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A look at housing starts and homes under construction shows a welcome wave of supply is on the way.
As mentioned yesterday, daily updates into the March close are warranted given the extreme situation in the market. Today is First Position, which means the data tonight will give the first indication of March deliveries. Let’s get into it…
The Fed added $68B to its balance sheet in February. This was divided across $57B in MBS, $25B in Treasuries, and -$15B in Repos (i.e., Other and not to be confused with Reverse Repos). The Fed taper process is certainly not as clean as laid out on their website in Treasuries and MBS. In February, they purchased 42% above its original $40B target in MBS but has fallen back to 31% of its original $80B Treasury target.
Pending Home Sales is once again the tie-breaker for the trend of the housing market in January (after existing home sales surged and new home sales slumped) and analysts expect a very modest rebound after two straight months of MoM declines. They were wrong... very wrong! Pending home sales crashed 5.7%...
UMich Consumer Sentiment Remains At 11-Year-Lows; 'Rich' & 'Independents' WeakestFeb 25, 2022 - 07:26:59 PST
Having tumbled to decade (or worse) lows in the preliminary February data, University of Michigan's sentiment survey was expected to show no improvement in the final print but in fact the headline reading of sentiment picked up to 62.8 from 61.7 earlier in the month (though still remains at decade lows).
British consumer confidence suffered its biggest month-on-month drop in February since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, as people worried about fast-rising inflation, higher taxes and interest rates going up, a survey showed on Friday.
You've probably heard people say inflation is being caused by "greedy corporations." They back up this increasingly popular narrative with tales of "excessive corporate profits." In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey busts this myth. He also talks about the wild ride in the gold and silver markets after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Feb 25, 2022 - 05:56:12 PST
Major risks, however, remain and after finding support at $1880, the November high gold has started to regain some ground. Elevated volatility can be expected given the current situation but high inflation for longer and slowing growth remains our two main reasons for sticking to our belief in higher prices this year.
Fed's 'Favorite' Inflation Indicator Hotter Than Expected At 40-Year HighsFeb 25, 2022 - 05:55:04 PST
That is the biggest MoM jump in spending since March 2021 and given the lack of income gains, sent the savings rate plunging to just 6.4% of DPI - the lowest since Dec 2016!
The EU is planning to freeze the assets of both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov under a new sanctions package being pushed through on Friday, according to FT, citing three people familiar with the matter.
Feb 25, 2022 - 05:48:03 PST
In other words, the PPP program worked out just like quantitative easing: it disproportionately benefitted the richest people in the nation.
Based upon reliable sources, Trudeau has been forced to abandon his Emergency Act as a staggering amount of money has fled Canadian banks. Canadians have moved accounts to the United States by the tens of thousands following Trudeau’s freezing bank accounts without a court order which has even included credit...
Ukraine Foreign Minister Furious As EU Fails To Block Russia From Swift Payment SystemFeb 25, 2022 - 05:41:05 PST
Ukraine foreign minister voices anger as EU leaders decide against blocking Russia from international payments system
Feb 25, 2022 - 05:36:57 PST
If enacted in its current form after being reconciled in the Senate, the bill will have profound consequences for cross-border mergers, outbound U.S. investments, technology licensing, and possibly even technology exports.
Russia still has about $300 billion of foreign currency held offshore -- enough to disrupt money markets if it’s frozen by sanctions or moved suddenly to avoid them.
Given the surge there, oil in particular, you know, is that something that is going to be inflationary, or could it be disinflationary, depending on the duration?
The European Central Bank should continue its bond-buying stimulus program at least until the end of the year and keep it open-ended to cushion the fallout from any conflict in Ukraine, ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras told Reuters.
The West is serious about Russian sanctions and is cutting off the country’s biggest banks from large parts of global finance. If sanctions have to go further, Europe must lead the way, even though massively restricting energy and commodities trade will hurt its economy as well as Russia’s.
The situation remains precarious in the oil markets amid the Russia invasion of Ukraine, says Goldman Sachs' Jeffrey Currie.
Officials in several OPEC producers said on Thursday that there was no immediate need to produce more—even though Brent has surpassed the $100 mark, calling the situation "complicated and volatile."