Precious metals news

China's gold imports dropped significantly in July, falling 24% to 44.6 tons, the lowest level in over two years. This decline follows an even steeper 58% decrease in June. The reduced demand is attributed to record-high gold prices and a slowing Chinese economy, which have deterred consumers in the world's largest bullion market. The sustained decrease in Chinese gold purchases could potentially hinder further price gains in the global market. This trend reflects the impact of high prices and economic uncertainty on discretionary spending, particularly affecting jewelry sales, while investment in gold bars and coins remains relatively stable as a store of value.

Gold prices have reached new record highs, surpassing $2,528 an ounce, as investors eagerly anticipate Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The rally, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, has pushed gold's gains to over 22% this year. While some analysts predict further price increases due to factors like central bank purchases and haven demand, others caution that the current surge may impact demand in key markets like China. Traders are closely monitoring Powell's upcoming remarks and other economic indicators for insights into future monetary policy decisions that could affect gold's trajectory.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release preliminary benchmark revisions that could significantly reduce the estimated job growth for the year ending March 2024. Economists from major financial institutions predict a downward revision of between 360,000 to potentially 1 million jobs, which would be the largest adjustment in 15 years. This revision suggests that the labor market may have been cooling more rapidly and for a longer period than initially thought, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts. The news could impact Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole and shape the central bank's approach to balancing inflation control with maintaining full employment.

Citigroup reports a resurgence of the carry trade, but with a notable shift: hedge funds are now using US dollars instead of yen to fund investments in emerging markets. This change is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's recent rate hike, which have altered the traditional carry trade model. Hedge funds are increasingly bearish on the dollar and are using it to purchase emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Turkish lira. However, Citigroup anticipates this window for carry trades may be short-lived due to potential volatility surrounding the upcoming US presidential election.

Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, has indicated a shift in his stance on interest rates, suggesting that a rate cut in September is now a topic worthy of discussion. This change is primarily driven by concerns about a potentially weakening labor market, despite progress in controlling inflation. Kashkari emphasized that while the balance of risks has shifted, any potential rate cut would likely be limited to a quarter percentage point, given that layoffs remain low and unemployment claims don't indicate significant economic deterioration. This perspective aligns with recent comments from other Fed officials and reflects the changing economic landscape, which has led investors to adjust their expectations for the Fed's September meeting.

Gold prices have reached a historic milestone, with a standard 400-ounce gold bar now valued at over $1 million for the first time. This achievement occurred as the spot price of gold surpassed $2,500 per troy ounce, setting a new record high. While the exact value of gold bars can vary slightly based on their precise weight and purity, this unprecedented valuation underscores the precious metal's continued importance in the global financial landscape.

Gold prices have reached record highs, surpassing $2,560 an ounce, with a 20% increase this year. This rally is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and emerging markets diversifying their reserves away from the US dollar. Gold mining stocks have also benefited, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up nearly 25% this year. Analysts suggest the rally could continue, with some projecting potential targets of $2,800-$2,900 per ounce. Gold's performance has outpaced both stocks and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in recent months, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty.

The Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week will spotlight the economy as a key issue, with Vice President Kamala Harris set to be officially nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate. Harris's convention speech, largely prepared, is expected to focus on her vision for America's economic future. The event follows her recent release of a cost of living plan addressing housing, drug prices, and grocery costs. The convention will also serve as a platform for Democrats to contrast their economic policies with those of Republican nominee Donald Trump, particularly on issues like tariffs and healthcare costs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is drawing intense investor attention as markets seek clues about potential interest rate cuts. Unlike last year's focus on maintaining high rates to combat inflation, this year's symposium occurs amid signs of cooling inflation and a slowing job market. Investors are now speculating not if, but by how much, the Fed might cut rates in September. Powell's address on Friday is expected to provide insights into the Fed's monetary policy direction, balancing the need to control inflation with concerns about rising unemployment. The event, which began as a strategy to attract then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in 1982, has become a crucial platform for central bankers to communicate long-term policy messages.

Goldman Sachs has reduced its forecast for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 25% to 20%, citing recent positive economic data. This revision comes after strong retail sales figures and a decrease in jobless claims, which have alleviated concerns sparked by July's high unemployment rate. The bank's chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, noted that continued economic expansion could align the U.S. more closely with other G10 economies. Goldman Sachs maintains its prediction of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the possibility of a larger cut if the upcoming August jobs report disappoints.

Turkey's central bank reported a significant increase in its official reserves, reaching $147.9 billion by the end of July, marking a 3.5% rise from the previous month. This growth was primarily driven by a 7.5% increase in foreign currency reserves, which totaled $83.2 billion. Despite a slight 1.6% decrease in gold reserves to $57.2 billion, the overall increase in reserves demonstrates the bank's ongoing efforts to strengthen its financial position and stabilize the country's economy.

China's central bank has issued new gold import quotas to several banks after a two-month pause, signaling potential renewed demand despite record-high prices. This move comes as gold prices hit an all-time high of $2,500.99 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of U.S. monetary easing. While jewelry demand remains weak, investment interest is healthy. The resumption of import quotas could further boost gold prices if Chinese demand picks up, although current market indicators suggest subdued activity.

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium takes center stage this week, with investors closely watching for signals about future interest rate decisions from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bankers. Markets are anticipating potential rate cuts, but the timing and magnitude remain uncertain. The event coincides with the release of key economic data, including PMI surveys and inflation figures, which will further inform monetary policy decisions across major economies. Central bank actions in Asia and decisions from Sweden and Turkey will also be in focus, as global policymakers navigate the delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.

Gold prices reached a record high above $2,500 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Despite a slight pullback, analysts anticipate further price increases, with UBS projecting $2,600/oz by year-end. Investors are now focused on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech and the release of July's Fed meeting minutes for indications of potential rate cuts. The precious metal's 20% surge this year is attributed to rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions, and robust central bank purchases.

Iron ore prices are plummeting due to a steel industry crisis in China, while soybean stockpiles reach record highs. In the US, a hot summer is driving up natural gas demand. These trends, along with developments in nuclear power and Mexican oil production, are shaping global commodity markets this week.

Not only have these three gold miners outperformed the group, they are now becoming overvalued.  We must remember that gold mining stocks tend to trade in a cycle so it is important to know where they are in the current cycle...

While oil prices remain weak, U.S. petroleum inventories fall to five-year lows.  This divergent trend can't continue much longer.  Also, I was surprised to see such a large build in the SLV Silver inventories since June...

Gold briefly touched $2,500 on Friday – and some analysts say $3,000 gold is right around the corner.

Gold reached an unprecedented milestone, surpassing $2,500 per ounce for the first time on August 16, 2024. This historic surge was primarily driven by expectations of imminent interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, following disappointing US housing data. The precious metal's value has increased by over 20% in 2024, buoyed by a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, anticipated monetary policy shifts, and strong demand from central banks. Analysts predict that gold's performance will continue to be influenced by the Fed's rate decisions, ongoing global conflicts, and economic indicators, with some experts forecasting further price increases in the coming quarters.

The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act as it navigates the dual challenges of managing inflation and maintaining a robust job market. While there's consensus among Fed officials that interest rate cuts are imminent, with markets anticipating a quarter-point reduction in September, the central bank must carefully calibrate the timing, pace, and extent of these cuts. The Fed aims to mitigate inflation risks without triggering a rapid deterioration in employment. This risk-management approach requires weighing conflicting economic indicators and divergent views within the Federal Open Market Committee, as some members urge caution while others express concern about potential job market weakness.