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Amid a grim global economic downturn, Møller-Maersk, a shipping behemoth, is taking drastic action by axing 10,000 jobs in response to plummeting demand. The Danish giant, once thriving, has already eradicated 6,500 positions and plans to ruthlessly cut 3,500 more by 2024. This stark 10% workforce reduction is a desperate measure to counter collapsing prices and rampant overcapacity. It's a bleak indicator of the post-pandemic "new normal" that's crippling global trade.
The Bank of Japan's continued loose monetary policy is creating serious global market imbalances, risking a sudden surge in volatility. Ignoring rising inflation and market cues to tighten policy, the BOJ's stance is primed to trigger a sharp yen rally and a destabilizing shake-up in asset prices worldwide. Japan's delay in policy normalization may lead to abrupt, wide-reaching financial consequences.
Central banks globally are aggressively purchasing gold, with China leading the charge, reflecting a strategic move to lessen reliance on the U.S. dollar. Amid geopolitical tensions and diversification efforts, central bank gold acquisitions have surged by 14% this year, with China contributing 181 tonnes to the 800 tonnes total. This shift comes as nations respond to the economic weaponization of the dollar, exemplified by sanctions against Russia, prompting a wider trend of de-dollarization.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he's not confident interest rates are high enough to slay price inflation. He also said he's not confident they aren't. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey wonders out loud why we should have any confidence if Powell doesn't. Along the way, he breaks down the November Fed meeting and talks about the "colossal" year for central bank gold buying.
When a country peaks in its liquid fuel demand, this typically points to the inevitable plateau in "Real Economic Growth."  This seems to be true for Americans, as U.S. gasoline and diesel consumption per capita peaked more than 15 years ago... regardless of the massive money printing by the U.S. Government...
Public Law 93-373, an unremarkable one-page bill, revolutionized U.S. financial policy by allowing private gold ownership after four decades, reflecting a stark transformation from Roosevelt's 1933 gold ban. With gold prices escalating from $35 to $850 per ounce between the Nixon Shock and 1980, the law acknowledged gold's crucial role as a safeguard against economic instability. Today, with a $33.7 trillion national debt and potential fiscal crises looming, gold's status as a financial bastion endures, hinting that its current valuation may just be the floor for future appreciation.
    Red or Blue: Who Really Wins the Gold Race?
Nov 2, 2023 - 11:45:07 PDT
Political parties and precious metals – is there any correlation between election cycles and metals prices?
The Fed's pause on interest rate hikes signals uncertainty, with all eyes on forthcoming economic data. Should upcoming reports indicate a sustained drop in inflation and a slowdown in the robust US economy, the door opens for discussions on rate cuts, a scenario that could significantly undermine the Dollar's strength.
Target CEO Brian Cornell reports that consumers are cutting back on spending across the board, including essentials like groceries. The retailer has seen a consistent decrease in sales of non-essential items for seven quarters straight, and now even the quantity of food items sold is dropping. Despite some economists backpedaling on recession predictions and signs of inflation slowing, Target is bracing for a tough holiday season, having already lowered its sales and profit forecasts earlier in the year.
Janet Yellen's Treasury is set to auction off $1.6 trillion in debt, with surging interest rates poised to hike the government's annual interest bill to an unsustainable $1.7 trillion. This massive outflow, siphoning off 6% of US GDP, could cripple economic growth and hamper effective monetary policy. As the US pivots to longer-term debt issuance, liquidity concerns mount, overshadowing the Fed's rate decisions and compounding risks in an already fragile global financial system. With traditional debt buyers like China and Japan potentially stepping back, the burden of absorbing this debt remains a looming question.
    Fed Is Not Thinking About Rate Cuts Right Now At All?
Nov 2, 2023 - 09:04:57 PDT
Wolf Richter at Wolf Street views the Fed's recent meeting as another "Hawkish Hold," signaling that rate hikes could still be on the table, while the end of hikes seems to lead to a 'higher for longer' plateau. Despite Powell's assertion that the Fed isn't considering rate cuts, the general stance from the meeting suggests a hold bias rather than a tightening bias. The stock market, after initial uncertainty, seems to have interpreted this as signaling the end of hikes. Upcoming jobs reports and economic data will be crucial in shaping the Fed's next moves, with recent ISM figures hinting at a potential cooling in the economy. I think hikes are done.
Markets reacted positively to Jerome Powell's comments, as he suggested that rising bond yields could reduce the need for further rate hikes. This led to a drop in Treasury yields, easing financial strain but also potentially leading to looser financial conditions than the Fed desires, which could undermine their efforts to combat inflation. Powell's message has raised concerns that it might prematurely signal the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, creating a challenging situation for the central bank.
    The future for fiat
November 2, 2023
The day of reckoning for unproductive credit is in sight. With G7 national finances spiralling out of control, debt traps are being sprung on all of them, with the sole exception of Germany.
Malinvestments of the last fifty years are being exposed by the rise in interest rates, increases which are driven by a combination of declining faith in the value of major currencies and contracting bank credit. The rise in interest rates is becoming unstoppable.
Do not be surprised to see a US Government deficit exceeding $3 trillion this fiscal year, half of which will be interest payments. And in the run up to a presidential election, there’s every sign of deficit spending increasing even further.
We now face America and her allies being dragged into another expensive conflict in the Middle East, likely to drive oil and natural gas prices higher; far higher if Iran becomes a target. With the Muslim world united against western imperialism more than ever before, do not discount th...
Gold prices edged higher as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields fell, fueling investor optimism that the Federal Reserve might pause interest rate hikes. Spot gold rose 0.3% and U.S. gold futures were up 0.5%, benefiting from a weaker dollar and lower bond yields that increase the metal's allure. With the Fed's decision to maintain rates and traders betting on a continued pause, gold remains attractive in the face of economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
U.S. jobless claims rose unexpectedly to a two-month high of 217,000, exceeding estimates and indicating potential instability in the job market. Continuing claims worsened, surpassing 1.8 million for the first time since April, hinting at a more concerning upward trend in ongoing unemployment. This rise in continuing claims suggests economic challenges may be intensifying.
    THE BIGGEST RED FLAG I've Seen For The Economy So Far
Nov 2, 2023 - 06:29:08 PDT
Ronnie Stoeferle Shares a MINDBLOWING Chart With Mike
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon suggests the Federal Reserve might not be done raising interest rates, potentially by another 75 basis points, given persistent inflation. Speaking after the Fed's rate hold decision, he acknowledges the possibility of stickier inflation and advises businesses to prepare for this tougher scenario. Dimon's comments reflect his ongoing concerns about the risks of higher rates and the effects of quantitative tightening.
    Wall Street Eyes Big Profits From War
Nov 2, 2023 - 06:20:17 PDT
UN reports suggest potential war crimes in the Israel-Gaza conflict, with a focus on the human toll. In contrast, Wall Street eyes profit, with analysts discussing financial gains from the conflict, raising ethical concerns given the contradiction with their public human rights commitments. The UN's call for accountability and adherence to human rights principles in business practices stands at odds with the observed financial opportunism amid the violence.
    CEOs Rank Geopolitics as Primary Source of Worry
Nov 2, 2023 - 06:08:35 PDT
Global leaders warn of a perilous geopolitical landscape, the most hazardous in decades. Financial forecasts are clouded by the risk of conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East, and the wide-ranging impacts of climate crises and pandemics. Mark Wiseman views it as a uniquely challenging investment climate. Amidst this, speculation about inflation and interest rates pales in comparison to the broader uncertainties that could culminate in a conflict as severe as World War III.
    Risk of War Threatens a ‘Fragile’ World Economy
Nov 2, 2023 - 06:05:07 PDT
Escalating tensions in Israel and Gaza threaten to spark a wider conflict, undermining global economic stability. This comes amid already strained conditions from past crises, with the world grappling with fragile growth and potential spikes in energy and food costs. Increasing debt, stagnant trade, and higher interest rates raise the specter of defaults, while US-China tensions impede global cooperation. The human cost mounts as the risk of disrupted oil supplies stokes fears of stagflation, posing serious risks to the worldwide economy.