Precious metals news

Gold's performance in 2023 defied expectations by thriving amidst global economic challenges. This resilience was fueled by a mix of market volatility, geopolitical unrest, and shifts in US policies. In 2024, gold's appeal is expected to surge due to three key factors. Firstly, a shift towards a more dovish US monetary policy, coupled with a slowdown in US economic growth and stabilizing inflation, bodes well for gold. Secondly, a weakening US dollar, as the global economy gains on the US and central banks continue their gold-buying spree, further supports gold's prospects. Finally, gold benefits from bullish investor sentiment, driven by ongoing risks and uncertainties.

Now that the 2024 Happy New Year celebrations are behind us, let's look at some good news.  Global conventional oil discoveries hit an ALL-TIME Record low in 2023.  Even though global exploration spending increased last year, discoveries fell to the lowest level in the past 100 years...

Happy New Year from me and everybody at SchiffGold! Here's hoping it is an absolutely fantastic year.
So, have you made any New Year's resolutions?

While the market applauds record U.S. oil production surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia, how sustainable is this supply?  Also, what is happening with the critical U.S. diesel supply and inventories?  And how would a recession impact U.S. fuel consumption in 2024...

On the final trading day, metal prices showed mixed results, with copper and aluminum experiencing slight increases, while gold slightly decreased. Despite this, gold is poised to conclude the year with a 14% gain, marking a strong performance amidst a volatile year for metals. Copper is expected to finish the year over 3% higher, and aluminum approximately unchanged.

On the final trading day, metal prices showed mixed results, with copper and aluminum experiencing slight increases, while gold slightly decreased. Despite this, gold is poised to conclude the year with a 14% gain, marking a strong performance amidst a volatile year for metals. Copper is expected to finish the year over 3% higher, and aluminum approximately unchanged.

The global economy in 2024 will be shaped by US interest rates, oil prices, and China's economic performance. Despite a more resilient global economy in 2023 than expected, with inflation falling without significant unemployment increases, challenges remain. The OECD forecasts a slowdown in global output in 2024 due to high interest rates curbing inflation and economic activity, predicting a global GDP growth of 2.7%, slightly lower than 2023's 2.9%. Growth is not expected to rise until 2025. The outlook reflects the long-term impacts of COVID-19 and the Ukraine conflict on energy prices. While economic predictions can be uncertain, key factors to watch include the interrelation of major macroeconomic variables like interest rates, oil prices, and China's economy.

The widely predicted 2023 recession didn't occur, defying forecasts including those from Federal Reserve economists. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the unexpected robust economic performance. This resilience was attributed to the unique challenges posed by the pandemic and the substantial $5 trillion fiscal stimulus. Forecasting difficulties arose from the lack of historical parallels. A key factor was the resilient U.S. consumer, who, buoyed by pandemic-era savings and government support, spent more than anticipated. Revised estimates showed that consumers were in a stronger financial position than previously thought, contributing to higher spending power and averting the anticipated downturn.

India's gold market sees subdued demand in Q4 due to high prices, influenced by geopolitical risks, rate cut expectations, and a strong USD. Despite the RBI halting gold purchases and soft domestic demand causing a local discount, gold ETFs attracted sustained inflows, with November seeing US$47 million. High prices are expected to dampen physical gold demand, except for bridal jewelry. Investment demand may rise due to global uncertainties and positive domestic economic growth. The LBMA Gold Price PM rose 11% since October, mirrored by Indian gold prices, while other currencies saw lesser increases due to their strength against the USD.

Gold traders flocked to jewelry stores in Vietnam amid volatile prices, with over 30 customers seen at a Saigon Jewelry Company store in Ho Chi Minh City. Prices fluctuated significantly, leading some to sell early out of decline fears. Mi Hong chain also experienced high traffic, though less than during the recent price peak. Vietnam's gold prices, which surged to a record high earlier in the week, have since dropped, causing uncertainty among buyers and sellers. In Hanoi, the Prime Minister's directive to align domestic with global rates spurred early morning sales, noting that local prices are about 30% higher than global rates.

We are entering the third and final phase of the precious metals bull market.

As 2023 ends, Shenzhen, traditionally known for technology, is rapidly gaining recognition as a new fashion hub in China, especially in jewelry. The city's large jewelry market experienced a significant increase in consumer interest and demand. Shenzhen hosted major fashion events like the Shenzhen Eyewear Fashion Week and the China International Brand Underwear Fair, attracting global fashion buyers and featuring top brands like Dior and Versace Home. This transformation into a fashion center is supported by its strong supply chain capabilities, evident in its diverse fashion sectors including high-fashion, luxury watches, and designer eyewear. Shenzhen's fashion industry is notably robust, with over 2,500 apparel companies and a 42% share in global watch production, highlighting its emerging status in the global fashion landscape.

Historical data from the World Gold Council indicates that gold typically fares well in January, with an average return of 1.79% since 1971 and positive gains in nearly 60% of Januaries since then. This trend strengthens in the 21st century, with gold rising in 70% of Januaries since 2000. Key factors contributing to this include yearly portfolio rebalancing, a seasonal dip in real yields, and increased demand for gold in East Asia prior to the Lunar New Year. However, the Council cautions that this trend is not absolute, noting years like 2021 and 2022 when gold didn't rise in January, often correlating with a strengthening US dollar. As 2024 approaches, the pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes and potential cuts could weaken the dollar, potentially setting up gold for another strong January performance.

In 2023, gold prices soared to new highs, bolstered by its status as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties. The metal’s demand rose as investors sought protection against inflation and currency devaluation, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market volatility. Despite some fluctuations, gold maintained an overall upward trend, reflecting a complex mix of central bank policies and global economic factors. Looking into 2024, gold continues to be viewed as a vital asset for hedging against financial risks and maintaining portfolio stability.

Sometimes one single solitary event or individual can characterize an entire year — be it an outbreak, economic downturn, or a political uprising. However, 2023 was marked by a confluence of varying influences. Economic concerns and rising prices dominated public discourse initially, before the conflict in Gaza shifted global focus. Amid these developments, the prospect of Donald Trump's presidential run was a constant presence. The New York Times has presented a series of ten graphs offering insight into the defining moments of 2023.

We've reached the end of another year. A new year is always a good time for reflection. And maybe even some resolutions. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the trajectory of gold as we enter the new year, explains an economic truth, offers some thoughts on New Year's resolutions, and makes a big announcement.

When I thought things couldn't get any more Bizarre, it seems that Doomberg now believes in the Energy Tooth Fairy.  Honestly, when I saw his Peak Cheap Oil Myth article, I fell off my chair.  This is my rebuttal to Doomberg, which I believe you will find quite interesting...

As of mid-November, only 60% of those with federal student loans due in October have made payments. The U.S. student loan debt exceeds $1.7 trillion, surpassing credit card and auto loan debts, with the average loan balance at graduation now around $30,000, up from $10,000 in the 1990s. Astra Taylor, co-founder of the Debt Collective, describes the situation where 40% of borrowers haven't paid as a "massive student debt strike."

Central banks globally are revising their economic forecasting methods after failing to anticipate the recent surge in inflation. The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England were caught off guard by the inflationary spike, triggered by the end of COVID-19 lockdowns and further exacerbated by the energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These unexpected developments led to the worst inflation in decades. In response, central banks have implemented significant rate increases and are now conducting thorough analyses to understand their forecasting shortcomings. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need to move beyond traditional models and consider a wider range of factors in future economic predictions.

Several emerging economies are exploring commodity trade without the U.S. dollar to decrease their dependence on it. Countries like Russia and Iran, hindered by U.S. sanctions, have increased oil sales in alternative currencies, finding willing buyers in nations such as China and India, often at reduced prices. While less critical for other major commodity exporters, countries like Brazil, the UAE, and even Saudi Arabia are making moves to enable non-dollar trades. Natasha Kaneva from JPMorgan Chase notes a significant shift, with approximately 20% of global oil now traded in currencies other than the dollar. The trend is highlighted by a rise in major non-dollar commodity contracts, growing from just two between 2015-2021 to twelve in 2023, primarily involving Russian and one UAE seller. These figures refer to physical commodity transactions, not futures trading in financial markets.