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The consumer price index for May was expected to increase 8.3% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates.
The Recession Will Hit in the First Half of 2023 and the Dow Is Headed Lower: CNBC CFO SurveyJun 10, 2022 - 05:32:14 PDT
CFOs are as worried about inflation as everyone else, and expect the economy to enter a recession during the first half of 2023, according to a CNBC survey.
Yellen Says U.S. Recession Unlikely, but No Drop in Gasoline Prices SoonJun 10, 2022 - 05:30:47 PDT
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday she did not expect the U.S. economy to tip into a recession, but growth would "absolutely" slow down and gasoline prices were unlikely to fall anytime soon.
The following chart, from Chartr via Lance Roberts, shows the magnitude of the inventory pileup at big-box stores Walmart and Target.
EU 'Fragmentation' Accelerates As Markets Test Lagarde's 'Whatever It Takes' MomentJun 10, 2022 - 05:24:10 PDT
So what happens next? Will Christine fold?
Beleaguered by the soaring cost of energy imports, Germany’s famed trade surplus has all but evaporated since the start of 2021 as the following chart via Holger Zschaepitz highlights.
The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for May came in scorching hot at 0.98% MoM and 8.62% YoY, beating expectations of 0.7% and 8.3% respectively. All prices rose in May with 9 of 11 categories rising faster than the 12-month trend, representing 97.5% of the total CPI.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May came out this morning. The projection was for another hot headline number but some relief in core CPI. This would seem to indicate we've passed peak inflation. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharey explains why "good news" in the CPI data would be bad news for inflation. Then he reacts to the data in real-time. (Hint — it wasn't good news.)
Jun 9, 2022 - 13:02:25 PDT
Gold is attracting retail investors even as the dollar has gained strength, marking an unusual move, considering the pair's inverse relationship.
"When central banking’s role is understood in neo-Keynesian terms—i.e., from a macroeconomic standpoint that emphasizes top-down demand-side management of the economy—it’s easy to understand why central bankers might gradually succumb to a Masters-of-the-Universe mindset." ~ Samuel Gregg
The occurrence of stagflation is associated with a situation of general strengthening in the momentum of prices while at the same time the pace of economic activity is declining.
The average price of gasoline in the U.S. is already on course to hit $5 for the first time ever, and there is no relief in sight as inventories fall and supply risks mount...
The national average price of gas reached a record-breaking $5 per gallon Thursday, according to GasBuddy. "It’s been one kink after another this year, and worst of all, demand doesn’t seem to be responding to the surge in gas prices, meaning there is a high probability that prices could go even higher in the weeks ahead.
Lagarde’s Communication Is Muddled, Ex-ECB Chief Economist Says: BloombergJun 9, 2022 - 12:23:14 PDT
The European Central Bank president’s messaging lacks clarity as the institution plots its exit from negative interest rates, according to Peter Praet, an ex-ECB chief economist.
Housing analyst Nick Gerli returns to the program to warn how swiftly the prospects for home prices are eroding. Confidence in the housing market was supreme just a month or two ago. But suddenly that confidence is vaporizing as an increasing number of experts now caution of a "full blown" correction ahead.
Stocks Extend Slide As Wall Street Gears Up for Tomorrow's Inflation DataJun 9, 2022 - 12:14:52 PDT
U.S. stocks extended losses early Thursday as bond yields charged forward. The moves followed data on the labor market that disappointed before the open and confirmation from the European Central Bank of its intention to raise interest rates next month.
Housing Bubble Getting Ready to Pop: “Bad Time to Buy” Hits Record amid Sky-High PriceJun 9, 2022 - 12:07:52 PDT
Refinance mortgage applications collapsed to lowest since year 2000.
Pending home sales, mortgage application, and asking prices all say the same thing. But it's rent, not home prices, in the CPI.
“If the economy slowed sharply and unemployment rose considerably, the combination of more highly indebted Canadians and high house prices could amplify the downturn,” Macklem told reporters, adding it could have “broad” implications for the economy and financial system.
U.S. household wealth declined for the first time in two years in the first quarter of 2022 as a drop in the stock market overwhelmed continued gains in home values, a Federal Reserve report on Thursday showed.