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“Climbing mortgage rates continue to put pressure on the housing market, pushing the cost of homeownership ever higher,” Hannah Jones, economic data analyst at Realtor.com, said in a statement. “There has been little relief for American consumers at the grocery store, the pump, and in both the for-sale and rental markets."
In Part 3 of their latest discussion, Mike Maloney and Ronnie Stoeferle investigate the the end of ‘The Great Moderation’, and examine how a new mindset will be required of all investors moving forward. We are in a new era, and some will have huge difficulties adjusting. View the whole report here.
‘The Risk Is They Break the Economy’: Markets Sink As Investors Fret the Fed Will Start a RecessionJun 16, 2022 - 08:58:19 PDT
There’s a risk the Federal Reserve “breaks the economy” in its efforts to tame inflation, Moody’s says.
Christine Lagarde Is Failing To Heed the Lesson of Last Decade’s Crisis: Act Quickly and Act ClearlyJun 16, 2022 - 08:53:51 PDT
Why is the ECB still fiddling over a potential eurozone crisis?
Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates has emerged as the biggest short seller of European stocks, wagering more than $5.7 billion against them in a bid to profit from a potential decline in value.
The following chart, from Bank of America via Top Down Charts’ Callum Thomas, shows that fund managers are the most bearish on global growth that they’ve been since at least 1994 and even more bearish than a couple months ago.
The GDPNow forecast for GDP fell to 0.0 Percent for the second quarter, but that's not the number to watch.
During a session that’s shaping up to be a rough one for both stocks and bonds, gold prices traded solidly higher on Thursday, jerking higher following a spate of tepid economic data out of the U.S.
Gold’s Floor Price Is Getting Higher, Biggest Gold Producer Newmont SaysJun 16, 2022 - 06:18:54 PDT
The head of the biggest gold producer isn’t about to join bullion bugs in predicting a price rally. But Tom Palmer does see a higher floor forming under the market as years of stimulus devolve into a fight to contain inflation.
“This is absolutely the end of TINA for the foreseeable future,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn. “S&P Earnings yield still looks relatively attractive on the face of it but I think earnings are headed significantly lower.”
‘The Economy Is Going To Collapse,’ Says Wall Street Veteran Novogratz: MWJun 16, 2022 - 06:12:46 PDT
“The economy is going to collapse,” Novogratz told MarketWatch. “We are going to go into a really fast recession, and you can see that in lots of ways,” he said, in a Wednesday interview before the Federal Reserve decided to undertake its biggest interest-rate hike in nearly three decades.
The Yen’s Weakness Is Another Sign That Something Isn’t Right in the Global EconomyJun 16, 2022 - 06:09:28 PDT
The yen’s decline is a byproduct of diverging monetary policy. A stronger dollar could hurt international trade and squeeze balance sheets of emerging markets that have borrowed in dollars.
Jun 16, 2022 - 06:09:28 PDT
The yen’s decline is a byproduct of diverging monetary policy. A stronger dollar could hurt international trade and squeeze balance sheets of emerging markets that have borrowed in dollars.
70% of Economists in a New Poll Say America Is Headed for a Recession in 2023Jun 16, 2022 - 06:05:25 PDT
It has taken the S&P 500 only 4 months, on average, to recoup losses from the 23 market corrections (declines of 10% to 20%) since World War II, and 14 months, on average, following the 10 “garden variety” bear markets (declines of 20% to 40%) during that same time period, according to data compiled by Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Jun 16, 2022 - 06:01:33 PDT
On the housing front, US housing starts plunged -14.4% MoM in May, the biggest decline under Biden.
Philly Fed Plunges Into Contraction For First Time Since COVID LockdownsJun 16, 2022 - 06:00:13 PDT
Another day, another disappointing macro data point in the US economy. While 'hard' data has been tumbling, we now see the usual optimism-filled 'soft' survey data giving up hope as Philly Fed's business barometer plunged into contraction in June (from +2.6 to -3.3), notably missing expectations of a small rebound to +5.0.
The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits was practically flat at 229k this week (vs an upwardly revised 232k last week) but the trend is clear from the chart below...
The Fed raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, the most by the U.S. central bank since 1994, as it seeks to tame red-hot inflation. The central bank faces the task of charting a course for the economy to weather rate increases without a repeat of the 1970s-style predicament when the central bank's interest hikes aimed at fighting inflation resulted in a steep recession.
Central banks across Europe raised interest rates on Thursday, some by amounts that shocked markets, and hinted at even higher borrowing costs to come to tame soaring inflation that is eroding savings and squeezing corporate profits. The Swiss National Bank and the National Bank of Hungary both caught markets off guard with big upward steps, just hours after their U.S....
Europe’s new-vehicle sales slumped for an 11th consecutive month as record inflation and falling consumer confidence joined prolonged supply-chain disruptions.