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The macro-economic picture is deteriorating fast and could push the U.S. economy into recession as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy to tame surging inflation, BofA strategists warned in a weekly research note. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signalled it will likely start culling assets from its...
Quant Guru Calculates Fed Can Only Hike To 1% Before It Must Halt The CycleApr 8, 2022 - 06:04:06 PDT
The final point: prior to Lael Brainard’s comments, the remaining 300bp hike in the Shadow FFR was split between a headline FFR rise to only 1½% with the remainder being QT. But now that the Fed minutes confirmed that the pace of QT will accelerate accelerate to $95BN (or more) per month, Edwards concludes that "the actual FFR will struggle to get to 1% before the Fed needs to halt the tightening cycle. That is shocking."
Wild Inflation Will Hurt All Financial Assets, Market Researcher Jim Bianco WarnsApr 8, 2022 - 06:01:19 PDT
Market researcher Jim Bianco of Bianco Research sees widespread losses on Wall Street due aggressive Federal Reserve's policies to lower inflation.
The ECB has for years maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, pushing interest rates to record lows and hoovering up billions of euros in bonds each months to keep credit flowing in the eurozone.
"The yen is weakening and the current account balance has swung into a deficit," he added. "These underscore a growing need to ensure firm economic and fiscal policies so as to win confidence in the currency."
The recent recovery of Chinese technology stocks hasn’t just lured bargain hunters. Short sellers are piling in, too.
Ruble Surges To 5-Month Highs After Russia Unexpectedly Slashes Rates By 300bpsApr 8, 2022 - 05:31:50 PDT
While the rest of the world is engaged in tightening monetary policy to tame the self-inflicted inflation beast, Russia’s central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate the most in nearly two decades last night in an attempt to stave off a domestic recession and bolster confidence in the economy.
In most of the world, exchange-traded funds are simply tools that allow investors to track a certain set of stocks. In Japan, they’ve been saddled with everything from propping up the market and boosting inflation, to accelerating economic growth, improving corporate governance and even encouraging gender...
Global food prices are surging at the fastest pace ever as the war in Ukraine chokes crop supplies, piling more inflationary pain on consumers and worsening a global hunger crisis.
While the cost to produce precious metals has increased over the past decade, silver has been impacted the most compared to its market price. Thus, the primary silver mining industry is experiencing much lower profit margins than the primary gold mining industry. This now suggests that the FLOOR PRICE for...
If you consider the global price of gold in dollar terms, this amounts to a substantial overvaluation of the Rouble vis-à-vis the dollar. However, Russia has made it clear that its peg with the dollar is immaterial and what matters is the peg of Rouble to gold.
Ounces of gold coins and other minted products shipped by The Perth Mint in March lifts 68% over previous month.
Global gold ETFs had net inflows of 187.3t (US$11.8bn, 5.3% of AUM) in March, with assets just below the record of US$240.3bn, set in August 2020.1 March inflows were the strongest since February 2016, despite a significant rebound in equities and a strong US dollar performance. There were positive flows across all...
Apr 7, 2022 - 12:58:02 PDT
Despite a long-standing misperception, rising interest rates can actually improve the outlook for gold prices.
Shocking Consumer Credit Numbers: Credit Card Debt Soars With Savings Long GoneApr 7, 2022 - 12:56:38 PDT
Here are the shocking numbers: in November, consumer credit exploded by a whopping $41.8 billion, more than double the expected $18.1 billion print, nearly five times more than the upward revised $8.9 billion January number (revised from $6.8 billion), and the highest on record!
Do "Inflationary Expectations" Cause Inflation? Contra Krugman, the Answer Is NoApr 7, 2022 - 12:48:01 PDT
Contrary to what Krugman claims, we hold that inflation is not about increases in consumer prices but about increases in money supply. Also contrary to various commentators, what Krugman describes as inflationary expectations in the absence of increases in money supply cannot cause general increase in the prices of goods and services.
"Politicians often rig reporting requirements to hide the damage their laws inflict. Anyone who has blind faith in federal data is unfit to judge public policy in the real world." ~ James Bovard
The Federal Reserve remains behind in its fight against inflation despite increases in mortgage rates and government bond yields that have raced ahead of actual changes in the central bank's target federal funds rate, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said Thursday.
Worries That 8% Inflation, More Fed Comments on Balance-Sheet Runoff Could Scare the Bond Market: MWApr 7, 2022 - 12:35:28 PDT
Traders are preparing for a U.S. consumer price index report next week that’s likely to show an annual headline rate above 8% for the first time since January 1982, a development that would raise fresh questions about the Federal Reserve’s early plans for shrinking its balance sheet.
Commodities could surge by as much 40% -- taking them far into record territory -- should investors boost their allocation to raw materials at a time of rising inflation, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.