield spread of sterling investment-grade bonds over their dollar peers has been widening fast.