Precious metals news

Imagine a bedroom. It looks clean and safe, but there is a monster under the bed that nobody notices. As host Mike Maharrey explains in this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, that's basically the condition of the US banking system right now. It appears "sound," but a closer look reveals a financial crisis is still bubbling under the surface. He also talks about the recent run-up in the price of gold.

Today, the precious metals rally continued as the gold price closed $32 higher on the first trading day in December.  However, the GDX - Gold Miners ETF continues underperforming the gold price.  This is certainly odd because the Dow Jones Index surged nearly 300 more points...

Gold prices are on track for their second consecutive monthly gain, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Despite a minor drop, spot gold remains robust at around $2,035.53 per ounce, reflecting a 2.7% increase this month. U.S. gold futures also experienced a slight decline. The weakening dollar and lower Treasury yields contribute to gold's appeal. Market predictions indicate a possible rate cut by March, with gold prices expected to hit new highs in early 2024 due to the Fed's policy shift and a slowing economy. Silver also continues to rise, aligning with the positive trend in precious metals.

Inflation is often linked to rising prices due to factors like oil price hikes, influencing inflationary expectations. However, without an increase in the money supply, a general rise in prices cannot occur. Economists like Ben Bernanke focus on managing these expectations to control inflation. Milton Friedman argued that predictable inflation is less harmful than unexpected inflation. Nonetheless, the core issue is that inflation is fundamentally about the increase in the money supply, not just price rises, and its impact on the economy goes beyond just changing price levels.

The Office of Financial Research's Financial Stress Index, designed to foresee financial crises, has notably failed in its role. It didn't predict the financial upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic or the major U.S. bank failures that followed. This raises serious concerns about the reliability of the tools used by federal banking regulators and their grasp of the true state of the financial system. Despite its ineffectiveness, this index continues to be promoted, suggesting a possible disconnect between the perceived and actual financial stability in the U.S.

US government debt is rapidly approaching $34 trillion, with rising interest rates pushing the Treasury's borrowing costs higher. Inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes have led to interest rates on new Treasury securities reaching between 4.3% and 5.5%. The average interest rate on all government debt increased from 1.57% in February 2022 to 3.05% in October. Consequently, the government's interest payments have doubled since 2018, reaching $245 billion in Q3 2022. This escalation in debt servicing costs is placing a significant financial burden on the government, despite high tax revenues.

"Unrealized losses" at FDIC-insured commercial banks on securities, primarily Treasury securities and MBS, jumped by $126 billion to $684 billion at the end of Q3. This increase is linked to rising interest rates, which caused a significant drop in the market prices of these bonds. While these losses are considered temporary since banks will be paid face value at maturity, they can pose risks if they become permanent.

Where does Gold go from here? Join Mike Maloney and Alan Hibbard as they explore the 5 times in the last 50 years that gold's price has behaved just like it is today... and see where it usually goes next.

Cybercrime is on the rise in Europe, with Germany reporting record levels in 2021. Cybercriminals are increasingly using AI for sophisticated hacks and scams, including AI-written code for mass data theft and voice mimicry to bypass security systems. These criminals often recruit openly online and operate globally, making it challenging for law enforcement to track and prosecute them. For instance, German police discontinued an investigation into an €800,000 theft, citing difficulties in catching perpetrators based abroad. This highlights a broader issue of inadequate resources and international cooperation in tackling cybercrime.

The U.S. housing market is under strain, with pending home sales dropping 1.5% in October and down 6.6% year-over-year, marking a continuous negative trend for 23 months. This decline has driven the Pending Home Sales Index to a new record low. High mortgage rates and limited inventory are major challenges, affecting the market despite recent decreases in mortgage rates. This situation is impacting Americans' primary source of wealth and raising concerns about the ongoing financial pressure.

Last week's significant drop in non-seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims reversed the previous surge, with a minor increase in seasonally adjusted claims. Continuing claims, however, have risen above 1.9 million for the first time since November 2021. This rise in claims, attributed to seasonal distortions, is expected to further increase, according to Goldman Sachs. They predict an additional rise of around 125,000 claims by March, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market.

No one is talking about the US trade deficit in the current fiscal year, but it is likely to be another record, bringing with it new rounds of trade sanctions and protectionism.
In this article, I explain why the twin deficit hypothesis will apply, bearing in mind a likely budget deficit outturn of $3 trillion and a negative savings rate.
The extent to which politics demands protectionism will drive consumer prices higher than they otherwise would be. Put another way, the purchasing power of the dollar faces a renewed decline. A falling value for dollar credit as America enters a recession which promises to be deep is the worst outcome for policy makers faced with funding a soaring budget deficit. Other than tame buyers in offshore financial centres, major holders are turning sellers, not just of dollars, but US Treasuries as well.
The developing recession is global, and the days when a balance of payments for the dollar persisted despite large trade deficits are probabl...

Unrealized losses on securities held by US banks exploded by 22% in the third quarter.
Of course, unrealized losses don't really matter — until they do.
This is yet more evidence that the financial crisis that kicked off last March continues to bubble under the surface.

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Deflator, dropped to 3.5% year-over-year in October, its lowest since April 2021, from 3.7% in September. The headline PCE also decreased to 3.00% YoY, under the expected 3.1%. Both income and spending growth have slowed, with income growth at its slowest since December 2022 (4.5% YoY) and spending growth at its slowest since February 2021 (5.3% YoY). The savings rate saw a minor increase from a revised 3.7% to 3.8% in October. This data raises questions about whether consumers are beginning to cut back or simply reaching their credit limits.

ChatGPT A recent analysis using government data reveals that the typical American household now needs an extra $11,434 annually to maintain the same standard of living as in January 2021, before inflation hit 40-year highs. This financial burden persists despite a receding inflation rate and a strong economy indicated by low unemployment. The analysis, conducted by Republican members of the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee, highlights the ongoing struggle of many families amid economic growth. Rising living costs and inflation are key reasons behind Americans' economic pessimism.

Under President Biden, inflation remains high, with significant increases in food, used cars, and rent prices since 2020. Food prices rose by 25%, used cars by 35%, and rents by approximately 20%. A survey revealed that the average weekly cost of food for a four-person household increased from $238.32 in 2020 to $315.22 in 2023, a 32% jump. Food CPI peaked in August 2022 at 11.33% and has been decreasing as M2 Money growth slows down. Despite these trends, President Biden attributes high prices to factors other than his administration's policies.

The BEA revised third-quarter GDP growth from 4.9% to 5.2%, but the Gross Domestic Income (GDI) stands at only 1.5%, highlighting a significant discrepancy. This difference raises questions about the economy's strength, as GDI often receives less attention. Despite higher GDP figures, the lower GDI suggests potential economic weakness, possibly nearing recession. This contrasts with the more optimistic public perception of the economy based on GDP growth alone.

The percentage of yield curve inversions in the Treasury market, an indicator often used to predict economic recessions, has recently risen to nearly 90%, signaling a potential recession ahead. This increase comes after a brief period of decline. It's important to remember that just because a recession hasn't yet occurred doesn't mean the probability of it happening has diminished. The Treasury market's current state suggests that the risk of a recession remains high.

During a recent interview at the 2023 Precious Metals Summit Zurich event, Doom, Boom & Doom Report publisher Marc Faber says now is the time to buy gold, silver and platinum because inflation is here to stay.

Family offices, which manage investments for families typically with assets of $100 million or more, are increasingly investing in private markets rather than public stocks, even amidst market rallies. This shift highlights a significant change in their investment strategies. The focus is not just on private markets; these offices are also expanding their interests into alternative assets like real estate and commodities.