Precious metals news

Ronald Stoeferle, founder of the comprehensive gold market study "In Gold We Trust," reaffirms his long-term gold price target of $4,821 per ounce by the end of 2030. This forecast, introduced in 2020, anticipates an annualized return of just under 12%. Stoeferle's model, based on the gold coverage ratio, previously achieved higher returns in past decades.

A recent Harris poll for The Guardian reveals that a majority of Americans believe the economy is in a recession, although it is not. The poll also shows misconceptions, with nearly half thinking the S&P 500 is down this year and unemployment is at a 50-year high. In reality, the economy is growing, the S&P 500 is up by about 11% in 2024, and unemployment is near historic lows, highlighting a significant disconnect between perception and reality.

House Republicans are set to pass a bill preventing the Federal Reserve from implementing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) without congressional approval. Sponsored by House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act aims to address privacy concerns. While likely to pass in the Republican-majority House with some bipartisan support, the bill faces challenges in the Democratic-controlled Senate and requires President Biden's approval to become law.

Walmart and Target are reducing prices on thousands of items, offering some relief to consumers despite ongoing inflation. Walmart reported a 3.8% increase in first-quarter sales and announced price cuts on nearly 7,000 items, highlighting deflationary trends in general merchandise. Target also slashed prices on over 1,500 items, responding to the strain higher prices have placed on its middle-class customers, although it reported its fourth consecutive quarter of sales declines.

U.S. Treasury yields remained mostly unchanged on Friday as investors evaluated recent economic data. The 10-year yield rose to 4.478% and the 2-year yield increased to 4.9375%. Despite the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May beating estimates, it dropped to its lowest level since November 2023. April's durable goods orders exceeded expectations, and services and manufacturing sectors showed expansion according to the latest purchasing managers' index.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, nearing mandatory retirement, emphasized the importance of acknowledging uncertainties in economic forecasting and policy. Reflecting on nearly 40 years at the Federal Reserve, Mester noted that while transparency has increased, the Fed cannot predict future economic conditions with precision. She stressed that central bankers should adapt their policies as the economy evolves, especially in the unpredictable post-pandemic landscape.

Oil prices remained steady on Friday as rising U.S. gasoline demand balanced concerns over interest rate uncertainties following the Federal Reserve's recent comments. Brent crude futures were slightly up at $81.37 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged down to $76.85. Both benchmarks had hit multi-month lows on Thursday. Investors are evaluating the Fed's stance on potential future rate hikes amid persistent inflation.

Legendary oil trader Pierre Andurand predicts that copper prices will quadruple to $40,000 per ton over the next four years due to surging demand driven by the global energy transition. Andurand believes this demand will outstrip supply until the latter half of the 2020s. The renowned hedge fund manager, famous for his successful commodity market bets, made this prediction in an interview with the Financial Times.

Gold prices rose on Friday but are set for their first weekly decline in three weeks as expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have diminished due to the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish stance. Spot gold increased by 0.4% to $2,338.57 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures went up 0.1% to $2,339.80. The dollar index also dropped, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers.

In this episode, Peter recounts silver’s notable rise above $30/oz and addresses the latest FOMC minutes that were released this week, in which the Fed signaled that rate cuts could be delayed even further. Peter also calls out the SchiffGold Silver Breakout Sale to celebrate the metal’s long-awaited breakout. 

Join Alan Hibbard in this thought-provoking video as he dives into the possibility of the US Treasury revaluing gold to $20,000 per ounce.

The recent deal to raise the federal debt limit includes additional work requirements for some SNAP (food stamp) recipients. Despite misconceptions, SNAP, a major federal welfare program, has been in place for nearly 60 years. In April 2023, 41.9 million people (12.5% of the U.S. population) in 22.2 million households received SNAP benefits. The program operates nationwide and in select U.S. territories, with an average of 41.2 million recipients monthly in the 2022 fiscal year. Since its establishment in 1964, the program's reach has significantly expanded.

The Biden administration announced the cancellation of $7.7 billion in student debt for 160,500 borrowers, focusing on public servants and participants in the new SAVE repayment program. This effort is part of a broader initiative to provide relief after the Supreme Court blocked a previous loan forgiveness plan, bringing the total forgiven to $167 billion for 4.75 million people. This move aims to alleviate financial burdens amid rising concerns about the cost of college, with fewer Americans believing that a college education is worth the debt incurred.

Public dissatisfaction with inflation is impacting the reputation of major consumer brands like Walmart, McDonald's, and Amazon. Despite price increases slowing, their effects linger, causing declines in trust scores for various industries, including clothing, quick-service restaurants, and grocers, as reported by the Axios Harris Poll 100. The phenomena of sticker price hikes and "shrinkflation" have fueled political debate, but consumer buying habits remain largely unchanged, even as companies like Coca-Cola and PepsiCo pass on higher costs with minimal backlash.

Copper prices stabilized after experiencing their biggest drop in nearly two years. The decline followed an all-time high of over $11,000 per ton, driven by profit-taking and reduced demand from Chinese factories unwilling to pay record prices. The drop was also influenced by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation. Despite this, China's commitment to increasing stimulus and tightening supplies may keep prices high in the short term.

For decades, US Treasuries have outperformed gold as a safe investment. However, this trend is shifting due to growing debt concerns. While bonds have traditionally been favored for their steady income and backing by the US economy, recent years have seen declining returns, with the Bloomberg Treasury Total Return Index dropping 11% from its 2020 peak. In contrast, gold, valued as a scarce commodity and inflation hedge, has seen a 15% gain this year, challenging bonds' status as the ultimate haven.

According to market expert Ed Yardeni, one group has injected $76 trillion in savings into the economy and are primarily responsible for helping prevent a recession: Baby Boomers. Their increased spending on services like restaurants, travel, and healthcare is boosting payrolls and incomes, countering traditional recession indicators that focus on the goods economy. Yardeni argues that this generation's spending habits, particularly as they retire, are crucial in sustaining economic growth despite widespread recession fears.

Silver is up roughly 33% year to date, driven by factors like growing industrial demand and its emerging role as a hedge against inflation.

As the Federal Reserve approaches the end of its inflation-fighting efforts, a key question arises: will prices for goods continue to drop? Significant declines in prices for items like apparel and used cars helped reduce inflation faster than expected in late 2023, but the pace has slowed in early 2024, leading to higher inflation readings. Policymakers are divided on whether supply chains have fully recovered from pandemic and war disruptions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is optimistic about further price reductions, while some colleagues remain doubtful.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits decreased last week, indicating a strong labor market that continues to bolster the economy. This marks the second consecutive weekly decline, reversing most of the earlier increase this month. Despite slower job growth due to past Federal Reserve rate hikes, layoffs remain low. Initial claims fell by 8,000 to 215,000, below the forecasted 220,000, with significant drops in California and Indiana. Economist Robert Frick noted that the feared increase in claims has not materialized, affirming the labor market's robustness.