Precious metals news

Despite geopolitical tensions and a tumultuous start to the year, oil traders are increasingly investing in oil derivatives, pushing open interest in oil futures contracts to its highest level since March 2022. This surge, involving about 660 million barrels of oil derivatives, occurs despite crude oil prices remaining within a narrow $10-a-barrel range. The activity reflects not only seasonal trends of portfolio rebalancing but also concerns over political risks, such as the redirection of oil tankers around Africa due to conflicts in the Middle East, economic uncertainties including interest rate outlooks, and the potential for Chinese economic recovery.

Chinese government officials, led by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, are set to brief President Xi Jinping on the nation's stock market turmoil and planned policy measures, sparking hope among investors for a robust intervention to halt the market's decline. The briefing comes as Chinese stocks show signs of recovery, with significant gains in both major and small-cap indices. Despite the uncertainty of new support measures, the market's recent performance reflects growing expectations for decisive government action amid concerns over investor sentiment and consumer confidence as China approaches the Lunar New Year holiday.

The recent strike near a U.S. base in Syria resulted in the death of six members of a U.S.-allied militia, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by Washington in managing conflicts in the Middle East. This incident follows a series of U.S. airstrikes targeting Iran-allied militia sites, demonstrating the persistent tensions and the difficulties in containing regional hostilities. Despite these aggressive measures escalating, the U.S. is attempting to contain the conflict in the region.

Incrementum shares the Monthly Gold Compass February 2024 report.

January saw a record issuance of sovereign debt from emerging markets, led by countries like Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Hungary. However, this surge contrasts with stagnant flows into dedicated emerging market debt funds. Year-to-date, investors pulled about $1.6 billion out of dedicated emerging market hard-currency funds, according to Morgan Stanley data. That follows outflows of around $80 billion in 2022 and around half of that again last year.

Recent reports reveal a mixed bag for the bond market. While fears of a severe credit crunch have not materialized, high borrowing costs continue to challenge households. The Fed's rate hikes have pushed interest rates to two-decade highs, yet the economy shows remarkable resilience.

ExxonMobil & Chevron posted dismal financial results in its U.S. Oil & Gas Sector for Q4 2023.  While this was mainly due to impairment write-downs, the problem remains as shale economics continue to severely underperform the production from the international sector...

On Monday, the stock market experienced a downturn, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 274.30 points (0.71%) to 38,380.12, and the S&P 500 declining 0.32% to 4,942.81, retreating from its recent record high influenced by Big Tech gains. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, closing at 15,597.68. This downward movement was largely attributed to a significant rise in Treasury yields, fueled by concerns that the Federal Reserve might not implement rate cuts as previously anticipated.

Tavi Costa shares insights on smart capital allocation and the potential for silver to outperform.

A growing segment of Americans, particularly those in lower- and middle-income brackets, have depleted their savings and accrued substantial credit card debt due to persistent inflation over the last two years. This financial strain is exacerbated for those also juggling student loan repayments, raising concerns about worsening financial health. Credit card debt in the U.S. reached a record high of over $1.05 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, with expectations for further increases. Moody's has reported rising delinquency and charge-off rates, indicating a significant number of Americans are struggling to manage their debt, with rates surpassing those seen in 2019 and projected to continue rising.

The Yahoo Finance Chartbook reveals through 10 critical charts how the US economy has managed to avoid a recession, showcasing resilience against the backdrop of last year's recession forecasts. A pivotal indicator of this strength is the latest jobs report, which significantly exceeded expectations by adding 353,000 jobs, surpassing the anticipated 185,000. This report, along with analyses from leading Wall Street equity strategists and economists, highlights the underlying economic forces contributing to the economy's durability, even in the face of the highest interest rates seen in over two decades.

In a significant move towards de-dollarization, 20 nations have joined the Russian Payment System as part of the BRICS alliance's efforts to reduce reliance on the US dollar. This step aligns with the BRICS group's broader strategy to challenge Western financial dominance. Russia's System for Transmitting Financial Messages (SPFS), serving as an alternative to the SWIFT system, has garnered over 159 foreign participants, indicating a growing interest in diversifying away from traditional, dollar-centric financial systems. This development was highlighted in a recent announcement by Russia's Central Bank Governor, Elvira Nabiullina, emphasizing the BRICS' commitment to establishing a more independent global financial infrastructure.

Our nation's top financier had it correct 111 years ago: "Money is gold, and nothing else." J.P. Morgan was convinced of this. Still, government agencies have schemed over the centuries to dismantle the gold standard. 
Our guest commenter explains that, even though the Fed still holds gold, there was never a time when the dollar was less backed or less safe than now.

In 2023, Venezuela's central bank reported an 11.5% decline in its gold reserves, totaling 61 metric tons, a decrease reflected in the reserves' value, which dropped to $3.8 billion, $71 million less than the previous year. The central bank, without specifying causes for this decline in its announcement, noted the average gold price on its balance sheet for the latter half of 2023 was $1,959.62 per troy ounce, compared to $1,775.02 the year prior.

Gold's price charts are exhibiting bullish trends, with prices not only maintaining above the long-term moving average but also marking the highest weekly closing prices in recent history. This pattern, featuring a series of reversals over the last 3.5 years all above the long-term moving average—which itself is on an upward trend—indicates strong bullish momentum. Furthermore, a breakout consolidation phase suggests stability after recent gains, signaling investor confidence in gold's long-term value. Despite these positive technical indicators, investor sentiment has not aligned, as gold prices have been fluctuating between $2,000 and $2,070 per ounce for two months, creating a sense of uncertainty and frustration among investors.

UBS predicts a bullish future for gold and silver in 2024, projecting gold to reach $2,200 per ounce by year-end, driven by anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Joni Teves, UBS's precious metals strategist, highlights a potential easing by the Fed and a consequent weaker dollar as key catalysts for gold's rise. This expectation stems from gold's inverse relationship with interest rates; lower interest rates diminish the attractiveness of yield-bearing investments like bonds, thereby enhancing gold's appeal. Additionally, a softer dollar lowers gold's price for international buyers, further boosting demand. This forecast sets the stage for significant gains in the precious metals market, with silver expected to dramatically outperform.

In a revealing "60 Minutes" interview, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the precarious fiscal trajectory of the United States, stating that the nation's debt is expanding at a rate outpacing its economy, and it is unsustainable. The U.S. national debt reached a historic high of over $34 trillion in early January, escalating rapidly from the $33 trillion mark hit just three months prior. Amidst ongoing congressional delays in addressing spending deadlines due to disputes over government funding and the soaring national debt, temporary funding measures are in place until early March for various federal agencies, with broader government funding expiring shortly thereafter.

As China grapples with economic slowdown, its significant pivot towards gold has notably influenced global demand, setting new records. The easing of pandemic restrictions has not alleviated the economic stress from a sluggish manufacturing sector, high debt levels, and a property market crisis. This shift has positioned the People's Bank of China as the largest gold buyer last year, a move highlighted by the World Gold Council's recent report. Despite a 5% drop in global gold demand excluding OTC market trades, the inclusion of OTC transactions reveals an unprecedented total demand of 4,899 metric tonnes (about 5,400 tons) for the year, with the average gold price reaching a record high of US$1,940 per ounce, surpassing the previous year's figures.

Gold prices fell to a one-week low, influenced by strong U.S. employment figures and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which diminished expectations of early interest rate cuts. The anticipation of a more robust economic stance pushed the dollar and bond yields up, affecting gold's appeal. By midday GMT on Monday, spot gold had decreased by 0.6% to $2,025.99 per ounce, marking its lowest point since January 29. Similarly, U.S. gold futures saw a 0.6% drop to $2,042.60 per ounce.

The Central Bank of Egypt has announced the launch of $1 billion in one-year treasury bills, aimed at attracting investors amid a landscape of rising global interest rates. This follows a successful auction in January, underscoring Egypt's proactive approach to managing its fiscal responsibilities and attracting global investment.