Precious metals news

With most Economists and the Fed suggesting continued growth next year, one important indicator suggests quite the opposite.  Unfortunately, it seems that the U.S. Economy enjoyed its "Soft Landing" this year and is setting up for a Deep Recession in 2024...

Gold prices in 2023 have witnessed a significant 12% gain, a notable shift from the stagnant performance in 2022. This rise mirrors broader risk themes in the market, paralleling trends in stocks with a rally that persisted through the year, despite some pullbacks. As 2024 approaches, the focus shifts to the Federal Reserve's potential policy changes, especially in the context of the U.S. election year, which may induce further volatility in the gold market. The turning point for this bullish trend in gold occurred in Q4 of 2022, coinciding with the S&P 500 hitting a three-year low and market anticipation of the Federal Reserve easing its aggressive rate hikes. This period saw gold bouncing back from around $1650, fueled by speculation of policy changes. The optimism was reinforced following the December FOMC rate decision, where Jerome Powell hinted at possible rate cuts. Despite some retractions from other Fed members, gold's bullish movement remains evident, with the weekly chart highlighting its impac...

In a landmark event, the Bank of China's Shanghai branch has completed the first-ever cross-border precious metal transaction using the digital yuan, or e-CNY. On December 20, a 100 million yuan (approximately $14 million) settlement was made for a gold purchase through the Shanghai Financial Exchange International Board. This significant move not only enhances Shanghai's role in the global trade market but also aligns with China's strategy to promote its digital currency in international trade. The Bank of China Shanghai, a frontrunner in e-CNY pilot projects, has also been involved in importing iron ore using the digital currency. With President Xi Jinping's endorsement, the digital yuan is gaining international traction, evidenced by partnerships with foreign banks and its acceptance in countries like Singapore and the United Arab Emirates. This development signals a potential shift in the dynamics of global trade and currency usage.

Fitch Ratings anticipates a surge in home prices following a predicted Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2024. Despite the central bank's expected reduction of 75 basis points, the housing market, with 88% of metro areas overvalued, might offer limited relief. Home prices are projected to increase by 0%-3% in 2024 and by an additional 2%-4% in 2025. This rise could further strain affordability, especially for first-time and entry-level buyers, thereby potentially dampening demand. The overvaluation of homes has also intensified, with a 9.4% overvaluation in the second quarter of this year, up from 7.8% at the end of 2022. However, this view isn't universal; for example, Realtor.com predicts a decrease in home prices by 1.7% in 2024, citing lower mortgage rates and decreased buyer urgency.

2023 has been a challenging year for many Americans like Kyle Connolly, a newly single parent who faced job loss and rising living costs. This personal struggle mirrors a broader economic sentiment, despite ostensibly strong economic indicators. Inflation has significantly impacted everyday expenses, forcing people like Connolly to cut back on simple pleasures and rethink their lifestyles. This shift is visible in her Florida community, where luxury vehicles and leisure activities have become less common. While economists point to a stabilizing inflation rate and a robust labor market, the consumer sentiment remains low.

A recent survey conducted by Business Insider, in collaboration with YouGov, reveals a surprising financial struggle among Generation X. Despite the widespread focus on other generations, it's Gen X, aged between 43 to 58, who are facing significant financial insecurity. The survey, which included over 1,800 Americans across five generations, found that half of Gen Xers do not feel financially secure, a rate higher than their younger and older peers. This puts them at a unique disadvantage in the current economic landscape, overshadowed by the financial challenges and successes of other generations.

Two days before Christmas in 1923, Woodrow Wilson gave the United States a Christmas gift that keeps taking. On that day, he signed the Federal Reserve Act into law, creating the US central bank.
Since that inauspicious day, the US dollar has lost 96% of its value.

What's going on with US banks?
Over the last month, loans outstanding in the Federal Reserve bank bailout program increased by $17.24 billion. It was the second month we've seen borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) surge. And the pace of borrowing is increasing.

Bills filed in Florida and Oklahoma for the 2024 legislative session would create state precious metals bullion depositories. State-run bullion depositories would not only create a place to store precious metals; they could also encourage the use of sound money in those states and set the stage to undermine the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money.

If history is any indication, January will be a good month for gold.
According to analysis by the World Gold Council, gold tends to perform well in the first month of the year.

What's the Future of Global Energy??  I sat down with Jesse Day for the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and discussed energy with Brian Gitt.  While Brian believes the world has a tremendous amount of oil reserves remaining, I believe this is vastly overstated...

Would you rather have silver and gold? Or would you rather have peppermint?
You might be under the impression Yukon Cornelius of Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer fame was after riches of silver and gold.
He wasn't.
I mean, I hate to mess with your Christmas memories, but facts are facts.

Commerzbank's latest analysis suggests that the price of silver, currently at around $24 and consistent with its level at the beginning of the year, is poised for a significant increase. The bank forecasts a rise in silver prices to $30 by the end of 2024, driven by growing industrial demand, particularly in "green" sectors. This prediction comes after the Silver Institute's recent upward revision of industrial demand for silver. Additionally, Metals Focus anticipates a continued deficit in the silver market.

Explore the critical concept of the velocity of money and its historical significance.

Mike Maloney has an uncanny ability to foresee major financial shifts. Take a look at some of his top insights of the past year.

A Wall Street veteran warns that American households, with historically high equity holdings, could face "seven lean years" of stock market returns. According to Joseph Lavorgna, the U.S. household equity share of total financial assets stood at 36.3% in the third quarter, down from a record 40.5% but still notably high. This elevated equity exposure is significant because historically, high percentages of equities in investment portfolios have been associated with below-average future stock returns.

The concept of the 'January effect' in gold pricing, akin to the well-known stock market trend where prices rise early in the year, has been a topic of interest for investors. Gold tends to exhibit strong performance in January as well as late summer, with the January effect being statistically more significant. Since 1971, gold has averaged a 1.79% return in January, nearly triple its long-term monthly average, and has shown positive January returns about 60% of the time, increasing to nearly 70% since 2000. This trend may be attributed to factors like portfolio rebalancing, seasonal dips in real yields, and gold re-stocking in East Asia before the lunar New Year. However, it's important to note that gold prices do not always rise in January...

The Bank of China's Shanghai branch has successfully executed its first cross-border settlement using China's digital currency, the e-CNY, for a gold transaction worth 100 million yuan ($14 million) through the Shanghai Financial Exchange International Board. This significant move underscores the branch's active role in the pilot tests and application of the digital yuan, having previously utilized it for iron ore imports and collaborating with international banks like France's BNP Paribas to enhance its global usage. China's e-CNY is one of the most advanced central bank digital currency (CBDC) initiatives globally, with an initial domestic focus gradually expanding to cross-border trials, including in Hong Kong.

Despite record highs in gold and frozen orange-juice prices, 2023 proved challenging for the broader commodities market. Key commodities indexes, including the S&P GSCI and the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are poised to register their largest annual losses in five years, primarily due to declines in natural gas, coal, and grains. The S&P GSCI traded 10% lower year to date, with its energy sector experiencing the most significant drop of 12%. Similarly, the Bloomberg Commodity Index saw a 12% decline, with its energy subindex falling by 24%. These indexes are on track for their steepest yearly percentage drops since 2018.

Global retailers, especially those dealing in apparel, household items, and white goods, are facing heightened disruption risks due to increased attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni militants in the lower Red Sea region. These attacks pose a significant threat to the vital Suez Canal trade route, prompting some shipping companies to contemplate longer alternative routes, such as navigating around the Horn of Africa. This change in shipping strategy could result in extended delivery times and higher prices for various goods, impacting the global supply chain.