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The Most Small Businesses Since 1974 Are Raising Prices Due to Inflation, NFIB Says: MWFeb 8, 2022 - 07:31:41 PST
The number of small businesses that raising prices on customers in January rose to a 48-year high, reflecting higher costs of labor and materials amid the biggest surge in U.S. inflation since the early 1980s.
Question of the day: Does a surge in bank lending lead to a surge in inflation?
Americans Borrowed More to Buy Much Less: What Happened with Auto Loans Is Truly AmazingFeb 8, 2022 - 07:25:06 PST
Consumers borrowed bravely in December, amid shortages of all kinds, particularly new vehicle shortages, and amid skyrocketing prices of new and used vehicles, and sharply higher prices on other goods and services. Undeterred, consumers bought not what they wanted to buy, but what there was to buy. And enough consumers borrowed to do so in order to make banks smile again.
I know. Right now, you are thinking, how could anyone suggest a 50-percent decline in the market is NOT a bear market. Logically you are correct. However, technically, we need an essential distinction between a “correction” and a “bear market.”
Net earnings guidance for companies has turned most negative since 2009, per index constructed by @biancoresearch @Bloomberg
Global ETF gold holdings started off 2022 with a healthy increase.Global gold ETFs recorded net inflows of 46.3 tons last month as gold investment demand returned with decades-high inflation and heightened market volatility. Total ETF gold holdings globally ended January at 3,615.6 tons, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council.
The January jobs report came in much stronger than expected. According to the labor department, the US economy added 467,000 jobs last month. This was significantly better than the 150,000 job projection. But there was some bad inflation news buried in the Labor Department data.
Feb 8, 2022 - 05:44:33 PST
The fact is nobody is going to want to buy US debt at 4% inflation, let alone 7% (real yields would still be negative). The Fed will continue to print money, buy bonds and keep interest rates below 1% for as long as it can — probably hoping that inflation will magically melt away — all of which is extremely positive for gold.
The global stockpile of negative-yielding bonds has dropped to the lowest level in more than six years -- with almost $3 trillion making the leap back into positive-yield territory in just two days last week -- in one of the most visible indications yet that the era of easy money is coming to an end.
While conventional logic suggests rising yields should buoy the greenback, traders are now betting the Fed’s policy tightening will crimp economic growth down the road. Demand for dollar call-options has plummeted to the lowest in nine months with the currency erasing its year-to-date gains.
Bank of America Strategists Warn Fed Hikes in Pricey Market to End PoorlyFeb 8, 2022 - 05:26:25 PST
Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as they’ve done in the past are missing one important detail, according to Bank of America Corp.’s strategists.
Euro zone inflation risks are on the rise but price pressures could still subside before becoming entrenched in expectations, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday. Pointing to mounting inflation risks, Lagarde opened the door last week to an interest rate hike later in 2022 and said that a...
Chile’s consumer prices rose at more than twice the pace analysts expected last month, suggesting the central bank will continue with its aggressive monetary tightening cycle after lifting its key rate by the most in over 20 years in January.Prices leaped 1.2% in January, above the 0.5% median estimate of...
The selloff in the world’s biggest bond markets looks set to extend, which will push benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields beyond 2% as expectations for aggressive rate hikes mount, according to investors. Yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed to as high as 1.96% on Tuesday, the highest since November 2019...
The Fed and Other Central Banks Can’t Control Inflation — And May Not Want To: MWFeb 8, 2022 - 05:03:18 PST
The world’s central banks may lack the necessary tools to control inflation this time around. Yet despite their strident denials, rising prices in fact might be consistent with their objectives.
Restaurants — scarred by COVID-19 and related restrictions — may never climb back to pre-pandemic levels, a grim new report suggests.
U.S. small business confidence fell to an 11-month low in January amid persistent worker shortages and higher prices for materials, a survey showed on Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index dropped 1.8 points to 97.1 last month, the lowest reading since...
Ukraine and OPEC have become inflation risks — of sorts. And Wall Street, preoccupied as it has become with a host of other issues like interest rates, earnings and economic growth, has yet to fully appreciate why they matter.
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY: Hitting Energy Cliff As World Reaches Peak ResourcesFebruary 8, 2022
While the global semiconductor shortage may subside, the situation will return again in a few years and will only get worse as the world heads over the Energy Cliff. Why? Because, the Global Semiconductor Industry consumes a massive amount of energy, resources, and water that are all now getting in short supply...
Gold prices climbed to a more than one-week high on Monday, supported by inflation worries and lingering geopolitical risks, as markets awaited key U.S. inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike trajectory.