Junk bond yields actually fell over the past month and are historically low.
To make a long story short, a 40-year mortgage, by stretching the payment out from 30 to 40 years, means that the mortgage mortgage payment declines from $1,687 to $1,504.
Even more concerning is that inflation expectations soar without ending, median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth remained unchanged at 3.0% in March for the third consecutive month and the lowest since August 2021, confirming that real incomes continue to slide and that the US consumer is headed for a world of recessionary pain.
Investors are growing more skittish about bonds backed by consumer debt, worried that inflation and slowing growth will increase the number of low-income borrowers falling behind on car payments or credit-card bills.
The American government was relatively more generous during the pandemic, borrowing and spending trillions of dollars to not only fund COVID-19 relief efforts but to line the pockets of Americans with direct payments that enlarged the money supply and overheated the economy.
A new inflation reading is due out Tuesday morning, and it looks to be a doozy. The Consumer Price Index for March will reflect the surge in energy prices tied to the war in Ukraine, which is likely to push the headline number to yet another multi-decade high.
"America has stopped producing products, we produce bubbles," says best-selling author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki. He warns inflation levels correlate to a serious problem only getting worse, adding that, "the repo market has inverted again," and a recession is imminent.
The bottom line is there is practically only one way for the Fed to stop the inflation. That’s by raising rates until they cause a recession. It’s a fair question whether the cure (recession) is worse than the disease (inflation).
Wolf Richter on This Week in Money.
Tweets of the day involve food shortages. Let's take a look.
China's factory-gate and consumer prices rose faster than expected in March as Russia's invasion of Ukraine, persistent supply chain bottlenecks and production snags caused by local COVID flare-ups added to commodity cost pressures.
As mortgage rates near 5%, these same homeowners are thinking twice when it comes to trading up.
Delivery volume for April gold is looking strong, beating out February. There are still 1,984 contracts open, so the month could even eclipse the total from last August.
Right now, my economic forecast is we are entering an inflationary recession or “stagflation” period. I believe it will result in a bear market, as all recessions do. I’ve shown you a lot of evidence in recent weeks. I’m still reasonably confident in that outlook… but I also have to consider other possibilities.
The central bank may find itself rooting against corporate America.
Alas, central banks, especially the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have fed the creation of zombie companies for years through ultra-low interest rates and QE programs.
The rollout of a traceable and programmable digital dollar in the U.S. is being fast tracked to conceal a necessary and forthcoming dollar default. And with the abundance of sociopaths in Washington, not only will the digital dollar destroy economic freedom and financial privacy… It will destroy free speech too.
The hegemony of the U.S. dollar was reliant on America’s hegemonic status in the world. With the world moving toward multipolarity and with the U.S. no longer the world’s largest trading nation... Earlier this month, in his speech, Putin spoke of diversifying reserve currencies to national currencies, gold and other commodities. It may not be just Russia that would consider diversifying reserves.
Gold futures rose early Monday, as investors shook off a continued rise in Treasury yields as the focus appeared to remain on worries over rising inflation pressures.
Long-term inflationary forces are building, as even the Bank for International Settlements, central bank to the world’s central banks, warned this week. The bad news is that the current inflation means it’s already expensive to protect against rising prices.