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    Howard Marks: Now Is Not A Good Time To Be Investing
Jan 14, 2020 - 06:53:03 PST
"The odds are not, in my opinion, in the investor’s favor."
What happens in the stock market when price acceleration goes vertical and investor complacency reaches extreme levels? TTypically, bad things, according to Lance Roberts, chief investment strategist at RIA Advisors.
Higher prices for gasoline, health care and rent spurred another increase in the cost of living in December, capping off the biggest annual advance in inflation since 2011.
Arend Kapteyn, global head of economic research at UBS, said the first Fed rate cut could come in March.
A depressing consensus prevailed among economists at the recent American Economic Association annual meetings: the developed world is stuck with low growth, low inflation and low interest rates for years to come.
    Fed on Hold, but Will Financial Risks Matter?
Jan 14, 2020 - 05:14:42 PST
"We are going to want to let the economy run and run hot enough to where inflation starts to move and gets us to a place where we are comfortable that level is not a threat to expectations.”
    The Eurosystem Might Have a Fatal Flaw
Jan 14, 2020 - 05:00:05 PST
The European Central Bank & the central banks of the 19 member states, has a fatal flaw: the national central banks can go bankrupt. The 19 national central banks (NCBs) hold significant amounts of assets for their own risk...
Governing Council members will enter a weeklong quiet period on Thursday, before gathering on Jan. 22-23 to set interest rates, evaluate monetary stimulus and debate the strategy review.
Five years after Switzerland's central bank upended global currency markets by scrapping the Swiss franc's peg to the euro, it is under widening pressure to adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy.
The benchmark interest rate that the Fed focuses on controlling to implement monetary policy has moved closer to the lower bound of its target range, increasing the prospect that the central bank will adjust one of its associated tools later this month.
Which as a reminder is the bank that started QE4 in October by triggering the repo market crisis in September...
    BoE Urged to Find New Weapons to Fight Recession
Jan 14, 2020 - 04:39:30 PST
The new governor of the Bank of England and the chancellor need to take early action to ensure the central bank has weapons it can deploy when the next recession hits, warn economists.
Just two years ago, Prime Minister Modi was helming an economy expanding 8%, spurring optimism India was on a path to become a major global growth driver.Now, stagflation looms as...
"Our negative outlook for the euro area reflects most member states' limited buffers to react to a worsening external environment. The deteriorating global environment will weigh on growth in member states' open economies in 2020...
The Bank of England’s dovish shift in the past week has already rippled through markets, and now economists are starting to react too.
    US Foreign Policy, Oil and the Dollar
January 14, 2020
The war drums have quieted for the time being. But while the threat of a hot war seems to have diminished, economic warfare continues. President Trump announced another round of economic sanctions on Iran.
We have written extensively how about how the US weaponizes the dollar and uses it as a foreign policy tool. This is one of the reasons many central banks are buying gold. The flip side of that equation is also true. The US government uses the military to support the dollar - specifically by controlling oil resources.
A week ago, nearly $100 billion in short-term liquidity was added via the Federal Reserve Bank of New York offering cash in the repo market.
As a reminder, the repo market is the overnight market of repurchase agreements. This is where one sells an asset with an agreement to purchase it back at a slightly higher price the next day. In other words, very short term collateralized lending.
    Mr. Dines' Big 2020 Market Analysis
Jan 13, 2020 - 12:59:42 PST
Rich or poor, it’s good to own a lot of gold; and you can quote TDL on that.
Taken together, the moves have been seen as stimulus that while stealthier than the measures taken to pull the economy out of the financial crisis, nevertheless represent important backing that has been positive for the kind of risks that stocks embody.
Universal basic income has been a centerpiece of Democrat Andrew Yang’s presidential campaign, but the likes of Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman were fans in the past.