Precious metals news

Oil is poised for its most significant weekly increase since October, driven by a combination of geopolitical conflicts and economic stimulus prospects. Despite a slight dip, Brent crude is trading near $82 a barrel, having broken out of its previous range and surpassed its key 200-day moving average for the first time since November. Contributing factors include heightened Middle East tensions, particularly US strikes on Iran-backed forces in Yemen and drone attacks on Russian refineries. Additionally, a larger-than-expected draw in US oil stockpiles and China's government stimulus measures to bolster its economy have supported the price increase. However, the potential for increased output from non-OPEC countries and slowing demand in major markets like India is making traders cautious. This complex mix of geopolitical risks and economic policies is currently the primary support for the ongoing surge in oil prices.

The Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge shows a notable slowdown in December 2023. The Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index indicated a monthly rise of just 0.2% and an annual increase of 2.9%, excluding volatile food and energy costs. This data, aligning with Dow Jones economists' predictions, marks a decrease from the 3.2% annual rate observed previously, reaching the lowest point since March 2021. Even when accounting for fluctuating food and energy prices, the overall inflation rate mirrored these trends, maintaining a steady 2.6% on a yearly basis. This deceleration in core inflation suggests a pivotal shift in the economic landscape, potentially impacting Federal Reserve policies and investor strategies in the gold and silver markets.

The Federal Reserve's emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), witnessed a surge in demand, reaching a record $167.8 billion in borrowing as of January 24. This spike, approximately $6.3 billion higher than the previous week, came just before the Fed raised the program’s interest rate to prevent financial institutions from exploiting its favorable terms for arbitrage. Initially, the BTFP's borrowing rate of around 4.88% was significantly lower than the rate for parking reserves at the Fed, leading to a risk-free arbitrage opportunity for institutions. However, this loophole was closed with the Fed's decision to align the BTFP borrowing rate with that of reserve balances, effectively ending the advantageous trade.

The Federal Reserve's emergency lending program, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), witnessed a surge in demand, reaching a record $167.8 billion in borrowing as of January 24. This spike, approximately $6.3 billion higher than the previous week, came just before the Fed raised the program’s interest rate to prevent financial institutions from exploiting its favorable terms for arbitrage. Initially, the BTFP's borrowing rate of around 4.88% was significantly lower than the rate for parking reserves at the Fed, leading to a risk-free arbitrage opportunity for institutions. However, this loophole was closed with the Fed's decision to align the BTFP borrowing rate with that of reserve balances, effectively ending the advantageous trade.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has resisted market pressures for swift interest rate cuts, maintaining a cautious monetary policy approach despite Europe's faltering economy and market anticipation for more affordable credit to stimulate business and stock market activities. ECB President Christine Lagarde, affirming the decision to keep the benchmark rate at a high 4%, stated that discussions about rate reductions are premature. While markets expected a rate cut as early as April, Lagarde emphasized that any future decisions will be based on the latest economic data rather than a fixed timetable, although she hinted at a possible cut in the summer.

It is truly amazing the amount of U.S. Treasuries that were "Retired & Reissued" last year.  It's even worse when we compare it to the annual amount before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.  Also, why did the U.S. M2 Money Supply contract since 2022... Fed QT?  Nope...

Many people think the Hunt Brothers were responsible for manipulating gold. But the truth is, they were framed...

Bill Gross, renowned as the "Bond King" and a billionaire co-founder of Pimco, expressed significant concerns about the current state of the stock market and the broader U.S. economy. Highlighting overextended stock valuations, he warned of a potential major recession if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates this year. Gross pointed out the incongruity of the S&P 500's record highs, given a price-to-earnings ratio around 19 and a real interest rate of 1.8%. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, from nearly zero to over 5% since early 2022 to tackle inflation, have not led to a material decrease in stock valuations. This situation, Gross argues, risks a debt spiral and necessitates a shift towards safer assets, potentially impacting investments in stocks versus traditional safe havens like bonds, gold, and silver.

A Yahoo Finance article revealed a significant decline in consumer confidence among American families earning under $100,000. Despite the inflation rate dropping to 3.4% in December 2023 from a peak of 7.2% in December 2021, high interest rates have escalated the cost of mortgages, credit card debt, car loans, and other expenses. The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, peaking at 5.25-5.5%, have intensified financial burdens. Although average hourly earnings rose by 15% from December 2020 to December 2023, inflation outpaced wage growth, affecting the ability of many to afford necessities​

After a delicate dance of interest rate increases, Jerome Powell has declared victory on inflation and says to expect looser monetary policy this year. But with junk bond spreads not widening nearly as much as one would expect during an era of economic tightening, you’ve got to wonder if money is still actually looser than the Fed’s last round of hikes would lead you to believe. 

Ron Paul criticizes the Federal Reserve's policies for exacerbating income inequality and inflation. He argues that the Fed's role in manipulating the market disproportionately benefits the wealthy, leading to a decrease in purchasing power for middle- and working-class Americans. Paul calls for an end to the Fed and government programs that favor crony capitalism, suggesting a return to free market principles​

The four largest U.S. banks have reported a significant increase in credit card expenditures in 2023, continuing an upward trajectory that began in 2020. Notably, JPMorgan Chase observed a 9% increase in credit card spending, reaching $1.2 trillion. This trend is mirrored at other major banks like Wells Fargo, with a 15% rise. More concerning is the growing trend of delayed repayments, as indicated by a 14% jump in unpaid balances at JPMorgan and a 9% increase at Bank of America. These patterns, coupled with rising delinquency rates since 2021, signal potential economic pressures and the need for prudent financial strategies in the years ahead.

In the evolving landscape of wealth preservation, Bitcoin emerges as a novel alternative alongside traditional assets like gold and silver. While these precious metals have long been the cornerstone for securing wealth, the advent of digital currencies offers a modern choice. Post-World War II saw the transition of global currencies from a gold standard to fiat systems, leading to debates about the stability of government-issued currencies. Bitcoin, operating independently of government and central bank control and with a capped supply, presents itself as an additional option for those seeking to diversify their safe-haven assets. This development reflects an expanding array of choices for investors in preserving their wealth.

Gain insights into the complexities of the current real estate landscape and the potential consequences for both investors and the broader economy.

Oil prices have reached an eight-week high, driven by a significant drop in U.S. stockpiles and China's introduction of additional economic stimulus. West Texas Intermediate crude surpassed $76 a barrel, marking the highest level since early December. The U.S. witnessed its largest weekly decline in total oil stockpiles since 2016, with crude inventories dropping by over 9 million barrels. This reduction, coupled with China's recent decision to cut the reserve-requirement ratio for banks, signals a potential boost in energy consumption from the world's largest crude importer. Analysts are closely monitoring the situation, noting that geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and potential further support measures from China could continue to impact oil markets significantly. While Citigroup Inc. cautions that a spike to $90 a barrel is not their main expectation, they acknowledge it as a possibility if current tensions escalate.

In a strategic move to fortify their economies, the BRICS countries - led by China, Russia, and India - have significantly ramped up their gold reserves, becoming the top gold buyers in 2023. According to the World Gold Council, China alone added a staggering 225 tonnes of gold to its reserves last year. This trend is not just a fleeting one; early 2024 data indicates that these nations are continuing their aggressive gold acquisition. Analysts suggest this gold buying spree is a defensive measure against potential economic repercussions from a looming recession in the US and the forthcoming presidential elections. By increasing their gold reserves, BRICS nations aim to shield their economies from the volatility of the US dollar, with gold serving as a vital hedge against market crashes and inflation.

In a promising start to 2024, U.S. business activity has shown a notable uptick in January, alongside signs of cooling inflation. S&P Global's latest survey reveals that the flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, encompassing manufacturing and services sectors, has risen to a robust 52.3, marking its highest point since the previous June. This surge from December's 50.9 is attributed to significant gains in both the services and manufacturing domains. Furthermore, a key highlight is the reduction in prices charged by companies for their products, reaching their lowest in over three and a half years, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures.

XIB Asset Management, a Canadian hedge fund that soared by 227% during the first two years of the pandemic, is now strategically focusing on gold and uranium, anticipating their strong performance as interest rates are predicted to fall. The fund's founders, Sean McNulty and Peter Hatziioannou, foresee a near-future where policymakers start reducing borrowing costs, boosting prospects for global resources and revitalizing Canadian capital markets.

As the conflict continues to accelerate in Gaza and beyond, 2024 is set for a somewhat terrifying boom in global uncertainty — and will take gold prices with it.

The Atlantic Council has identified the Federal Reserve's rate hikes as a key driver behind the growing trend of de-dollarization globally. The Fed's rate increases, coinciding with the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have made dollar borrowing costlier and less accessible. This change has encouraged emerging market firms to explore alternatives like the Chinese Yuan (RMB). The think tank also acknowledges the geopolitical elements in play, particularly the Western sanctions against Russia, which have frozen Moscow's currency reserves and restricted its access to the global financial system, further accelerating the move away from the U.S. dollar.