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Here We Go Again: When Bubbles Pop, Only the First Sellers Avoid DestructionApr 20, 2020 - 08:39:39 PDT
Bubbles always burst, and the confidence that "this isn't a bubble" and "the Fed has our back" are counter-indicators.
Germany is spending much more than countries like the United States, on a relative basis, to mitigate the economic impact from the coronavirus, a data study has shown.
Many mid-sized retailers do not qualify for government relief programs. The National Retail Federation wants more government aid in hopes of saving thousands of jobs during the coronavirus pandemic.
These Markets Could See the Sharpest Drop in Home Prices During PandemicApr 20, 2020 - 08:31:55 PDT
Both homebuyer and seller demand have weakened dramatically in the last month, as Americans hunker down to help stop the spread of the coronavirus. While some are still shopping online, doing virtual tours, the spring season was essentially over before it started. While sales are way down, home values may not suffer as much.
The European Central Bank will give banks ample time to return to normal capital and liquidity levels after the coronavirus crisis passes, the ECB's chief supervisor told Spanish newspaper El Confidencial. "We will have to decide on the path to return to the normal capital and liquidity levels...
...careening towards its deepest recession since the 70s...
Is the Extreme High in the Gold/Silver Ratio Setting Up For an Extreme Reversal?Apr 20, 2020 - 07:34:39 PDT
There are a few times in an investor’s life where, as Jim Rogers once put it, you see a pile of money sitting in a corner and you can go pick it up. In other words, an investment opportunity that’s not just obvious, but has a high reward-to-risk ratio.It may not have been expected by many investors, but the gold/silver ratio (gold price divided by the silver price) has stretched to never-before-seen levels. It’s soared to not just a generational high, but a historic high. As in 5,000 years of history.
"I'm a little bit more worried than what the consensus of economists out there is right now," Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.
U.S. Democrats and Republicans were near agreement on Monday for extra money to help small businesses hurt by the coronavirus pandemic, a top Republican lawmaker said, but he accused Democrats of holding up a deal.
A lot of people still seem to think the economy will fire right back up and things will snap right back to normal when the government-imposed coronavirus lockdowns end. I don't believe we're going back to normal for a number of reasons - primarily because things weren't normal before coronavirus. The economy was a big, fat, ugly bubble. Coronavirus was a pin that popped the bubble.But even if things were normal before the pandemic, the economy still wouldn't just fire back up and restart on a dime.
We continue to believe Q2 and Q3 of 2020 will be much weaker than investors are expecting and we believe the US Fed has lulled many investors into believing a “deep V bottom” is the most likely outcome.
The U.S. bankruptcy system risks being overwhelmed by a wave of previously healthy companies hurt by the coronavirus seeking relief all at once in the months ahead.
Here’s what investors don’t know: How many people will lose their jobs. How far profits will fall. How deep the recession will be. The only thing they’re sure of is that the government has pumped $4 trillion into the economy and is hell-bent on seeing it work.
There seems to be growing optimism that we're nearing the end of the coronavirus lockdown. Stocks have rallied despite dismal economic numbers. But Peter Schiff says there are some important questions nobody is asking, especially when it comes to the insane Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Stock futures were following a decline in U.S. oil prices, which raise concerns about how deep the economic slowdown will be this quarter and also hit the prices of energy stocks.
The supposed greatest economy in US history actually was a walking sick man, made comfortable with painkillers, and looking far better than he felt—yet ultimately fragile and infirm. The coronavirus pandemic simply exposed the underlying sickness of the US economy. If anything, the crash was overdue.
"The recent news flow suggests the acceleration phase of the default cycle has officially began" - Goldman Sachs
Japan Proves How Laughable The Idea That Central Banks Can Support Markets IsApr 20, 2020 - 04:42:58 PDT
Don’t fight the Fed nor the Bank of Japan, not when they can buy theoretically unlimited amounts.
The May contract of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell to $12.43 a barrel on Monday, down more than 31%. That’s its lowest level since March 4, 1999.
Futures Plunge As WTI Crashes Most On Record, Tumbling To $11 Per BarrelApr 20, 2020 - 04:38:17 PDT
Oil prices crashed the most on record with the May WTI futures contract hitting its lowest level since 1999, plunging as low as $11 or down 38%, as nobody wants to take actual physical storage amid widespread fears crude storage will soon be full;