In February, the data showed that Yellen was making a big bet that long-term rates would not stay elevated for long. This was demonstrated by the volume of short-term debt issuance. The Treasury was willing to pay higher rates to keep the maturity of the debt shorter.
On Friday, gold prices soared, setting a new record high amidst a mix of factors, including anticipation of U.S. interest rate cuts, speculative purchases, and robust buying by central banks. Despite the strong job growth reported in March in the U.S., the momentum behind gold has propelled it to its third consecutive week of gains. The price of spot gold rose by 1.3% to $2,320.04 per ounce, peaking at $2,344.50 earlier in the day. This week alone, gold has increased by 3.8%, signaling a sustained upward trend.
The U.S. economy added an impressive 303,000 jobs in March, substantially outpacing the predicted 200,000, leading to a reevaluation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory. This robust job growth, detailed in the Labor Department's report, has lessened expectations for an imminent rate cut, with the likelihood of a reduction in June now down to 54.4%. As a result, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields climbed, reflecting investor anticipation that the Fed may delay easing monetary policy due to the strong labor market indicators.
The latest March jobs report outperformed expectations, adding 303,000 jobs to the U.S. economy, significantly above the forecasted 214,000, and lowering the unemployment rate to 3.8%. In a discussion on Yahoo Finance, experts Dana Peterson and Brian Levitt analyze the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, emphasizing the double-edged sword of wage growth. While wages remain elevated at 4% compared to the pre-pandemic average of just under 3%, indicating potential inflationary pressures, there is a silver lining with the slowdown in housing inflation. Nonetheless, the persistent high wage growth poses challenges to controlling consumer inflation.
Nicky Shiels, the head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP, has revised the gold price forecast upward for 2024, sparking curious inquiries from the market on whether gold could mimic the recent explosive price surge seen in cocoa. Cocoa prices skyrocketed, doubling due to poor harvests in major producing countries, Ivory Coast and Ghana. This comparison arises as gold, despite its broader market and liquidity, achieved record highs in five consecutive trading sessions. Investors are increasingly drawn to gold, viewing it as a reliable asset for wealth preservation amidst uncertainties.
With gold hitting yet another awe-inspiring all-time high in the wake of Powell’s remarks reassuring markets (more or less) to expect rate cuts in 2024, a few analysts are pointing out risk factors for a correction — so is there really still room to run?
As gold prices ascend, nearing record highs with a more than 20% increase since last October, gold mining stocks remain unexpectedly stagnant. This discrepancy puzzles many, suggesting that either mining stocks must rise to match gold's momentum or gold prices must adjust downward. Leading the optimistic perspective, Christopher Mancini of the Gabelli Gold Fund, emphasizes that gold stocks are bound for an uptick, given they haven't yet reflected the rising gold prices. Despite production costs for mining companies surging by 35% since early 2020, mainly from increased labor expenses, there's a strong belief in the sector's potential for growth if gold continues its upward trajectory.
JD and Joel discuss gold's new record high and silver's tear upwards, an earthquake in NYC, headline jobs numbers, and Peter's most recent podcast.
David Rosenberg, the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, forecasts a significant rise in gold prices, potentially reaching $3,000 or more. Despite gold facing a potential loss in its current session, Rosenberg's optimism is not solely based on the Federal Reserve's actions. He points to a combination of factors fueling this upward trend: an upcoming easing cycle, global economic growth weakening, and inflation nearing the end of its decline. Rosenberg believes these elements will serve as strong tailwinds, propelling gold to new heights in the near future.
Analyzing gold from both a price and time perspective, the folks at InvestingHaven anticipate the upward trend to persist within the current 3-month cycle, likely peaking around mid-May. The analysis suggests a strong possibility for gold to reach or even surpass $2,500 by May, although it may not sustain this level on a 5 to 8 day closing basis. This projection is based on the current patterns observed in gold's price chart, indicating a continuation of the rally until at least May 2024.
Pandora, the renowned jewellery brand, has announced a shift to exclusively using recycled silver and gold in its products, aiming to significantly lessen its environmental impact. This move is primarily driven by the desire to cut down on greenhouse gas emissions, as mining for new precious metals is far more energy-intensive and resource-demanding than recycling. The company highlights that recycled silver has only one-third the carbon footprint of newly mined silver, and recycled gold produces less than 1% of the emissions compared to mining new gold. By making this change, Pandora expects to reduce its carbon emissions by around 58,000 tons annually, which is comparable to the yearly electricity use of 11,000 homes or the emissions from 6,000 cars traveling around the world.
Chinese Gen Zers are turning to gold as an investment as global prices spike. But they’re not just looking for the usual necklaces and bracelets.
Hedge fund manager David Einhorn, speaking at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, expressed his view that inflation is picking up pace again, contrary to what many investors might think. Citing recent U.S. data, including a 2.8% rise in the core personal consumption expenditures price index for February—which overshoots the Federal Reserve's 2% target—Einhorn argues that reducing inflation will be more challenging than anticipated. Despite expectations, he predicts the Federal Reserve might enact fewer than three interest rate cuts this year, if any at all. Given these inflation concerns, Einhorn has significantly increased his investment in gold.
In Thursday's late-afternoon trading, the entire S&P 500 index faced declines, notably led by a 1.5% drop in the information technology sector. Other key sectors, including healthcare, financials, communication services, materials, and industrials, also fell sharply by over 1%. Overall, the U.S. stock market saw significant downturns: the S&P 500 dropped by 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite by 1.3%, as per the latest FactSet data.
The connection between shares in Chinese tech giant Alibaba and gold may not be immediately obvious, but an article from Barron's suggests the two could be interlinked. Alibaba, a leading Chinese tech firm, has experienced a sharp decline in its stock value, losing over 75% since late 2020, amid regulatory pressures and China's economic slowdown. This downtrend contrasts starkly with the surge in gold prices, which have reached record highs above $2,300 per troy ounce, marking a 12% increase this year alone. This situation highlights the debate over the potential of Chinese stocks to recover and the role of gold as a safe haven for investors during times of uncertainty.
In 2024, gold prices have been on the rise, driven by increasing investor interest in the commodity amidst a volatile global environment marked by geopolitical tensions and predictions of sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve. State Street Global Advisors' Chief Gold Strategist, George Milling-Stanley, highlighted that historical patterns show gold thrives in such turbulent times. He also noted the broadening appeal of gold to investors, suggesting a strong performance outlook for the metal, potentially reaching up to $2,400.
The strong US dollar is challenging economies worldwide, compelling central banks and governments to take measures to protect their currencies. As the US economy's resilience delays anticipated interest rate cuts, the dollar has risen against almost all major currencies in 2024, surprising many analysts. Japan has hinted at possible interventions to support the yen, which is near a 34-year low, while Turkey unexpectedly raised interest rates to strengthen the lira. Other countries like China, Indonesia, Sweden, and India are also taking steps to stabilize their currencies.
Gold passed $2,300 per ounce briefly earlier today, fueled by anticipation of a U.S. interest rate cut. Meanwhile, silver climbed 4% to close at $27.18 an ounce, the highest since June 2021.
Gold prices soared to a new peak, surpassing $2,300 per ounce, fueled by anticipation of a U.S. interest rate cut. This optimism was kindled by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, indicating that recent positive economic data hasn't altered the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Although spot gold slightly dipped to $2,287.88 after reaching a record $2,304.09, the surge underscores investors' growing confidence in gold as a safe haven amid monetary easing expectations.
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