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Europe’s largest economy will contract less this year than previously expected, the lender said after one of its regular reviews. At the same time, “the outlook is highly uncertain, and risks are tilted to the downside.”
    Unemployment Trends: How Many Layoffs are Temporary?
Nov 18, 2020 - 08:59:42 PST
Let's take a look at how the BLS classifies the unemployed.
At least a Half Billion in PPP Loans Won't Be Repaid
My 13 whiplash-charts by retailer category.
    Hot Mortgage Market Is the Fed’s House of Cards
Nov 18, 2020 - 08:25:05 PST
When the definitive story is written about U.S. financial markets during the coronavirus pandemic of 2020, expect America’s housing market to play a starring role.
Howard Marks, the dean of distressed-debt investing who turned bullish within days of the sector’s 2020 low, is back to a cautious stance now that the ensuing rally has whittled attractive targets down to pre-pandemic levels.“When the level of optimism is high, there is usually more room for disappointment,”
Job losses and business closures loom as more cities and states once again shut down their hospitality industries.
    Not All Government Spending is Stimulus
Nov 18, 2020 - 08:11:20 PST
"Relief spending would be a much-needed blessing for many Americans. But paying people not to work does not stimulate the economy." ~ Thomas L. Hogan
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon criticized lawmakers for a months-long deadlock over a second round of coronavirus relief to help unemployed Americans and struggling businesses.
Auditors now say the military may be able to pass an audit before the end of the next decade, so at least that's something.
By lowering the “travel rule” threshold to $250, the government could access more of our financial data.
    Why Inflation Could Be on the Way Back
Nov 18, 2020 - 07:35:20 PST
Are we about to enter a new era of surprisingly high inflation, rather than below target inflation to which we are accustomed? Many reject this point of view. But the boy who cried wolf was right last time. A book which has just come out cries wolf with insistence. He indicates in particular that, because…
Gold "is likely to derive strength from a weaker dollar in the near term until more news on the vaccine front is revealed".
"It will end in tears at some point, maybe through political revolution or perhaps the collapse of fiat currency..."
...if we build it, they will come?
Even with such severe central bank and government policy responses to the pandemic in the developed world so far, households and real economies are being squeezed financially.
    Euro Zone Inflation Confirmed Negative in October
Nov 18, 2020 - 05:38:45 PST
Euro zone annual inflation was negative for a third consecutive month in October, matching a four-year low, as energy prices were around 8% lower than a year earlier.
The discovery of two seemingly effective vaccines has raised hopes that the world will soon return to normal.
A whole range of pandemic aid programs are set to expire in the new year, leaving millions of Americans without the government support that’s helped keep them afloat -- and threatening to hold back a rebounding economy.
European Central Bank policy makers are trying to persuade investors not to focus too much on the size of their next dose of monetary stimulus, hoping they will instead look at its design.