Precious metals news

Bond giant PIMCO predicts challenges for U.S. government bonds due to widening budget deficits and possible inflationary trade policies after the November election. Although the firm expects a soft economic landing and sees opportunities in intermediate-duration bonds, it cautions against longer-duration bonds that may be affected by fiscal and trade policies. PIMCO forecasts persistent high deficits and a steepening yield curve, regardless of which party wins the election.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed inflation at 2.4% annually, slightly higher than expected but lower than August's 2.5%. While overall inflation continued to cool, core prices remained sticky, rising 0.3% monthly. This data, combined with strong labor market figures, may influence the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions.

Bill Gross, a renowned investor, suggests that the robust stock market rally of the past five years is slowing down. He advises investors to expect lower but still positive returns, recommending a shift towards defensive stocks while maintaining average market exposure and including a small bond position. Gross cites various factors influencing this outlook, including high valuations, geopolitical risks, and potential changes in the political landscape, balanced against positive forces like moderating inflation and AI investment.

The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes, set to be released on Wednesday, may reveal the extent of disagreement among policymakers regarding the surprising 50 basis point rate cut. The minutes could provide insight into whether the decision was unanimous or contentious, given the first dissent from a Board Governor in 19 years and the unusually wide range of projections for future rate cuts. This information could help shape expectations for the Fed's monetary policy direction in the coming months.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has reported that the U.S. federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2024, marking the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. This increase from the previous year's $1.7 trillion deficit is attributed to rising interest payments on debt, increased spending on social programs, and tax revenues not keeping pace with expenditures. Despite steady economic growth and low unemployment, the deficit continues to grow, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges for the U.S. economy.

In this insightful video, Alan Hibbard and Mike Maloney dive deep into the driving factors behind gold’s ongoing bull market, focusing on the key role

The U.S. trade deficit significantly narrowed in August 2024, reaching its smallest level in five months. This reduction was primarily due to a 2% increase in exports, particularly in capital goods and motor vehicles, while imports fell by 0.9%. The trade gap decreased by 10.8% to $70.4 billion, with the $8.5 billion narrowing being the largest since March 2023. This improvement in the trade balance could potentially have a positive impact on the country's gross domestic product for the third quarter.

The Chinese stock market experienced unprecedented volatility and trading volume as mainland markets reopened after the Golden Week holiday. The CSI 300 Index initially surged 11% before quickly retracing, while Hong Kong stocks plummeted 10%. This frenzy was driven by investors rotating from Hong Kong to mainland shares, disappointment over lack of new stimulus details, and a rush of new, young investors entering the market12. The extreme swings and record-breaking turnover have led some analysts to draw parallels with previous boom-bust cycles in Chinese stocks, raising concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally.

China's recent stimulus package has boosted commodity markets, particularly metals like iron ore, copper, and zinc. As mainland Chinese markets reopen after a week-long holiday, investors are watching closely to see if the rally will continue. While some industry experts are optimistic about this potential turning point for China's economy, others caution that further stabilization in the property market and reduction of housing inventory are necessary for sustained growth.

The dollar eased from recent highs as traders reevaluated the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut path. A robust jobs report and statements from Fed officials, including Chair Powell, have led to a shift in market expectations. Investors now anticipate fewer and smaller rate cuts in 2024, with the likelihood of a significant initial cut in September diminishing. This reassessment has supported the dollar's strength against major currencies, though geopolitical tensions continue to influence its safe-haven appeal.

The gold rally that pushed prices to record highs is showing signs of losing momentum as investors reassess their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the U.S. dollar strengthens. Analysts point to crowded speculative positioning, bullish sentiment, and technical indicators nearing sell thresholds as factors that could lead to a pullback in gold prices. The upcoming U.S. inflation report and labor market data may serve as potential catalysts for further repricing of Fed rate expectations, potentially putting additional pressure on gold.

The world's largest Bitcoin Mining Company is gambling BIG TIME on the backs of shareholders and debt for the much-anticipated "Bitcoin Doubling" to occur.  Unfortunately, the supposed Bitcoin Doubling is getting pushed back further and further... oops...

Gold jewelry remains popular for Chinese weddings, but young couples are increasingly opting for cost-effective alternatives. While traditional gold pieces like dragon-and-phoenix bracelets are still sought after, many newlyweds are choosing more affordable options or forgoing elaborate jewelry altogether. Despite higher gold prices, the demand for wedding jewelry is expected to grow, with gold maintaining its dominance in China's jewelry market. However, the younger generation is now making decisions based on personal preferences and budget considerations, shifting away from parental influence.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has escalated once again, with Hamas launching rockets at Tel Aviv in response to Israeli airstrikes on Gaza. This exchange of fire, along with Israel's redeployment of troops to northern Gaza, highlights the ongoing threat perceived by Netanyahu's government despite significant losses inflicted on Hamas over the past year of war. The conflict continues to exact a heavy toll on civilians, with thousands killed and widespread destruction in Gaza.

The recent jobs report has revived the "no landing" scenario in the bond market, challenging previous expectations of slowing growth and aggressive rate cuts. This unexpected economic strength, characterized by rapid job growth, falling unemployment, and rising wages, has caused Treasury yields to surge and forced investors to reconsider their positions on potential interest rate reductions. The situation has created a complex landscape for traders and the Federal Reserve, as they grapple with the possibility of continued economic expansion and potential inflationary pressures.

The upcoming week will focus on two key economic events: the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the start of third quarter earnings season. The CPI report will provide crucial insights into inflation trends, while major financial institutions like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will kick off earnings reports on Friday. These events will likely shape investor sentiment and market movements in the days ahead.

Gold held steady as traders adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in light of robust US jobs figures. Trading close to $2,660 an ounce, gold remained below its recent record high. Treasury yields climbed back to 4%, reducing the probability of a major rate cut in November. Despite gold's 29% rally this year, fueled by rate cut optimism and geopolitical factors, recent market data indicates a more measured approach from investors.

Gold prices inched up on Monday due to increased safe-haven demand amid escalating Middle East tensions, while investors await U.S. inflation data for insights into potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. The market is balancing between a strengthening dollar and geopolitical uncertainties, with upcoming economic indicators expected to provide clearer direction for gold's near-term performance.

What interesting geopolitics we had in the world this past week.  In my latest update, I share a Must-See Gold chart and discuss Metals Focus's latest update on how the Silver miners' costs have surged in the past few years.  I believe silver will continue to be one of the best assets to own in the future...

The world is unprepared for the coming Squeeze in "Net Oil Exports."  While the peak and decline in global oil supply is bad enough, the impact on net oil exports will be far worse.  Unfortunately, no one is really tracking this information anymore...