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Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 2.4%, falling to $2,354.10, marking the most substantial one-day decline in over a year as geopolitical tensions lessened and investors moved towards higher-risk assets like stocks. This shift in investment preference reflects a broader market reevaluation following a temporary peak where the front-month gold for April delivery reached a record high of $2,398.40 just last Friday. Ricardo Evangelista, a senior analyst at ActivTrades, noted that the easing of tensions in the Middle East is prompting a renewed focus on the resilience of the U.S. economy and ongoing inflation concerns.
Oil prices declined as the geopolitical risk premium associated with Middle East tensions began to diminish, with Brent crude sliding to near $86 a barrel after experiencing its most significant drop since early February last week. This trend coincides with a decrease in demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The market has stabilized somewhat after volatile trading last Friday, following Iran's minimization of Israel's retaliatory actions to its drone and missile strike. Meanwhile, the U.S. House has recently passed new sanctions targeting Iran's oil sector, with expectations that the Senate will soon follow suit. Additionally, the U.S. has approved more funding to support Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia.
During their first-quarter earnings calls, major Wall Street leaders, including JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon, and Citi's Jane Fraser, expressed caution about the U.S. economy. Despite suggesting potential drops in inflation and interest rates and a continued economic growth that could avoid a recession, they emphasized the serious threats posed by ongoing high inflation, elevated borrowing costs, the risk of a painful economic downturn, and the impact of international conflicts. BlackRock's Larry Fink and Blackstone's Steve Schwarzman also highlighted the prevailing sense of fear and uncertainty in the markets.
North American copper miners, including Freeport-McMoRan and Teck Resources, are anticipated to show a significant drop in their first-quarter earnings due to declining copper prices and ongoing high operational costs. Despite copper prices reaching multi-year highs last month following capacity expansion limits by major Chinese smelters, the average benchmark prices fell around 5% during the quarter. This decline is attributed to concerns over reduced demand from China, the top consumer of copper, and worries about rising interest rates affecting the market.
Copper prices are approaching a significant milestone of $10,000 per ton, reaching a new two-year high due to ongoing supply concerns and robust investor interest. The metal's price surge is supported by global manufacturing improvements in regions like the U.S. and China, despite potential setbacks from geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in monetary policy. Originally sparked by disruptions in major mining operations, the rally continues as the market anticipates a recovery in global manufacturing that could stabilize and further boost demand, especially with the seasonal recovery expected in China.
After a notably turbulent week in currency markets, the dollar experienced gains against the euro and yen, propelled by ongoing assessments of policy and geopolitical developments. As traders keep a close watch on the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy review, the currency teeters near a 34-year low against the dollar, sparking speculation about potential intervention. Meanwhile, despite a recent retreat from five-month highs, the dollar's trade-weighted index remains above 106, influenced by Federal Reserve officials’ comments and recent inflation data, which have tempered expectations for imminent rate cuts.
Despite the challenges posed by a faltering economy and a depreciating yuan, Chinese consumers and the central bank are increasingly investing in gold, driving the price to record highs above $2,400 an ounce. The allure of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has intensified amid global economic and geopolitical instability. Additionally, anticipations of interest rate cuts by central banks, which tend to reduce yields on bonds, are making gold an even more attractive investment. The weakening yuan, which has dropped about 5% against the US dollar over the past year, further exacerbates the cost for Chinese buyers, yet does not deter their demand.
Gold prices fell more than 2% to approximately $2,345 per ounce, reversing a five-week upward trend—the longest in over a year—as tensions in the Middle East began to subside. The decrease in geopolitical risk followed Iran's understated reaction to recent Israeli strikes, indicating a lower likelihood of immediate retaliation. This shift has reduced the market's risk premium, particularly as bullish sentiment on oil also receded on Monday, further reflecting easing tensions in the region. These developments come as traders eagerly anticipate upcoming U.S. economic data, which is expected to provide clearer insights into future monetary policy directions.
As fiscal imbalances persist, driven by coercive measures and artificial currency creation, the middle class faces erosion and purchasing power dwindles. But as the world hurtles towards a potential reckoning, the lingering question remains: can this precarious balance last, or are we teetering on the brink of a cataclysmic economic shift?
The Federal Reserve reported that 1,804 depository institutions, representing 20% of all eligible entities, accessed its emergency lending facility following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last March. According to the semi-annual Financial Stability Report, most of these institutions—95% in fact—were smaller entities with assets under $10 billion. The Bank Term Funding Program was established to counteract a liquidity crisis triggered by a sudden surge in withdrawals, which led to the failures of major banks like SVB and Signature Bank, necessitating a swift governmental intervention to stabilize the financial sector.
Despite conventional expectations, gold prices have remained resilient in the face of rising interest rates and a strengthening U.S. dollar, traditionally negative factors for the metal. Typically, higher interest rates draw capital towards bonds due to their attractive yields, diminishing gold's appeal as an investment. Simultaneously, a strong dollar usually suppresses gold prices, as it increases the metal's cost in other currencies, encouraging selling. However, current market trends show that gold has diverged from these historical patterns, maintaining its value despite these adversarial conditions.
    Costco Offers Gold, But Reselling Proves Challenging
Apr 19, 2024 - 16:02:26 EDT
Buying a gold bar at Costco is as easy as adding it to your cart, but selling it involves more effort and can be less lucrative. Adam Xi, a 33-year-old from Philadelphia, experienced this firsthand. After purchasing a gold bar for $2,000, he struggled to resell it without a loss, contacting five different dealers before settling for a price just $20 below market value at $1,960. Many are discovering that gold is not as liquid an asset as they hoped, facing challenges when they decide to liquidate their investments.
In a significant heist at Toronto's airport, a thief stole $14.5 million in gold bars and nearly $2 million in cash using fake documents to claim a shipment. The scheme, which unfolded last April, was later uncovered as an inside job possibly involving Air Canada employees. The discovery led to a yearlong investigation linking the culprits to an international arms-trafficking operation, which was eventually disrupted by Pennsylvania State Police.
A 70-year-old woman from Carlsbad was scammed out of more than $1 million in gold and other precious metals, according to the San Diego federal prosecutors. The scam started with a pop-up message on her computer claiming she had been hacked. Believing her bank account information was compromised, she was deceived by a group posing as tech support who convinced her to download malicious software. This group has been charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud.
U.S. banking regulators are reportedly revisiting a plan to restrict executive bonuses at large banks. This initiative, involving six agencies such as the FDIC and OCC, aims to enforce deferred compensations and enhance clawback measures for bonuses in case of financial losses. The proposal, which could be introduced soon, excludes the Federal Reserve from its drafters. This move comes amid longstanding debates over Wall Street executives' pay and the need for more rigorous financial accountability.
The time has come to cite the many reasons why Gold has risen, and why Gold will continue to launch to much higher levels. ZeroHedge explains 20 solid reasons for the gold breakout... and why silver will be next.
    The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here
April 19, 2024
With the AI boom and green energy push fueling fresh copper demand, and with copper mines aging and not enough projects to match demand with supply, the forecasted copper shortage has finally arrived in earnest. Coupled with persistently high inflation in the US, EU, and elsewhere, I predict the industrial metal will surpass its 2022 top to reach a new all-time high this year:
    U.S., Japan, and South Korea Unite to Stabilize Dollar
Apr 19, 2024 - 12:08:59 EDT
The Biden administration, along with Japan and South Korea, is taking coordinated action to curb the recent surge of the U.S. dollar against Asian currencies, which has been exacerbated by changing market expectations regarding U.S. interest rates. This collaborative effort was highlighted in a joint statement by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and her counterparts, following a trilateral meeting in Washington. They expressed a commitment to closely monitor and consult on foreign exchange market developments, especially after recent U.S. inflation data prompted a reassessment of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to significant gains for the dollar. The finance ministers also recognized the serious concerns of Japan and South Korea regarding the rapid depreciation of their currencies.
The psychology of inflation plays a significant role because it impacts individuals differently based on their personal circumstances. For homeowners with fixed mortgage rates and minimal debt, inflation may pose little threat to their financial stability. However, for renters, prospective homebuyers, or those needing to purchase big-ticket items or borrow money, inflation can be severely detrimental. This disparity in experiences contributes to widespread skepticism about official inflation figures, as people feel the impacts of inflation vary greatly from what is reported by the government.
    MetalsDaily – We need to talk about China...
Apr 19, 2024 - 11:43:09 EDT
In his latest article on MetalsDaily.com, Ross Norman highlights the significant purchasing trends on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), which offer a glimpse into China's unique perspective on gold. Unlike the prevailing global view, China exhibits a distinct cognitive bias favoring gold, a stance not mirrored by weaker demand in other regions at current price levels. This discrepancy may stem from what's known as "false consensus bias," where people mistakenly believe others share their views. Norman's analysis suggests that understanding China's distinct market behavior is crucial for interpreting global gold trends.