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Global manufacturing growth has started to decelerate as supply chain problems, the rising cost of energy and raw materials, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine take their toll.
If you think earnings and the stock market will rise with this going on, I've got news for you: Expect More Stock Market Pain Because It's Coming
Previewing The Fed's Decision To Kick Off A Record Tightening Cycle Right Into A RecessionMay 3, 2022 - 12:21:28 PDT
What the market will let it do, is something else, and inflation or no inflation (expect the definition of CPI to be fully revised in a few months to exclude anything that is surging in price) we expect Powell will abort the Fed's tightening process early, just like it did in Q4 2018, with stocks cratering to drive the point home, and forcing the Fed to not only end its tightening but to fast forward to easing and even more QE.
You don't Want to be in Markets when Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street Flip from Bid to AskMay 3, 2022 - 12:15:20 PDT
The go-to bullish indicators highlighted by pundits these days are the high levels of sidelined mutual fund cash and the AAII investor sentiment survey hitting its highest bearish reading since 2009: picture1.png Traditionally, these signals suggest that most of the carnage is priced into markets, indicating that it might be...
The cost to insure bonds of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup against default hit two-year highs on Monday on growing fears the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive moves to tame inflation might tip the economy into recession.
‘You Don’t Want To Own Bonds & Stocks’ in This Environment Paul Tudor Jones Who Called ’87 Crash: MWMay 3, 2022 - 12:05:21 PDT
A Federal Reserve moving aggressively to play catch-up with inflation offers an ugly backdrop for stocks and bonds, warns the billionaire investor who rose to fame predicting the 1987 stock-market crash.
May 3, 2022 - 11:49:08 PDT
I sat down with market mechanics expert Joe Saluzzi for his latest update on how HFTs have changed the way markets operate (vs the old days when trading was done by actual humans).
What we are seeing now is Nikolai Patrushev and the Kremlin confirming this simple equation of linking the Russian ruble to gold and commodities. In other words, the beginning of a multilateral gold and commodity backed monetary system, i.e. Bretton Woods III.
Suffering from U.S. and EU sanctions, Russia made a surprise move – its central bank fixed the price of 5,000 rubles to a gram of gold. Few Western investors or executives noticed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin put the West on notice on Tuesday that he could terminate exports and deals, the Kremlin's toughest response yet to the sanctions burden imposed by the United States and allies over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
More Russian banks will be disconnected from the global banking communications system SWIFT, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, warned on Monday.
Contracting the amount of money in the economy is deflationary and, if social mood turns negative as we expect, credit contraction will also be starting this year.
Inflation fears are about to slam into the far bigger, deflationary reality of a strengthening dollar. The benighted hacks who invent the news ought to ask their supposed experts how much more inflation the U.S. is likely to have with the dollar rising sharply.
The second concern is about damage to the Fed’s credibility. Powell did not acknowledge that inflation was not transitory until President Joe Biden reappointed him. No doubt this was a coincidence. Either way, the institution that until recently was seen as the most effective in Washington may be forced to relearn the lessons of the 1970s and early 1980s...
A Record Number Of Americans Just Quit Their Job, As Job Openings Surpass Unemployed WorkersMay 3, 2022 - 07:44:37 PDT
Another month, another blockbuster JOLTS report confirming just how terribly broken the US labor market is.
Much depends on how fast the Fed can cause a recession, destroy demand, and crush the stock market and housing too.
US Manufactures: Inflation Is “Out of Control,” – “Intensified” Amid Strong Demand, ShortagesMay 3, 2022 - 07:35:41 PDT
“Efforts to stockpile” input materials to counter price increases and shortages. But finished products inventories continued to fall.
I suspect we will see outright contraction within a few months at most. Contraction next month would not at all be surprising, at least to me.
Following February's disappointing 0.5% MoM decline in US Factory Orders (and despite the ongoing slump in ISM Manufacturing), analysts expected a rebound in March and they were right. US Factory Orders surged 2.2% MoM in March and February was revised up from a 0.5% decline to a 0.1% MoM rise. Ex-Transports...
“A Recession at This Stage Is Almost Inevitable,” Former Fed Vice Chair Roger FergusonMay 3, 2022 - 05:52:56 PDT
Doubts are rising about whether it can pull it off, even among some former Fed officials. Wall Street saw another day of whipsaw trading Monday afternoon, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rebounding after being down more than 1% earlier in the session.