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After the June FOMC meeting and the Fed's 75- basis point interest rate hike, I argued that the central bank is totally winging it. Reading between the lines in the minutes from that June meeting seems to bear this out. The Fed appears to be in reaction mode. The question becomes what will it react to next? How long will the hawks keep flying as the economy tanks?
When the mighty Ancient Roman Empire hit its "Energy Cliff," the collapse of the civilization was only a matter of time.  In this update, I show more details on how the Ancient Roman Empire hit the Energy Cliff, thus impacting its ability to produce silver for its key monetary coin. Therefore, there is no coincidence...
    Looking Forward 90 Days
Jul 6, 2022 - 12:52:58 PDT
As Q3 begins, the narrative of higher U.S. interest rates and a soaring dollar continues. But what will the narrative be by the end of Q3? Answer that question and you'll know where COMEX precious metals prices are headed.
Seek to at all times remain more calm than the rest of the investing herd. Don't be the last buyer. It's not really yours until you ...
    Rare Gold-Silver Crystal Sighting: Report July 6, 2022
Jul 6, 2022 - 12:44:59 PDT
Something has happened which has not occurred since 2009. The silver basis—our measure of abundance of the metal to the market—has gone way under the gold basis. This means silver is less abundant to the market than gold. Here is the picture.
Markets are still discounting low inflation. What if they're wrong?
    Recession Is Priced In; Stagflation Is Not
Jul 6, 2022 - 12:11:20 PDT
the market expects a return to easy money but NOT because the Fed has reduced inflation and instead due to troubling economic projections:..
    Social Security: $2,400 Increase Could Be on the Way
Jul 6, 2022 - 12:09:22 PDT
There are possible changes in Social Security revenues to increase benefits by next year 2023 with a possible interesting increase of $2,400 annually...
    The Trolley Car Problem- Part 1 The Fed's Predicament
Jul 6, 2022 - 12:07:59 PDT
The Fed and other central banks are caught in a trolley car problem. They must choose between two poor consequences.
Since the last FOMC statement and press conference on June 15th where The Fed hikes 75bps - its largest hike since 1994 - and the WSJ leak on the 13th, bonds have been bid as recession fears dominate and gold has been dumped as inflation anxiety eases. The Dollar and stocks have managed modest gains...
Federal Reserve officials in June emphasized the need to fight inflation even if it meant slowing an economy that already appears on the brink of a recession, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.
Many of the world's leading economies will fall into a recession within the next 12 months, according to the chief economist at brokerage firm Nomura holdings. 
The recession calls are getting louder on Wall Street, but for many of the households and businesses who make up the world economy the downturn is already here.
a cut of 3.0 mbd could cause global Brent price to jump to $190/bbl, while the most extreme scenario of a 5 mbd slash in production could drive oil price to a stratospheric $380/bbl.
A new poll shows that a majority of Americans feel that federal government actions over the past six months have hurt their families and that President Joe Biden’s policies have not benefited the middle class at all.
    Consumers Say 2022 Is the Worst Economy Ever
Jul 6, 2022 - 09:02:07 PDT
The threat is that households are the most depressed they have been since the University of Michigan began its long-running Consumer Sentiment index in the 1950s. When consumers are worried about their finances and the economy, the danger is a self-fulfilling cut in spending that brings on a recession.
    Eurotrash Signals Debt Deflation
Jul 6, 2022 - 08:23:23 PDT
The trashiest part of the European corporate bond market continues to signal that a spiral into debt deflation is increasingly probable. The chart below shows the ICE BofA Euro High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Yield Spread, in red, as an inverted scale.
Pent-up demand in time for the recession when supply might finally rise enough? This messed-up economy will continue to dish up surprises.
Generally speaking, The Federal Reserve cuts rates as a recession approaches. But not this time! The Federal Reserve is expected to raise their target rate by 75 basis points at the FOMC meeting to…
After recent reports that the US labor market had suddenly hit a brick wall, with mass layoffs surging...